A/N: Hey there people! This story came to me when I considered that there were loads of stories that dealt with Tony having kids he didn't know about, but very few about what would happen if Tony thought his child was dead (I love the drama and keeping characters in the dark) It also ties in really nicely with the name of the story; if you are interested please just google The Black Swan Theory!

I can't promise updates will be regular to the day, but I have about ten chapters written already so to start off with I'll try and be good! Please read and review it's really appreciated!

Just to clarify this is set after the events of Avengers Assemble but doesn't include Age of Ultron.
Enjoy!
Lucksby xx

CHAPTER 1

"Today we're remembering the past. What happened here last year was a terrible wakeup call, but you know what? It brought us together. It taught us that no matter what we lose, there is always something to live for."

Tony Stark looked around at the people cramming the square outside of Stark Tower, nostalgia sweeping over him. Visibly New York was healing, but the scars where still there; it had only been a year since the day, and whilst he usually didn't like serious, meaningful speeches, this one felt natural.

"With that in mind I just want to say a few words about the dedication of the newly reopening Avengers Tower."

There were cheers from the assembled crowd at that; the Avengers were especially appreciated here, obviously.

"What happened here last year made me think. Dangerous I know, but nonetheless it made me consider the things that are most important. Not money, although that's nice, not power, although that's good too, but family and friends. That's why I, well I wanted to share this with you all, because I don't want anyone else to end up like me."

Next to him Pepper Potts furrowed her brow slightly. She had known that Tony, being Tony, would never just read the cards she had prepared, but she was lost as to the tangent that he had suddenly gone off on. In fact, she wasn't aware that they were dedicating the tower to anyone…

"You see, I was stupid." Tony said bluntly, "I didn't know what I had until it was gone, and that is something I will never stop regretting."

Pepper did now know where Tony was going with this and was, she had to admit, surprised. It was unlike Tony to breach this subject at all, let alone in a speech that would be all around the world by tonight.

"That's the marvellous thing about hindsight though, isn't it? Looking back and realising what you should have done differently. What you should have seen coming." Tony took a deep breath, "I lost one of the most important people in the world to me, nearly six years ago now, I lost my little girl, and-", his voice cracked slightly," and I will always regret not spending more time with her, everyday I'm ashamed because of that."

A hushed awe seemed to have fallen over the city; no one listening missed the gravity of these words, as apart from his close friends, no one had ever seen Tony Stark so serious and so sad.

"She's dead now, so they tell me. I have no closure, they never found her, she just disappeared in the night, she could be somewhere out there, but I am reminded every so often that the chance is just too slim. That no twelve year old girl can survive on her own in a world as cruel as the one I landed her in." He stumbled over the words slightly. "What happened to my daughter taught me not to take things for granted. So did the Battle of New York. I hope that you guys learn the same lesson I did, because living with regrets isn't nice. And I do- do regret it."

He turned to face the building towering behind him, "So I dedicate the Avengers Tower to Carenza Stark, my beautiful daughter, wherever you are. I love you baby."