He knows he's lost her the day the interviews air.
She's going to pick that Mellark boy, he just knows it. She doesn't see Gale as anything more than a friend, an older brother. And now a cousin.
That's the plan – he's her cousin. Now that she and Mellark are 'star-crossed lovers,' he has to pass as an unnoticed cousin, not even a rival love interest. They'll come for interviews if she makes it to the final eight – no, when. He tells himself she'll win. And then Mellark won't matter, because he'll be dead.
Right?
He tells himself he doesn't care. She's just a friend. He could pick any girl. Besides, she'll probably die in the arena anyway.
But he loves her.
She kisses Peeta Mellark and breaks Gale Hawthorne's heart.
C'est l'amour.
He's reminded of that old story, from before, something about a tiger and a beautiful lady. And given the choice, would he rather have her die in the arena, or live to be a trophy on Mellark's arm?
If she dies, neither of them win her.
But if she lives, she belongs with Peeta Mellark.
As soon as the baker confesses his love for her on live television, the miner stands no chance. He's lost before the battle's begun.