Game of thrones: Season 5: Episode 6.
Bowed? Bent? Broken?
A political analysis of the High Sparrow movement, the arrests of Loras and Margery Tyrell, and King Tommen's ( limited) options on how to deal with this new enemy.
( Spoilers)
Tywin Lannister's death could not have come at a worse time for his grandson Tommen, who has found himself caught in a political mess amongst false friends and invisible enemies, and desperately needs the sound guidance of a skilled politician.
If you thought things were all happy thoughts in Kingslanding last season, think again. The lower class is as starving as it ever was. The royal class feast with impunity. Winter is coming, the civil war has devastated harvests across the south, which means that the peasant class is going to go hungry come winter. Needless to say, the extravagant House Tyrell and House Lannister are not popular among the smallfolk.
And so they turn to a new thing: religion. More specifically, religious fanaticism.
The Sparrow movement attracts followers left and right, and they all unite themselves under the High Sparrow. How does a corrupt, politically elected, hypocritical noble compare to a man who donates his shoes to 'someone who needed them more', who personally serves soup to other starving people? The Smallfolk's devotion to the High Sparrow is immediate. Alas, Cersei Lannister, Queen Regent/Queen Mother, fails to read the signs, nor has she paid much attention to history.
She assumes that the Sparrow movement is a popular cult to use at her disposal. And so she renounces 300 years of history and reinstates the old Faith Militant.
The results are immediately devastating. The newly armed Sparrows take to the streets of Kingslanding, and wreak havoc on both the Merchant Class, and the Brothel business, culminating when they 'arrest' Loras Tyrell, and imprison him at the Sept of Baelor.
And when Tommen tries to intervene, it's clear they mean business. Whilst Cersei smugly congratulates herself for keeping clean hands, Tommen tries to talk to the High Septon, and is literally stonewalled- by a massive group of armed Faith Militants, guarding the Sept.
This is one of two scenes where Tommen has to choose to react or not react, and his decision to leave without a fight earned some heavy bashing from reviewers. But let's consider his options:
First of all, the Militant has left no doubt, none, that they will fight Tommen's Kingsguard to the death before they submit to his command. And Tommen is surrounded on all fronts, in fact. He has the Sparrows blocking him to his front, and the small-folk are calling him out on his questionable parentage. The last time we were in this kind of a situation, Joffery ordered the execution of a single man amongst a crowd of starving smallfolk, ( who were for the most part, unarmed) and a full scale riot broke out that lead to the deaths of several dozen guards, and the old High Septon. There is no doubt the smallfolk are ready for a fight.
Margery's arrogant reply to Tommen's retreat is surprising, considering how politically intelligent she normally is: had Tommen initiated a fight with the oraganized, armed Sparrows, it's highly doubtful he ever would have made it back to the Red Keep alive, even if by some miracle he reached either the High Sparrow or Ser Loras. And from there, things would have fallen apart. A vicious war between a bereaved Cersei and the Sparrows would have torn the city apart, with no one likely to come out on top of the carnage.
Fortunately, Tommen avoids acting rashly.
But he is thrust even deeper into the woods, when the High Sparrow calls for a 'hearing' for Loras, in which Margery is required to give testimony regarding to the charge of Loras's alleged homosexuality and wanton fornication. ( Worthy of note: A moderate Faith of the Seven considers Homosexuality and Fortification to be a minor sin, one not worth going to court about. The Sparrow's extremist movement, however, disregards this in favor of it's own agenda.)
Margery, of course, denies her brother's charges, but her testimony is undermined by Olyvar. ( I love how Cersei deliberatly presses the High Sparrows hot button of 'All are equal before the gods' by comparing the 'word of a noblewoman to that of a squire'. )
Long story short, Loras is tossed back in prison, with Margery accompanying him this time- for providing false testimony. She is dragged out to a dungeon by the Sparrows, right in front of Olenna, Cersei, Tommen, and his Kingsguard.
As many fans put it: Tommen had his final chance to impose the Crown's power over the faith, by putting a stop to the whole thing- kill or subdue the High Sparrow and his followers in the room, and save his Queen and Goodbrother. Instead, he deliberately stalls the Kingsgaurd from action and watches helplessly as his wife is taken away.
It's not surprising that people have started comparing Tommen to his great Grandfather, Tytos Lannister, 'The Toothless Lion', and Tywin's weak father.
And they again fail to see the big picture.
Before I explore Tommen's options, you have to truly understand just what the Sparrow movement is, and it has it's own historical parallel: The Catholic Church.
Back during Medieval Times, the Catholic Church rose to unprecedented power. The Pope had the power to initiate the infamous Crusades, great military campaigns that rivaled those of the King. Tens of thousands more marched in the name of religion than for the interests of their King. Eventually, within the Holy Roman Empire, the Church's power came to rival with the State, which resulted in some serious conflicts over who had the ultimate authority to rule- the King or the Pope.
The theme is that the Faith, much like it's real world medieval counterpart, has the potential to become a very dangerous enemy to the Crown.
Now let's go to the issue at hand: Tommen's hands are tied at the moment. He is in a position to act later, but now is not the time. Unlike with Episode 4's scenario, he has the definite ability to achieve immediate victory- The High Sparrow and his guards are no match for the armored and trained Kingsguard. But that road has serious consequences later on.
Whether the High Septon lives or dies is irrelevant: The Royal family will have to travel back to the safety of the Red Keep before the crowds react- and they will react, violently, the instant they discover what happened to their leader. If the High Sparrow is killed, the Sparrows and Smallfolk will riot and assault the royal convoy in retaliation, to avenge him. If he is captured, they will assault him all the same, both to free him and to punish the nobles for imprisoning him. Many, many lives will be lost- even if the Royal Family all make it back to the safety of the red keep.
And then what? Chaos is what. You don't need a leader to spread violence and destruction. Most likely, the enraged Sparrows will react in one of two ways:
1) Insurgency. Like the Sons of the Harpy that the Mother of Dragons is facing out east, the Sparrows become an invisible enemy. They hide when its convenient and they strike to weaken Tommen's position. Lets assume they do a repeat of their assault of the Merchant neighborhoods, and leave peoples business's in tatters and most likely commit murder.
Tommen sends out some soldiers to deal with them: the Sparrows lure the guards into a trap and slaughter them, like the Harpey Sons did with Greyworm's patrol. Sooner or later, Tommen's going to stop sending out soldiers to their deaths. Which means he's leaving the entire city to the Sparrows mercy. Sooner or later, the whole city turns against him. And now he's got an uprising on his hands- in his own capitol city. How long before the rest of the Realm decide that Stannis Baratheon, or Daenereys Targaryan, would be better rulers?
2) The more likely option if the Sparrows are not quite as organized as the first option would require: they commit a full scale riot. Considering that these fanatics have no regard to rational thought or logic ( why else would they imprison members of the Great House that's supplying the city with food?), this scenario is actually frighteningly possible. They set neighborhoods on fire. They kill whoever they don't like. The city will burn while it's streets run red with blood. The riot of Season 2 will be nothing compared to this.
And sooner or later, they will assault the gates of the Red Keep. Maybe they break in. Maybe they don't. But the city will collapse into a warzone either way. Again, Tommen's days as king are numbered.
There are times to act. And there are times to delay action, as advised by Niccolo Machiavelli. This was not a time for immediate, drastic action. This situation could not afford Tommen to be rash.
Tywin and Tyrion would have both delayed action, though what they would have done later is up for interpretation, as they never would have allowed this situation to develop in the first place. Cersei has made many political mistakes, arming the Faith Militant is by far, her worst.
Tommen is, of course, a young teenager, who was neglected by both his 'father' Robert, and mother Cersei. All his life, Joffery was in the spotlight. He was supposed to be king, not Tommen. Had Joffery not had the makings of a new Areys, Tommen never would have been King. Tywin only had a limited amount of time to teach him the means of ruling, and understandably, never could have predicted that this situation would occur, especially so soon into Tommen's reign.
Only time will tell how Tommen adjusts to ruling a fractured realm, surrounded by incompetants with their own agendas.
These are my own thoughts on the matter.