The International Monetary Fund predicts that Japan's public debt will account for 242% of the GDP in 2014. Both the United States and Japan's debt exceeds 10 trillion dollars. How long can these levels rise safely?


Dying starlight flickered through the overhead canopy of cherry blossoms, and a bubbling river meandered through the Shinjuku Gyoen Park. Birdsong accompanied the verdant scene, but my mood was dark.

Today is my last day in Japan.

I crushed a petal in my hand at the bitter thought. In a few hours I would be on the plane headed home. The sound of a spinning axle redirected my thoughts, and I waved to my approaching host sister. Sakura returned the wave, dismounted her bicycle, and gave me a hug—all in one motion. Like most urban Japanese she traveled by bike, and could ride faster than any wind.

"Good morning!" My host sister greeted.

"Good morning." I replied in Japanese. "You followed me?"

"I was worried. Hanami was a long time ago, and being alone goes against the exchange student rules." Sakura yawned.

"Apologies." I bowed.

Sakura's face twisted into a delicate frown.

"My parents have set their alarm to ring at 6:30—that's in an hour."

Only an hour stood between me and the conclusion of the greatest adventure of my life. I sighed and tossed the newspaper I had been reading to the ground.

"What were you reading about?" A concerned host sister asked.

"Debt." I spat. "Both America's and Japan's have surpassed 10 trillion dollars…can you even fathom that amount?"

"No."

"Aren't you worried that we are living in borrowed time? That all of this bubble—" I gestured to the city around me "—will one day burst? Taxes and deficits have risen to such unsustainable levels…can it ever be fixed?"

Sakura sat down on the grass beside me.

"We can't know." She whispered. "I'm not sure what America will do, but I know that my country has begun to spend much yen on stimulating the economy."

"What if it fails?"

Ubiquitous to the Japanese was the ability to carefully choose one's words. My friend had been caught off guard by the forward question, but quickly composed herself.

"Life continues."

Sakura picked up the crushed petal before continuing.

"…Cherry blossoms die. Nations die. But the earth, the people…they remain. Hanami celebrates this transient beauty. Anyone can buy a flower's photo—immortal, unchanging, lifeless—but the Japanese people continue to sit under these trees every year. We recognize the beauty of a failing flower because it reflects ourselves. Do not let the darkness of debt blind you to the next season, for the economy will be good again. The flowers will return, and so will you."