Introduction and Methodology
This treatise is being written with the goal of accurately piecing together what exact shape the economy of Skyrim would be following a Stormcloak victory in the civil war. I will go about determining this suitability by first observing the economic trends of Skyrim itself, and then within the context of the wider Empire. Finally, given the information I will gather, I will assess the economic case both for and against independence, followed by a prediction of what will happen if independence does happen.
Skyrim, and the Elder Scrolls series in general, often exist with economies detached from the lore of the game for the sake of scaling gameplay. As such, the methodology I will use assumes the absence of a dragon born and thus eliminates the unanswered question of certain individuals singlehandedly flooding the Iron Dagger market to reap great profits. Prices do not go up or down through supply and demand, rather through skill trees focused on speech and bartering. Such flaws to the basic human action of exchange almost kills this treatise before it has begun, and I will therefore discount such irrational behaviour.
Exchange is the crux of all economic action. Skyrim, like the rest of the Empire, uses money as a medium of exchange and so it is a step above a primitive and low-productivity barter system. What is also immediately observable is that almost all exchange is voluntary[1](besides that of taxation of course) and that opens the door to more solid economic laws which we can apply.
Firstly, that of rational choice theory: that economic actors in Skyrim's economy are 'goal orientated' and thus choose to make the action which furthers their agenda at the least cost. As an example, if a nord had the choice between purchasing wine or purchasing eggs, and his goal was to get drunk, it would be rational to assume the action he would take would be to buy the wine. This model can then be applied to all exchange within Skyrim and will aid us in predicting the reaction of economic actors to the circumstances of an independent Skyrim. The second assumption to make is that Skyrim's economy and prices adhere to the Subjective Theory of Value. Whilst it may be tempting, given the lack of many capital goods and the labour heavy production methods, to sit back and use the Labour Theory of Value, the subjective alternative is universal and more widely accepted in modern economic circles. The theory states that when an exchange is made both parties believe that which they trade has less value than that which they trade for. This is because, rationally speaking, one does not voluntarily make a loss in an exchange (even if those outside perceive it themselves, subjectively, to be a loss). To take a real-world example: the natives traded the island of Manhattan for a few beads from the Europeans. This exchange seems almost non-sensical from an outside subjective perspective, tinted by hindsight, but at the time it was most certainly seen by the natives as a mutually beneficial trade given how highly they subjectively valued the beads. It can even be said that following this transaction, the self-assessed wealth of both parties increased. Therefore, I will follow the notion that when individuals can freely exchange, the total wealth increases.
How does this relate to prices? Put simply, competition between individuals seeking to trade goods or services they possess for those they perceive as having higher value to them, using money as a medium of exchange, results in a market equilibrium. This equilibrium can easily be affected by outside influences which can alter the values first used when making decisions. To use a Skyrim based example: the civil war has led to greater danger of death to the general populous and, given individuals are goal oriented and wish not to die, individuals now subjectively value swords and armour more highly. As such, the competition for such goods and services (the services being the use of a blacksmith or enchanter) increases as economic actors rush to trade money[2]for this good in high quantities. This increase will stay constant until the cost is so high that the marginal utility (that being the subjective value gained) of exchanging one's property (money) for a sword or armour is nil and a new, inflated, equilibrium is set.
This initial methodological stage may come off as pedantic and overly complicated, but I assure you that it is imperative. In order to properly simulate the effects on a new economy, that being an economy defined by new borders, trade relations and politics, it is vital that an internally consistent set of laws are observed by which we can safely draw accurate conclusions.
[1] There is no large-scale state oversight into the economic actions of those who reside in Skyrim nor is there any such compelling of disassociation (bar Windhelm and the Argonians). Association is also demonstrably voluntary given the large number of bandit groups and the hegemony of certain settlements such as the Orc strongholds or districts in cities like Windhelm.
[2] It is worth mentioning that it is not money itself that they value as being less than that of a sword or shield. Rather, it is the opportunity cost (the alternative uses for the money which they are foregoing) that they value as being less than that of acquiring of sword or shield.