A bother and a half

Arkin woke up, and walked to the bridge. There, the autokitchen had produced a pile of flavoured protein and carbohydrate tubes to eat. They were no match for real draga-grubs, but they were the closest you could get on a starship.

'So, Computer, what's your analysis?' He asked, devouring three tubes in one bite.

'Not good.' Came the voice from around him. 'The data is conclusive. I've studied the planet for 20 years, and it seem unavoidable. Within a few decades, the world while experience a series of wars that while decimate the planet. Chance of species extinction – 10%. Chance of societal collapse – 30%. Casualty rate minimum – 20 million over 3 decades of war.'

'And that's a minimum? Show me the calculations.' The computer showed the psychohistory calculations – the calculations that could predict how large masses of people reacted. They'd been updated to account for the locals, but the equations were recognisable. Arkin stared at the results.

'As the great powers consolidate power, leading to only a small number of states, with territory all over the globe, the chances of war increase as accidents are more likely. These wars will affect the whole globe. To attempt to counter this, the powers will create alliances with other powers. But this means random events could lead to a world war. Combined with increasingly powerful weapons, to counter the weapons of similar advanced powers, the wars will be brutal and unending – one war while lead to stalemate, or simple establish a new series of alliances as they see old allies of enemies. The result? Unending cold war or war.'

'That's depressing. I must do something about this.' Arkin's colleagues would have a problem with him inteferring with an alien culture, but he felt that it was fine also long as you were subtle. 'What would happen if I took over with mental control?' he asked. His species had long ago learned how to master mental control, as part of the development of mental sciences of which psychohistory came.

'No good. You could not control all, and rebellion would strike the planet. '

'And just the rulers?'

'Too many of the powers are democracies, so while constantly change ruler. Your mental powers will also be less predictable on a different species – and if discovered the results could be even worse – almost guaranteed societal collapse.'

'Hmm.' Arkin finished his final tube, and considered the situation. 'Democracies? Well then public opinion matters at this stage of development. If I go down with a projector field to look human, I could make some subtle changes to try to avert these wars.'

'You'll be fighting against the forces of psychohistory.' The Computer warned. 'It'll be difficult.'

'No harm in trying. Prepare a information packet for the planet - I'll absorb it later, and then I can plan.' Call him old fashioned, but he didn't think computers were really creative enough.

'Not quite the result we'd hoped for.' Arkin said, with a cup of synth-alro sap.

'No,' replied the Computer. 'The use of guerrilla warfare to try and reduce public support for war can be effective. It seems it failed for two reasons. Firstly, the technology is too low – without easy communications, the constant feeling of war and horror is kept from the public. The other is that the commanders were willing and effectively used tactics to destroy the local populace – when such tactics are used large scale, guerrilla warfare fails.'

'I know.' Arkin sighed. He'd broken up peace talks, and lead to war, for what? To give one empire a load of gold fields, justifying their wars. The Boers had been determined, but it all ended in nothing.

'Not all is bad.' The Computer continued. 'That particular nation has become more isolationist, and given us the first outrage at tactics like scorch-earth policies. Just not enough.'

'Well, we must make progress.' He looked at the map of the world. 'So, the empires are trying to control most of the world. To prevent large scale war, we must try and break up the empires.'

'How?' the Computer asked.

'Independence movements in those countries. If sustained, they should be able force there independence. ' Arkin looked at the map. 'Let's start with this one,' he said, pointing at an island off the coast one of the greater powers. 'It's small, but wants independence. If we can make one independent, then others will believe they can too. It should hopefully lead to the breakup of empires.'

'And while I do that, I need you to firefight. Let me know of anything going on that could lead to war.'

'Arrgh!' Arkin let out. After years, where they'd nipped into crisis's to stop them going critical, from Morocco to Serbia, and now the attempt to stop the war was halted because a driver had got lost.

'We nearly stopped that assassin!' The Archduke was supposed to help try and stop the rebellion in Bosnia, and now he was dead.

'The psychohistorical effects are undeniable,' the Computer stated. 'Eventually, something would have started the war. What it was is unimportant.'

'I was so close in Ireland too. No chance with war on though.' Britain had gone to war most recently.

'Who will win?' Arkin asked.

'It's too soon to say. Unless Germany takes all of France, then the war will continue as a long a single port remains. The others can bring in supplies and men unending. Germany will mostly run out of nitrogen compounds in about 2 years. This is assuming no technological developments.'

'So what do we do? Wait it out?'

'The chance of ending this war quickly at this point are less than 1% - even a land victory for Germany would simply lead to a future war at sea. I advice waiting two years for it to end.'

'Alright. Two years it is.'

Two years passed – Arkin wasn't pleased. 'They're inventive, aren't they? They now have enough nitrogen to fight forever.'

'Fuel is an increasingly large problem for them. But in a sense you are correct.'

The new tank weapons may break the stalemate though. Arkin wondered what do now. 'We need another player. One that can tip the balance.'

'On which side?'

'The Allied. The Central Powers are too weak, no amount of help will help now.'

'The only power with the technological resources is America, and they are too isolationist.'

'Hmm.' Arkin looked stern. 'What if there was to be war at their doorstep?'

'What do you mean?'

'Convince them that Germany wants to get others on their continent to fight them. To the south of them lies a multitude of possible enemies.'

'It will take time.'

'It always does.'

The war was over. The victory was unsatisfactory. However, they're was now a League of Nations to speak for peace. Arkin had made sure America was out of it though – didn't want them getting to powerful.

'Now Russia is the problem.' Arkin said. 'We need to restore a government – but not the old one. That was just tyranny. We should try to help the other faction.'

'The communists? When tried in our history, the results have not been good.'

'Perhaps it is better with this species. Has to be better than the old monarchy anyway. Meanwhile, we need to help the independence movements – Ireland should be done soon, and we can help others – like India.'

The Computer had a sound that was the equivalent to human nodding.

'Let's see if we can do better this time.'

'No, no, no!' Arkin cried! The setups had failed. There was war, and no one was trying to stop it. Meanwhile, treaties were being broken with no problem, while the nations lived in fear of a country somehow worse than the old one.'

'They've invaded Eithiopia!' The last independent country of Africa had fallen. 'Why don't they do something?'

'They did nothing at Manchuria.' The Computer responded. 'Now some fear war, while the others happily embrace it. This imbalance causes this chaos.'

Arkin sighed. He was so depressed. 'What is the chance of another war?' he asked.

'99% in the next ten years.'

'Do you have advice, Computer? What path leads to least destruction?'

The Computer paused. 'Do nothing. Let them go to war.'

'What? Won't that lead to destruction?'

'You should try to avoid the creation of super weapons during the war, but essentially this is the best way. The fear of destruction is not enough. Germany was beaten but not broken. They think they could have won. They could not. They cannot now. But they must be taught this, or the cycle of wars will continue.'

'So what should I do?'

'Let the war start, and make sure it finishes with the Furhur in his final city, his army broken, and then killed at the end of the war with the whole country fallen. If he is assassinated, then some may say he could still have won the war. He cannot.'

'So I let them kill each other? Why did I even try this? The result is the same.'

'Perhaps. The laws of psychohistory are not easily broken.'

Arkin sighed. 'But there is at least one thing I can do.'

'What?'

'To win, America must join.'

'Yes.'

'Then they can make demands of the other powers. Like the breakup of empires. They have always hated empires – I don't believe it would be hard to make them demand it.'

'And also to fight superweapons? This species with atomic weapons would be terrifying.'

'Agreed. We will be busy.'

'They didn't?' Arkin was shocked. The image of the mushroom cloud was in front of him, but he scarcely believed it.

'They did. The American atomics project was kept extremely secret it seems, if we couldn't find it.'

'With this released on the world, the destruction is certain.' Arkin was depressed by the whole thing. 'Is it better that only one nation has it, or all have it?'

'Not all but a few. It seems now that a new two sides have formed. While nuclear war seems almost certain, only one side having it increases it by two percent.'

'That the best you can do?'

'Error margins are high, but yes.'

'Well, 2 percent is 2 percent better. I'll hand over the schematics to the Soviet Union.'

'Well for once I'm presently surprised.' Arkin said. He was treating himself to some live gringle-grubs today. It felt good in his mandibles to eat real food again.

'Indeed,' said the Computer. 'The scale of atomic weapons scares even humans, it seems.'

'And yet they build more? I think they believe if they can strike without impunity, then they are masters of the world, so make faster and better weapons as much as they can.'

In truth, the situation was better than had ever been. The war spirit of Europe had been broken – they had union to try and stop it now. The empires were broken up.

But Arkin was still depressed. New pseudo-empires had formed – the banana republic and the east bloc. The arms races continued, and war was still being prepared for.

'And there is an imbalance' He ate another grub. 'The American heartland is safe. No missiles can hit it – and they have many planes to stop the bombs. Meanwhile, the base in Turkey can strike almost all major cities in the USSR. They will be tempted to use them soon.'

'Perhaps they could be removed?' the Computer suggested.

'Tempting, but the nuclear missiles in Europe can still strike the USSR. Turkeys are just the most extreme.'

'Well clearly they must understand this in America? Perhaps you could influence them to remove them.'

'No.' Arkin said. 'Suggestions like that would simply result in that individual being kicked out. None would accept it. No, what we must do is establish a counterweight, in the Americas. Where would you advise, Computer?'

'The best positioning would be in the Caribbean. Many are American controlled. However, one is not, and was recently invaded by America, but it failed. They would be very willing to deal with the USSR.'

'Wonderful. Let's get on it.'

'Those stupid humans! Don't they recognise a balancing act when they see it?' Arkin screamed.

'It was just doing what they'd done. And they call it aggression? They call it an act leading to nuclear war? Only because what they'd done!' Arkin started smashing up his bridge.

'And it failed! There are no missiles on Cuba! There's nothing to balance it, this planets just going to destroy itself! They barely avoided killing themselves today!'

'Well, I've had enough.' He huffed. 'They want to kill themselves? Fine. I'm leaving. Computer, take me to some uninhabitable planet. I think studying rocks for a few years is just the break I need.'

The Computer realised it should be silent. It instead engaged the hyperdrive, and prepared to jump.

And so Arkin left, and never saw the effects his final act had, the event that people later said prevented nuclear war and the destruction of humanity.