They follow him in subtle ways.
Intentional or not - whether he's there or not - it doesn't matter. Gideon sees it in all of them. He sees it from a safe distance. Reads it in the headlines. And in the letters he sometimes receives from Reid. He does not write back. He does not want to influence them anymore than he already has.
He was the team leader in name only. In actuality, they relied on and looked to Hotch for anything important. It was best that way. He remembers well the days when Morgan was petrified to join him in the field because of his PTSD. He remembers how Reid clung to him like the father figure he never had. How Elle fought him, wanting everything right now. He remembers how Hotch was the only one he could really let his guard down around.
It is good that he left when he did. Watching Elle go rogue was hard enough. Jason had PTSD. He knew what it was like. So why had he ever agreed to let the victim of a home invasion - of a brutal attack - feel that unsafe again? He knows she blamed Hotch. He knows she should have blamed him. It was harder, still, to lose Sarah. In so doing, he not only lost someone he cared deeply for, but also, his better judgment.
Whether they want to or not, they follow him.
It is evident in the shame reflected in Morgan's eyes as Buford is led away in handcuffs. The shame that he could ever let something like this happen to him. It is evident in the lack of judgment the tech girl, Garcia, showed when she dated a man who wanted her dead. It is obvious in the way Reid refuses to bridge the gap with his father, for fear of being hurt again. It is like looking in a mirror when Gideon reads Haley Hotchner's obituary in November of 2009, and in the aching emptiness that Hotch must be feeling. It is there again when he reads Emily Prentiss's obituary in March of 2011. He knows because she was too skilled to let a small distraction get her killed, but she had. And it is there in every single secret JJ has ever kept for the good of the public and for the good of her team. She keeps them even as they kill her inside. He knows. She keeps them because it is harder, sometimes, to look people in the eye and just tell the truth.
This perceived influence - it may make him arrogant or insecure - but it is always there. He is positive that in the backs of their minds, they are cursing him for everything he did and everything he failed to do. He has failed them all. But he cannot do anything about it. Because if he does, Jason has no doubt that - slowly or not - his team would follow suit.
So he suffers quietly. He prays for forgiveness that he knows he should not be granted. Because, maybe, if he forgives himself, his team will have a chance.