Against All Odds

The time was precisely 16:12:45 (rounded to the nearest second).

Location: Random Chocolate Factory.

Approximately 9.6 metric metres above Hinata's head, a sizeable vat with a diameter of 0.81 metres, filled with approximately 25.4 litres (or 893.55 fluid ounces) of liquid milk chocolate, was about to convert the entirety of its gravitational potential energy into kinetic energy. Hinata wished it wasn't so.

Apparently, in her everyday life, she usually had Lady Luck on her side. The girl's luck stated that it was impossible for the accelerating object to collide with her. But a calculation of luck is never a very mathematical one. Therefore, it will not be accepted without a shred of evidence.

Her mean reaction time in secondary school rounders had been 1.04 seconds. Her average initial speed had been 1.5 metres per second – the only speed that mattered because the incoming projectile would simply leave her no time for acceleration. At her current weight her body would convert 54 joules of chemical energy into kinetic energy. Her momentum would be enough to propel her out of harm's way. However, it had been years since she had participated in rounders, and her reaction time had increased proportionally.

Hypothetically, the outcomes of her current situation had discrete uniform distribution – easily believed as there were only two possible outcomes: to be hit or not to be hit.

Hypothetically.

In actuality, conditional probability had to be calculated. A statistical analysis of the building and its history showed that one person per blue moon would successfully be drenched in chocolaty goodness. One point five people per blue moon would have to go through the horror of the possible impending doom of having a nice new shiny coat of chocolate, but these one point five people would remain unharmed after the vat clattered to the floor and spilt its contents.

The probability that a first person after a blue moon would be hit was three fifths. The second: one half. The third: one sixth. Unfortunately, the blue moon had just passed and was not due for another two and a half years.

With a total mass of 68.1 kilograms, the vat hurtled to the ground at quite a speed, releasing a grand total of 6537.6 joules of energy; it hit the ground with a satisfying 'bang!'

Against all odds, Hinata was safely gripped in the arms of a stranger (or at least she thought so), 3.4 metres away from the spinning metal barrel. Realistically, the person who held her in their arms had only a 0.9% chance of being a stranger, seeing as Hinata only remembered her friends being in her immediate vicinity. But as she faded out of consciousness from her recent, uncalled for, thrill, she vaguely realised that she didn't really care about the probable error in her assumption.

Finis.

(Note: I haven't got a clue about the density of liquid chocolate so I don't know how much 25.4 L of it would weigh. And the probability stuff...not so sure I'm just allowed to make up numbers like that...)