Albus Dumbledore had not anticipated these events.
This was rather unusual for him, as he was rather used to accurately predicting outcomes and being able to manoeuvre circumstances to suit him. He prided himself on his ability to herald the greater good without having to resort to mindless violence. Yes, sometimes sacrifices had to be made, but as of yet Albus was able to say that he had not directly caused the deaths of any innocents on the side of the Light.
It would be a shame to have to break that streak.
Albus had initially been sceptical of the prophecy that Sybill Trelawney had given in her job interview. He had always maintained that such things were too optional and vague to be useful, and he had seen more than enough to decide that the woman was a fraud, but after witnessing the descendant of Cassandra Trelawney rasp a true vision of the defeat of the Dark Lord… well, the way that events had fallen into place had swiftly convinced Albus of its legitimacy.
Severus Snape overhearing a part of the prophecy was an unanticipated boon for the Leader of the Light. The young Death Eater had reported it to his master straight away, who clearly believed it to be of some validity as he immediately began hunting the Potters, who had both 'thrice defied him' and who were expecting a child at the end of July, 'as the seventh month dies'. That put the yet-unborn Potter into the place of prime candidacy of being the saviour that was spoken of, due the line about being marked an equal, and it meant that there was a greater chance of the prophecy coming true.
He suspected that the child and Tom would have to meet early on for Tom to be able to mark him as his equal, so Albus would have to ensure that that could happen somehow. It was unfortunate that it also put the young family in great risk of being killed by Tom, and he truly hoped that the young parents would survive, but he didn't hold much hope, considering the wording of the prophecy.
And if they did die, it would provide a strong motivation for the child as he grew older and he might even be able to play on feelings of guilt, depending on how they died.
Which brought him to another unexpected gain to come out of this: Severus Snape. The young man was shrewd and cynical, a prodigy of potions, an expert on matters of Dark magic, a master Occulumens and in a prime position in the Dark Lord's inner circle of most trusted Death Eaters. He was the perfect spy; ruthless, intelligent, talented and patient. What's more, he was filled with guilt over inadvertently endangering the life of the only person he had ever loved: Lily Potter.
Albus had, of course, known of the Slytherin's attachment to the bright, sweet Gryffindor during their school years. He even suspected that he had truly regretted the loss of her friendship after he had called her a Mudblood. But he had severely underestimated the deep love that he felt for the young woman. Severus had been willing to renounce his master and put himself in the incredibly precarious position of being a spy, all for the promise that Albus would ensure that Lily Potter lived. It had all worked out very well for Albus in that regard.
Unfortunately, ensuring that young Harry Potter could become the saviour who would defeat the Dark Lord had been much harder. He had, of course, warned the Potters and the Longbottoms (whose son, Neville, was another potential candidate for the prophesised child) that Tom was hunting them and that they should go into hiding, which they had done successfully for over a year.
Albus had honestly expected them to be caught sooner, despite being more than aware of the competency of both James and Lily, as Tom's ever-increasing anger prompted him to ensure his Death Eaters searched harder and harder for the troublesome couple and their infant son. He had sent Remus Lupin on more and more missions over time, so he was nearly always unavailable to help the Potters, and he was aware that Peter Pettigrew was one of the likely candidates for the spy they had yet to root out in the Order, the others being Sirius Black (although Albus doubted that it was actually him) and Mundungus Fletcher. Sirius himself had taken on a lot of missions, both as a Hit Wizard and as an Order member, so his time was too occupied to be helping the Potters with their hiding beyond what the rest of them could afford.
But somehow the Potters had remained out of reach of Tom and his Death Eaters and Albus knew that that had to change soon if he wanted their son to become the saviour they needed. A plan involving the Fidelius Charm came to him just over a week before All Hallows' Eve – a very auspicious time – which he decided to put into motion. The plan was for the Potters to go into deep hiding under the Fidelius, with Albus as the Secret Keeper so he could then write their location down and give it to Remus, Sirius and Peter as they would no doubt ask him to do. From there it would be a simple matter of making sure that one of their slips of paper would somehow fall into the wrong hands, and thereby prompt a confrontation between Tom and young Harry.
Unfortunately, that plan went completely awry. Oh, it was easy enough to convince the Potters to hide under the Fidelius, but he hadn't expected his offer of being the Secret Keeper to be rejected.
("Dumbledore, we appreciate the offer, but I think we should use Sirius. I trust him with my life-"
"So do I," Lily input quickly and James glanced at her appreciably before continuing to a shocked Albus.
"-and besides, you already have enough on your plate with the Order and the school."
"I can assure you both that it would be no trouble-" Albus tried to salvage the situation. Sirius Black was perhaps the worst person to be the Secret Keeper if Albus' plan was to work. He was smart enough to know that writing the Secret down was too risky a move – especially with the traitor in their midst – and unlike Remus (who trusted Albus implicitly for allowing him to attend Hogwarts) and Peter (who was always rather weak-minded and willing to do whatever a more powerful person suggested) Sirius would not be coerced into giving Albus the Secret in writing.
Albus was more than aware that the young Hit Wizard – the Black Gryffindor and white sheep of his family, so to speak – was less likely to blindly trust him. He was suspicious of any authority and prone to questioning and even disobeying orders that he felt were idiotic (a trait that Moody, with his teachings of constant vigilance, was proud of in his protégé) which Albus suspected had come about due to Sirius always having to rely upon himself as a child. Albus had realised during Sirius' years at school that Sirius was too self-reliant and had too much self-esteem for Albus to approach as a saviour and a mentor or to manipulate him into thinking that he was indebted to his headmaster.
He was also aware of the fact that Sirius' loyalty to his friends was extreme and unshakeable – just as Remus, James and Lily's was – and that he had a will of iron. One only had to look at his short but majorly successful career as a Hit Wizard to see that. He was already a legend among the ranks, although many were still suspicious of him due to his last name, and it was no secret that Moody was looking for the earliest opportunity to promote him to Auror. His extensive knowledge of the Dark arts, over-exposure to torture and proficiency in Occlumency – all due to his upbringing – made him a valuable tool for the Order, but his independence of thought – which had resulted from an eclectic worldview of a variety of perspectives – meant that Albus was unable to control him as he would have liked. Not like he could control the others.
"We know, Dumbledore," Lily assured him, cutting off his speech and his train of thought. "But there is truly no one either of us trust more than Sirius."
"Even with the safety of your family?" Albus posed the question as though he was testing them and not expressing too much doubt over Sirius' character. It wouldn't do for either of the Potters to become suspicious of Albus.
"Yes," James answered immediately and without thought, as Albus had unfortunately known he would.
Frustrated, but knowing that he would be unable to do anything, Albus just sighed and gave the couple a twinkling, grandfatherly smile, "Then I suppose it is for the best."
The Potters both returned the smile and Albus resolved to make another plan)
The one good thing Albus had managed to obtain was the assurances of the Potters that they would have Sirius give him the Secret, so although he wouldn't have a written copy, he would at least be able to visit them as he needed and hopefully he would be able to retain whatever influence he had with them that way. However, he'd still need a way to force the meeting of Harry and Tom that he was still certain needed to occur.
It was when he was in the midst of developing concepts of plans to draw the Potters out (he'd had the idea of a plan involving Sirius being held hostage, knowing that James would come) that Albus then received a letter that had turned everything right. It was the night that the Potters had gone under the Fidelius and as he hadn't had the Secret revealed to him yet, he'd had no idea where they were. When an owl came with the Secret written on it, Albus was shocked to say the least. He had not expected Sirius to risk the Potters' – who he was beyond devoted to – location by sending it through the post, but there in the young Black's handwriting were the words that allowed him access to the Potters' house in Godric's Hollow.
Not quite believing it, Albus had cast Finite Incantatem and had watched in interest as the weak disguise fell off the writing, which became that of Peter Pettigrew's, and the Potters' plan became clear. Sirius Black was a red herring, while the Potters' other friend, the unexpected, innocuous Peter Pettigrew held the real Secret. This was perfect. Peter was much more susceptible to the suggestions of those he deemed more powerful and was neither sharp nor particularly careful. And now Albus had a written copy of the Potters' location, which he could show to people if necessary.
Although, he was disturbed by the obvious implications of Peter trying to hide his identity as the Potters' Secret Keeper. That suggested that the Potters didn't trust him enough to keep him in the loop. Somehow, Albus thought that Sirius might have had something to do with that. It didn't matter, though, because now he had the advantage of none of them knowing that he knew who the real Secret Keeper was. He just had to find a way to get Peter to give the Secret to Death Eaters, whether accidentally or through… other, less savoury means. Obviously, he would prefer the former for someone who was on his own side, but if it was necessary for the greater good, Albus would accept the latter.
But it turned out that he didn't have to do anything in that regard either. Albus went to Pettigrew's flat when he knew the ex-student would be out, looking for something he could use to hold over the young man if necessary (anonymously, of course) but lo and behold he discovered instead that Pettigrew was the traitor in the Order, after all. Albus wouldn't have to do anything; Peter would betray the Potters to Tom all by himself and then after Albus would be able to organise it for him to either be caught or killed.
Or, better yet… Albus would make sure that Peter died before anyone could talk to him and then make sure that Black would take the fall for betraying the Potters. It would be likely that Sirius would be killed and thus removed from the playing field, and Albus would then have control over Harry (Lupin would not be allowed to take the boy, due to his status as a werewolf, and Alice Longbottom, the boy's godmother, would trust that Albus knew what was best for him). If Albus played the situation right, he would then be able to groom the child and ensure that he would grow up to be the child of the prophecy, and that he would win.
As it happened, events played out wonderfully, except for one detail. Peter betrayed the Potters, leading to the confrontation that Albus had hoped for. Sirius had gone after his friend and not only did Pettigrew end up dead, but he masterfully framed Sirius for everything in front of many witnesses. Sirius' hysterical state was fantastic for Albus, as he didn't have to do anything to stop the Hit Wizards who'd caught him (thankfully not Alastor's team) from immediately incarcerating him in Azkaban. From there it was a simple matter of not speaking up and letting everyone assume that a trial had taken place, proving his guilt. But despite all that went right, there was still one rather significant hitch in Albus' plan.
Harry Potter had not been in the Potter's house in Godric's Hollow when Albus sent Hagrid to collect him. The only conclusion that Albus could draw from that was after Tom had been defeated, Death Eaters had taken him along with his mother and father. That would explain the presence of the Dark Mark over the house, as well as the missing bodies. Albus had hoped that if the Potters had to die, that it would be quick, but he knew that if they had been taken it would have been long and painful. Albus had only hoped that he would be able to retrieve young Harry – who was most definitely the child of the prophecy after that night.
He had tasked Alastor, his spies and the rest of the Order to doing whatever they could to locate the Potters and retrieve Harry, but after three weeks without success, Albus had found himself losing hope. A part of him had toyed with the idea of intervening with Sirius' imprisonment. Black was an extremely effective force as a Hit Wizard, and Albus knew without a doubt that he would be consumed with finding the brother of his heart and his family. He would be more likely than any others to be able to track down wherever the Death Eaters had taken the Potters, and between his drive and his relief at being rescued from Azkaban, Albus might finally have the opportunity to secure his confidence.
But Albus never got the chance to do more than consider that course of action as then, three weeks after All Hallows' Eve - three weeks that had been filled with fruitless searching for the Potters; three weeks after Tom had been defeated – the Potters appeared on the doorstep of the current Order safehouse and Albus' plans had to change again. Harry, James and Lily were all alive and well and free, and Albus knew that he had to give up the opportunity to take the prophesised child in order to still retain some influence over his upbringing. He had to appear supportive for the Potters, or he'd lose access.
But it would also be best if he took the opportunity to ensure that any other forceful agents stayed removed from the situation. Namely, Sirius Black – who Albus would no longer have the peril of his best friends to indebt him to him, and who may even feel resentment for his release from Azkaban for taking so long.
More importantly, if James Potter arrived at the prison and saw the brother of his heart, starving, abused and mad as was wont to happen to the prisoners (especially those with the darker pasts, like Black), then it was likely that Albus would lose some of his favour, particularly if Sirius blamed him as he recovered. However… if James arrived too late and Sirius was either dead or worse, Kissed, Albus would be able to twist the tale. He'd be able to play on the guilt the young man would doubtlessly feel for his best friend's suffering and death, and he'd find a way to remind the young father that it was due to his lack of trust in his old headmaster that caused it all to happen – that caused his best friend to be imprisoned as a traitor and a murderer.
Yes, it would be better for Albus and the greater good if Sirius Black could die a tragic death in the cell he was wrongly imprisoned in. Albus was very aware of that as he wrote the words that he knew would plant the self-righteous suggestion in the minds of the humans currently and temporarily stationed at Azkaban. He did feel a small twinge of guilt, as he knew that, while inconvenient, Sirius was a good man and they were on the same side, but he was able to brush it away like he usually did with the knowledge that James – and likely Lily, too - would be more pliable in the future.
In the scheme of things, one injustice was a small price to pay.