Chapter 1
Methods of Prediction

"…will finally decide you've had enough of his attitude and, in anger, move to strike him. A man you do not recognize will hold you back and convince you to let it go. Afterwards, he will give his name, and you'll remember him as being an old friend you lost contact with many years ago. You'll invite him over for dinner, where he will introduce his wife to you and yours. Over the course of the meal, you will…"

When she finished, the man to whom she was speaking thanked her, paid, and left. She looked over her shoulder at the wall behind her. "Your thoughts?"

A hidden door opened, and a man stepped through. "After watching you work for the past few days, I'm not sure you even need to ask."

"I don't, but you need to say it. It is why you're here, after all."

"True," the man said. "Well, in that case, I have to say that yes, Aesera, your operation is completely legit. Shall we walk through it?"

"It's part of your job," Aesera said. "Do try not to take too long, though; I am expecting another client shortly."

"Something tells me you already know I'll be done before your next client arrives."

"True."

"Right. Well, first of all, you let your clients know exactly what you'll be doing. You make no secret of the fact that you or an associate will be observing them constantly and going through any aspects of their lives you think might possibly be relevant. Without consent, it would be an invasion of privacy, but you do get consent, and those who don't give it you explain to that you cannot perform your service without it. You don't tell them that you'll also be observing-or having your associates observe-other people as you deem necessary, but your observations of them never reach the level of an invasion of privacy. You may appear to an uninformed observer to be unhealthily obsessed with these people, but nothing you do passes into the realm of illegitimacy. I have to ask, though: how do you insure your associates make note of the information you need?"

"I don't have to," Aesera said. "You saw the devices back there, yes?"

The man nodded. "I did, but I did not recognize them. What are they?"

"The latest fonic recorders, fresh from the labs in Belkend. They're not even available for general purchase yet, but I've got special access. There's a guy at the fontech labs there who feels he owes me big."

"Why?"

"It was back when I was a Scorer. His birthday Score one year was what finally gave him the confidence to pursue the career in fontech research he'd always dreamed of, and I was the one who read it to him."

"Sounds like it had little to do with you."

"True, but he still gives me credit. His thinking may be wrong, but seeing as how it works to my advantage, I'm not about to discourage it. Thanks to him, I have early access to a lot of new stuff from the labs, and at a discounted price, too. I have little interest in most of it, but when there is something new I could use, I'm quick to obtain it."

"I see."

"The fonic recorders are an excellent example. Most models simply don't have the capacity I need, but these new ones do. My associates each take one when they go out to observe, and just one of the high-capacity fonic disks these ones use lasts all day."

"I see. What I don't see is how you could possibly go through that much information, especially while performing your own observations. And you do it for multiple clients at the same time."

"I have no difficulty going through several sets of information simultaneously, even while also engaged in observations of my own. It is simply one of the many talents required for what I do."

"Well, it seems impossible to me. Can't argue with the results, though. How you can possibly predict the future so accurately is beyond me. Only the Score is that accurate."

"And I do not use the Score. You should know that by now, Coren."

"I verified that, yes. Although I will admit to wondering if you're using information obtained when you were a Scorer."

"Although you know that I am not," Aesera said. "Access to personal Scores is highly restricted by the Order. Not even maestros have free access; only the Grand Maestro and the Fon Master do. The rest are only given access to Scores for the people they're reading for, and even then, only the specific portion being read. Exceptions are made very rarely, and even those are carefully controlled; you, for example, are not given access to my clients' Scores until I take those clients on, and were you evaluating only my methods and not the accuracy of my predictions, you would not even be given that much."

"True. And I didn't think you were doing such a thing, but I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't consider all possibilities. Some at the Order believe that you are getting such access somehow. That's part of the reason for this investigation."

"I am aware. Now, please return to the back room. My next client is about to arrive."

"Very well" He stepped back through the door.

Aesera leaned back in her seat. Yes, he'll be here momentarily. And he's not going to like what he hears.

The client, a man named Nelson, sat down in front of Aesera's dexk. "Before we begin," Aesera said, "I am going to have to ask for payment in advance."

"What do you mean?" Nelson said. "I gave you the advance. Half when I hire your services, and the other half after you tell me my future. I paid that first half already."

"It's not one of the more important clauses," Aesera said, "and so not one I specifically called your attention to, but the agreement you signed does clearly state that I have the right to require payment of the second half before I tell you what I've seen in your future."

"You don't normally do it, then. Why me?"

"People generally prefer to pay for a service after it has been rendered, but I reserve the right to demand payment first. I do so for one simple reason: clients are less likely to pay if they don't like what I tell them."

"You think I won't like it?"

"I am certain of it."

"And you think I'll refuse to pay because of it? I don't exactly like your insinuation. I'm an honest man. I agreed to pay, so I'll pay."

"Perhaps so, but once you hear what I have to tell you, you'll understand why I'm insisting on payment up front."

He thought for a moment. "Fine," he said, handing Aesera the money.

"Thank you. Now, let us begin. First, allow me to confirm: you do not want a full summary, correct? You want to know only major events or anything involving your marriage."

Nelson nodded. "Yeah. I want to know if-"

"You know full well that I will not reveal secrets about others. I will tell you only your own future; secrets of others will not be mentioned at all unless they play a role in what I foresee."

"Yeah, yeah, yeah. Just get on with it."

"Very well. As it happens, your suspicions about your wife do factor in to what I have to tell you."

"Then what was the point of all that 'I won't tell you' stuff? You know what, no, don't answer that. Just tell me what I'm here to hear."

"Two days from now," Aesera said, "one of your coworkers-we'll call her 'Jane'-will approach you. Although she doesn't know exactly what's going on between you and your wife, she can tell there's something wrong. She will ask you out to dinner. Despite her assurance that it is a purely platonic occasion, you will wonder briefly what your wife would think, but on account of your suspicions about her, you will decide that it doesn't matter what she thinks and accept Jane's offer.

"At first, you will try to remain quiet and refrain from answering Jane's questions about your personal life, but eventually, you will fail at this and, over the course of the dinner, tell her everything. You will tell her that you believe your wife to be cheating on you, and you will tell her why you believe this. The only thing you will not tell her is that you've been attracted to her for some time now. That will come out two days later, when she will again go out with you. At that time, she will reveal that she has similar feelings for you. Jane will begin making clear sexual advances, but you will resist them and leave. This resistance will crumble by the end of the week, and the two of you will engage in sexual relations.

"When you arrive home that night, you will be confronted by your wife, who will tell you that after several months' suspicion, she finally has proof that you've been having an affair with Jane. You will tell her she's wrong, at which point she will reveal that she finally got up the courage and followed you that day. She'll say that's what you've been doing during your late nights at work. You will tell her that you really do work late many nights, and she will say that she saw you and Jane having sex. She will ignore all attempts to explain that that was the first time, saying that she's known for months now. At that moment, you will realize that the reason for her attitude of late, which you thought was because she was cheating on you, was actually because she suspected you of cheating. She will leave your house immediately, and you will never see her again."

Nelson was silent.

Aesera gave Nelson a minute before speaking. "That is all, Nelson. Please leave."

"No," Nelson said. "You're wrong. I would never do that! I thought you were supposed to be the real thing, but no, you're just full of shit!"

"Your reaction is not appreciated. Please leave."

"Like hell! If you want to make up bullshit, go ahead, but that's not what I paid for!"

"There are no refunds. You knew that before paying even the advance fee."

"Yeah, but you said you'd be telling my future, not accusing me of- of-"

"I understand your reaction, but do have it somewhere else. Please leave."

Nelson slammed his fist on the desk. "Shut up, bitch!"

"I don't appreciate your language, either. Please leave."

The silence seemed to stretch out for almost a minute, then Nelson got to his feet. "Fine. But when that shit doesn't happen, I'm coming back, and if you don't give me my money, you're going to regret it!"

Coren waited a few minutes after Nelson's departure before coming out. "That looked like it could've gotten ugly," he said.

"Not really," Aesera said. "Anger happens, of course, but I haven't gotten the kind of reactions I saw as a Scorer. People believe the Score to be infallible, but I don't use the score. Despite my level of accuracy, it's far easier to dismiss my predictions. Nelson was mad because, in his mind, I conned him. Of course, such complaints have no legal ground, as I never promised accuracy; I promised prediction 'to the best of my abilities'."

"I see."

"Anger at Score readings has a different origin. If it's read from the Score, people think it's guaranteed to happen. Many factors then come into play. Frustration. Anger. Rage. Despair. Desperation. Hopelessness. And any number of other factors. Irrationality can take hold and drive people to actions they would never take otherwise. Most do not act against the Scorer, but enough do that every Scorer has seen it at least once or twice. It would, of course, be worse were it not forbidden to read a Score of unexpected death."

"A rule you still follow, it seems. I'm sure you're aware that Nelson will soon die."

Aesera nodded. "His wife's mental condition is fragile, a fact he has never been aware of. An abusive childhood and adolescence left her with an almost nonexistent sense of self-worth. She has been on the brink of suicide many times, and is alive now only because of Nelson. Nelson's betrayal will destroy what little sense of self-worth she has. Finally convinced that her life has absolutely no value, she will kill herself. Nelson will blame himself for her death, and before long, he will atone in the only manner he can think of and commit suicide himself."

"I've always wondered why there's a blanket ban on reading such Scores," Coren said. "You'd think a lot of people's lives would be saved if they knew they were about to do something that would end in their death."

"The Order doesn't exist to help people. It exists to uphold the Score. You know that."

"A good point, I guess, as much as I dislike it. What about you? You're not bound by those rules, since you don't use the Score. Why don't you tell people of impending deaths?"

"Because at the moment, I want to avoid antagonizing the Order. It's hard for them to condemn be for doing exactly what they do, even if my methods of prediction are different, but if I broke the rules, things would be different."

"You drew our attention anyways, or else I wouldn't be here."

"This investigation is not in response to anything I've done. It is simply to confirm the legitimacy of what I'm doing." Not that you were told why they're really interested. "Were I to have broken rules, I expect there would be a greater level of hostility. Besides, in Nelson's case, it would not have mattered."

"Oh?"

"He's dismissing what I told him as false. Had I said more, he would also have dismissed that. And though he is angry at me, what I told him will, for a combination of reasons, have slipped his mind when his coworker approaches him. These reasons will include, but not be limited to, his existing attraction to her, his frustration at his wife's behavior, and a hard couple days at work that will leave him mentally exhausted. His future is one that will not change."

Coren was silent for a moment. "It's an unpleasant situation," he said. "Telling people their futures affects what those futures are. If a man is read his Score and told he will kill himself at a certain date, some would make sure to avoid this, but others would do the deed just because they were told it would happen."

"Yes, and this also holds true for murder, rape, and other things. It's not just by chance that reading people those portions of their Scores is prohibited."

Coren chuckled. "And most people think the Scorer's trade is an easy one. Very few understand just how taxing it can be."

"Indeed."

Aesera was going over recordings when Coren walked in. "Ah, Coren," she said, not even bothering to look up. "Here to bid farewell, are you not?"

Coren nodded. "This is your official notice that I've concluded my investigation. I will shortly be boarding a ship for my return to Daath."

"With the conclusion that there's nothing illegitimate about what I do."

"Yes. You may continue your business unimpeded." He started to walk out, then stopped and turned around. "You know, I'm curious: why Chesedonia? I understand why an independent Scorer would set up here, but your methods take far too long for use on travelers."

"There are plenty of people who live here," Aesera said. "I have no shortage of clients."

"True, but I can't imagine it was easy getting established, People aren't exactly looking for an alternative to the Score. What gets people to choose you over a Scorer?"

Aesera finally looked up at him. "Official Order readings are not freely available, as you read for individuals only their birthday Scores. And the so-called 'traveling Scorers' have to read the Score directly, as the Order doesn't make Yulia's transcriptions of the Score available to independent Scorers. This, of course, often has the result of making what they read hard to understand. Readings from the best tend to be fairly easily deciphered-although even their readings don't have the clarity of Yulia's-but they're harder for the general public to get access to, as they tend to be employed as personal Scorers by wealthy individuals and families. I, on the other hand, am available, and my predictions are very clear. Yes, people who approach me are often highly skeptical, and many can be hesitant to take a chance, but I do get accurate results, which goes a long way towards eliminating skepticism."

"I see. Why not just read the Score as an independent Scorer, though? Form what I was told by the Order, you were one of the better Scorers they had."

"That is correct," Aesera said, "but I do not want to be reliant on the Score."

"Why not? You wouldn't have to overcome skepticism, or employ associates, and it wouldn't take nearly as long per person, either."

"I have my reasons. I'd rather not go into it. Besides, I believe the next ship to Daath leaves within the hour, does it not?"

"Yes, but we're not exactly very far from the port. There's enough time, I'd think."

"You'd think wrong. And we've gotten off topic, too; you originally wanted to know why I'm here in Chesedonia, correct?"

"Well, yes, that's true. Very well. You don't have to tell me anything you don't want to. So yes, let's get back to the original question. I'd think you'd fit in better in a smaller town, one without an Order Scorer assigned to it."

"Independent Scorers like to set up in such places, so it's not like it would help too much."

"There are many villages without even that, though, aren't there?"

"Yes, and in fact, I did indeed begin in one, a small farming village near St. Binah."

"Engeve?"

"No, Engeve's got a couple independent Scorers set up there. It may be small, but it does get a fair number of tourists coming to see the cheagles, or at least it does when there's not a war on the horizon. It's in the same general area, though."

"I see. But you moved elsewhere."

"I did. I've plied my trade in Grand Chokmah, Baticul, Belkend, and other cities since leaving the Order."

"That was, what, two years ago?"

"Almost," Aesera said. "Not quite at the two-year mark yet, but close. Anyways, I've been in several locations in that time."

"And now you're in Chesedonia. But why? Did something draw you here in particular?"

"I'm afraid that's not something I can discuss very much about. I'll tell you this much, though: have you heard about what's happening at Akzeriuth?"

"Just rumors. Apparently, it's been a while since anybody from there's shown up anywhere else, so the rumors are flying."

"It's the miasma," Aesera said. "It's not true that nobody's made it out; a couple people have." Not that that's how I know what's happening there. "A mining team dug too deep in the wrong spot, and the miasma began flowing into the mines."

"Oh. Um…"

"Relief efforts are underway. Commandant Grants himself came through the city earlier today. Just long enough to board a ship to Kaitzur, but he was here."

"Commandant Grants was here, too?"

"'Too'?"

"A merchant came in from the oasis about an hour ago," Coren said. "Apparently, at least two of the God-Generals are in the area."

What? Why are the God-Generals… "Which ones?"

"Sync the Tempest and Largo the Black Lion. And there are unconfirmed reports that a mysterious third individual is with them."

If there is, that's probably Asch. Asch the Bloody was easily the most mysterious of the six; nobody seemed to know much of anything about him. Even reports of his physical appearance tended to vary, as he almost never appeared in public places, meaning that he was only seen by travelers, and even they usually got only a brief glimpse. Understandable, given his... unusual situation. But what are they doing out there? "Any ideas why they'd be out there?"

"The merchant who came in says that he saw them himself on his way here, and that there was a fourth person with them. Apparently, nobody else has seen this person, but if the man is correct-which I doubt-then the God-Generals are there as a personal escort for Fon Master Ion."

All Aesera said was, "You're right. That does seem unlikely." Her thoughts, on the other hand, went down a completely different track. The only thing I can think of that they'd need Ion for out there would be to access the Sephiroth at the Zao Ruins. But why?What do they want to do there? And if Sync's there, why do they need Ion at all? Is even just breaking a Daathic seal really too draining for him?

"Anyways," Coren said, "Commandant Grants is on his way to Akzeriuth."

"Yes, and I'm expecting a party led by the son of Duke Fabre to come through as well. In fact, I'm surprised they weren't with Grants."

"What makes you think that?"

"I can't tell you. I can, however, say that the reason I'm here in Chesedonia is because I've been expecting this to happen."

"Um…"

"Again, I can't tell you. I was instructed to keep that secret by none other than Grand Maestro Mohs himself."

"Um."

"Anyways, it is my intent to proceed to Akzeriuth behind the young Fabre's party. I want to be there myself." Not in the actual city, of course, but close enough to witness whatever is going to happen there.

"I see."

Aesera chuckled. "I seem to have unsettled you somewhat."

"It's nothing. You just…"

"Don't worry about it. I expected that reaction."

"I see."

"Is that all you wanted to ask me?" Not that I don't already know the answer.

"Well, um, no," Coren said. "I… well, I'm curious as to why you left the Order. Most Scorers who leave can't handle the stresses of the job, but what you do seems like it has those same factors. So why did you leave?"

"Again," Aesera said, "I can't tell you. And yes, its related to what Mohs ordered me to keep silent about. I am not to tell anyone why I left."

"Right. I won't ask you what that's about; I want to, but you can't tell me. Is that whay you tell everyone who asks why you left?"

"You're the first to ask. I don't mention that I used to be a Scorer, although I'm not exactly trying to keep it secret. As for those who do, for whatever reason, know, well, enough Scorers leave that my own departure doesn't looks unusual at all.

"You know, you'd think the high turnover would clue people into the fact that it's not quite as easy a job as most people think."

"To be fair," Aesera said, "the job itself is easy. What gets people are the stresses inherent in knowing what's going to happen. The ugly parts of the Score aren't read, so people don't know how much misfortune is written in it."

"It's public knowledge that we don't read those parts, though."

"Such a thing does little to dissuade notions ingrained over a lifetime's experience. There's a difference between being informed of something and knowing it. Only a Scorer can truly understand what it's like."

I have to wonder what it was like for Yulia," Coren said. "We only see what happens in the fragments we read. She saw it all, everything that was going to happen. All the positives, but also all the negatives. All the war, famine, disease, all of it. What could that possibly have been like?"

"I've often wondered about that myself," Aesera said. "I sometimes feel a need to understand her, as I may well be the only one who can."

"And why is that?"

"Who could possibly understand what it means to be a prophet other than another prophet?"

Coren was silent for a moment. "You would call yourself a prophetess?"

"Am I not one? Scorers are not prophets; they simply repeat Yulia's prophecies. But I do not use the Score. I predict the future myself, and is that not what makes a prophet?"

"You study people's lives and the lives of those around them, and make predictions based on what you observe."

"So? The methods matter not; it is still prophecy."

Coren scoffed at her claim. "Yulia predicted the future of every person in the world for thousands of years."

"Not quite. Yulia brought forth and read the Score through Lorelei. Even so, she was still a prophetess. What she brought forth through Lorelei was raw information, which is exactly what I use. But her information was far more complete and much more far-reaching. She pieced it together, deciphered its meaning, and inscribed this meaning onto the seven Fonstones. Even then, she had Lorelei's aid-even a thousand lifetimes wouldn't be enough to go through that much information without Lorelei's aid-but she was still a prophetess."

"Are you saying you could do the same?"

"Given the same circumstances. Of course, that's only for individuals. For the world as a whole, no, I don't need that. Predicting the course of the world is really quite simple. The countless minor variables that one must worry about when predicting the future of individuals are irrelevant on a national or global level. Or even just a city-wide level, although as the scope gets smaller, the relevant variables get larger in number. The larger the scale, the variables that matter become far fewer. So yes, I can predict the world's future quite easily."

"Yeah? Well, could you do it as well as Yulia?"

"Yes. In fact, I foresee a day when the Score will no longer be read, when Yulia's prophecy will be no more. When I will be the world's only true prophet." Aesera stood and approached Coren as she spoke. "When a word from me will direct the course of nations. When a population desperate for knowledge of what is to come will bow to me, and I will be worshipped as Yulia once was."

"I… um… uh… that was…"

Aesera laughed. "Grandiose? Unexpected? Unsettling?"

Aesera's little display had, indeed, clearly shaken Coren. "…Among other things."

"I spoke only the truth."

"Right. You know what? You're crazy." He exited quickly, calling back over his shoulder as he did. "And I'm adding that to my report!"

Aesera watched him go. And that, of course, is exactly what I want you to do.

And so it begins.

A few notes:

As may be apparent, this story is going to have a significant focus on what a world with an all-encompasing prophecy that people believe to be absolute would really be like. The game, sadly, doesn't really get into that; sure, it's mentioned a few times, but the issue that it focuses on the societal implications of is that of the replicas. So I'm writing the story about the implications of something like the Score.

Now, that being said, this is definitely a character-focused story. Of the characters I've come up with, Aesera is easily the one I find most interesting. I'm hoping she's captured your interest (if nothing else, you probably have quite a few unanswered questions about her right now), but if not, well, just wait until the next chapter. She is, in my experience, quite a unique character (although this doesn't mean that she actually is. There may well be other characters like her; I just haven't found them yet).

As far as canon characters go, I have a very strong aversion to using them (unless I'm writing a Touhou fic, sincet that series leaves most of them fairly undeveloped precicely to give people such as fanfic writers room to work in their own interpretation). They will, as demonstrated in this chapter, be mentioned as is appropriate, but don't expect any of them (except for maybe some minor NPCs) to actually appear. Hell, if I didn't need the shift away from the Score for the story I want to tell, I would have set it far enough away from the time of the game that none of the canon characters would be alive at all.

On a final note, updates will likely be somewhat sporatic, especially since I'm simultaniously writing another story (the Touhou fic Radiant Decay). Since I intend to write whichever one I feel more like writing at the time I sit down to write, time between updates will likely fluxuate significantly, and there may be times where the next chapter doesn't come for quite a while. Be assured, though, that I have every intention of finishing this story.

Anyways, I only have one more thing to say right not, and that is that I strongly encourage you to give reviews.

I hope you enjoy the story.