1908
Chinese Imperial Air force now has two hundred combat aircraft (OTL Germany had 232 in 1914)
Guangxu Emperor does not die like what happened to him in OTL.
Japan captures Palawan the capital of the Sultanate of Sulu, resistance against Japanese occupation similarly crumbles.
Incumbent United States President, Theodore Roosevelt runs for a third term and wins by a large margin.
The Russian and Royal Navies conduct a naval exercise in the Sea of Okhotsk.
The Balkan war 1908-1909
Tensions among the Balkan states over their rival aspirations to the provinces of Ottoman-controlled Rumelia, namely Eastern Rumelia, Thrace and Macedonia, subsided somewhat following intervention by the Great Powers in the mid-19th century, aimed at securing both more complete protection for the provinces' Christian majority and protection of the status quo. By 1867, Serbia and Montenegro had both secured independence, which was confirmed by the Treaty of Berlin (1878). The question of the viability of Ottoman rule was revived after the Young Turk Revolution of 1907, which compelled the Sultan to restore the suspended Ottoman constitution.
Serbia's aspirations to take over Bosnia and Herzegovina were thwarted by the Bosnian crisis and the Austrian annexation of the province in October 1906. The Serbs directed their expansionist attentions to the south towards the Ottoman Empire.
In a search for allies, Serbia was ready to negotiate a contract with Bulgaria. The agreement provided that, in the event of victory against the Ottomans, Bulgaria would receive all of Macedonia south of the Kriva Palanka–Ohrid line. Serbia's expansion was accepted by Bulgaria as being to the North of the Shar Mountains (Kosovo).
After the successful coup d'état for unification with Eastern Rumelia, Bulgaria began to dream that its national unification would be realized. For that purpose, it developed a large army, and identified as the "Prussia of the Balkans." But Bulgaria could not win a war alone against the Ottomans.
Greece was also another power who had territorial ambitions against the Ottoman Empire, they hoped to finally settle the question of Crete in Greece's favor and they also wanted to reverse their defeat in the Greco-Turkish War of 1897 by the Ottomans.
Under Russian influence, Serbia and Bulgaria settled their differences and signed an alliance, originally directed against Austria-Hungary the year before, but by adding a secret chapter to it essentially redirected the alliance against the Ottoman Empire. Serbia then signed a mutual alliance with Montenegro, while Bulgaria did the same with Greece. Thus the Balkan League was formed.
Another power who wanted a piece of the Ottoman pie was Italy. They coveted Ottoman Tripolitania, Cyrenaica, Fezzan (Libya), and the Dodecanese islands.
Italian claims over Libya dated back to Turkey's defeat by Russia in the war of 1877–1878 and subsequent discussions after the Congress of Berlin in 1878, in which France and Great Britain had agreed to the occupation of Tunisia and Cyprus respectively, both parts of the then declining Ottoman Empire.
But Italy was still not confident enough that they could win alone against the Ottoman Empire. So when feelers from the Balkan League came they agreed to cooperate. The Balkan League made a deal with Italy, committing it to the war if the League entered one against Ottomans within the year. In return for Italian aid against Austria, The League agreed not to make a separate peace until Italy had obtained Tripolitania, Cyrenaica, Fezzan, and the Dodecanese islands.
The Great Powers, most notably France and Austria-Hungary, reacted to the formation of these alliances by trying to dissuade the League from going to war, but failed.
Montenegro was the first to make a move, it began the First Balkan War on 8 October 1908. Before the other allies could join in, the Ottomans declared war on the Balkan League on 17 October. The main theater of the ensuing conflict was Thrace. While one Bulgarian army besieged the major Ottoman fortress at Adrianople (Edirne), two others achieved major victories at Kirk Kilisse (Lozengrad) and at Buni Hisar/Lule Burgas.
In this moment the German Empire, already heavily involved in the internal Ottoman politics, officially opposed a war against the Empire. But in its effort to win Bulgaria for the Central Powers, and seeing the inevitability of Ottoman disintegration, was playing with the idea to replace the Balkan positions of the Ottomans with a friendly Greater Bulgaria in its San Stefano borders, an idea that was based on the German origin of the Bulgarian King and his anti-Russian sentiments. Sent feelers to Sofia even with a war still on going to discuss a possibility of Cooperation between both countries for mutual benefit.
The outcome of which saw Germany sign a guarantee to Bulgaria that it would intervene in its behalf if Bulgaria gets into a war with another Great Power. Giving Bulgaria (and to some extent the Balkan League) free reign against Ottoman Europe without the fear of British, French or Russian involvement.
Elsewhere the Serbian army broke the western Ottoman army at Kumanovo on 23 October. The Serbs then proceeded against diminishing resistance into Macedonia, Kosovo and on through Albania, reaching the Adriatic coast in December. The Greek navy prevented the Ottomans from shipping reinforcements from Anatolia to the Balkans, and occupied the Ottoman Aegean Islands. The Greek army advanced in two directions, entering Salonika on 8 November, and further west, bringing the town of Janina under siege. Montenegrin forces moved into the Sanjak of Novi Pazar and besieged the northern Albanian town of Scutari (Shkodër).
Then the Italians entered the fray.
An ultimatum was presented to the Ottoman government led by the Committee of Union and Progress (CUP) party on the night of 26–27 October. Through Austrian intermediation, the Ottomans replied with the proposal of transferring control of Libya without war, maintaining a formal Ottoman suzerainty. This suggestion was comparable to the situation in Egypt, which was under formal Ottoman suzerainty, but was actually controlled by the United Kingdom. Italy refused, and war was declared on October 29.
The announcement took Europe by surprise.
Up to the last moment it was believed at Rome that the Sublime Porte would accede to Italian demands, and that the Tripolitan expedition would be in the nature of a promenade militaire.
Without incident an Italian expeditionary force landed, and by November 20, after brief skirmishes, the chief towns of Tripolitana and Cyrenaica: Tripoli, Derna, Horns, and Tobruk were safely in Italian possession. At Benghazi alone did the Italians encounter serious obstacles, but the capital of Cyrenaica also fell into Italian hands after a two days' assault. Elsewhere Turkish resistance had been feeble, and in Tripoli order was so speedily established that the campaign seemed over before it had properly begun. The natives seemed to accept Italian rule with equanimity.
At sea Italy and the Balkan League enjoyed a clear advantage. Italy alone had seven times the tonnage of the Ottoman Navy and that is not even counting its Balkan allies or the Abysmal performance of the Ottoman Navy.
This paved way for the capture of Rhodes and several Aegean and Ionian islands of the Ottoman Empire.
Although, the Italian and Balkan fronts are too unconnected they however cooperated in the Naval front. Italian and Greek Fleets fought several battles together and cooperated in preventing the Sublime Porte from sending reinforcements via sea to the Balkans and North Africa.
Seeing the situation as hopeless, on March 1909 the Ottoman Empire sued for peace via the United Kingdom. The other Great Powers of Russia, France, Germany and Austria-Hungary intervened.
The terms enforced by the Great Powers were:
All European territory of the Ottoman Empire west of the line between Enos on the Aegean Sea and Midia on the Black Sea was ceded to the Balkan League, except Albania.
The Ottoman Empire ceded Crete.
The Ottomans would withdraw all military personnel from Trablus and Benghazi vilayets (Libya) but in return, Italy would return Rhodes and the other Aegean islands it held back to the Turks.
The borders of Albania and all other questions concerning Albania were to be settled by the Great Powers.
1909
Tunguska event in Russia.
US troops do not leave Cuba (unlike OTL).
Seeing the problems of trench warfare, the Chinese Imperial Army began training troops in what it calls infiltration tactics.
They were trained to strike swiftly and hard, moving in small groups; in quiet periods, they conducted trench raids, gathering intelligence and disrupting easy habits on both sides of the front line, while in battle operations, to negated the value of enemy strong points by evading them, finding more secure paths to positions deep in the enemy's rear, and disrupting their supply. In this way, difficult positions became much easier to overcome. The objective of infiltration is usually to destabilize and confuse enemy forces, target important enemy production facilities, or to soften defenses for attack by supporting forces.
Light infantry would lead these attacks. They would attempt to penetrate enemy weak points to bypass and isolate heavily defended positions in the front line. Infantrymen with heavier weapons would then follow-up and have a great advantage when attacking the isolated enemy strong points. Other reinforcements would then enter these breaches, and the entire enemy line would shortly collapse. The attacks relied heavily on speed and surprise.
The Great Powers declared Albania to be an independent state. Almost all of the territory that was designated to form the new Albanian state was currently occupied by either Serbia or Greece, which only reluctantly withdrew their troops.
The Serbo-Bulgarian War
The Serbo-Bulgarian War was fought between the former Allies Serbia and Montenegro on one side and Bulgaria on the other. It was originally fought for disputed territories in Macedonia. It however escalated quicky, it proved to be the match that lit the fuse to the First Great War due to the involvement of Russia, Romania and Germany.
During the First Balkan War, while the Bulgarians contended with the major portion of the Ottoman army in Thrace, the Serbs had occupied most of Macedonia. Austrian prohibitions prevented the Serbs from gaining the Adriatic port in northern Albania that they desired. The Serbs then sought to strengthen their hold on Macedonia as compensation for the loss of the Albanian coast.
The Bulgarians remained determined to obtain this area. The Peace treaty with the Ottoman Empire was of no help either since the wordings seceded the area to the Balkan League, not to any particular power.
Hostilities among the allies over the Macedonian question escalated throughout the spring of 1909 from exchanges of notes to actual shooting. Montenegro declared that it would aid Serbia in case war broke out between both states. Greece who finally issued their territorial dispute with Bulgaria diplomatically was surprisingly silent.
Russian attempts at mediation between Bulgaria and Serbia were feeble and fruitless. Since Bulgaria knew this would result in the Serbian favor and it was guaranteed German support in case of a war with a Great Power.
Bulgaria knew it could win in any war with Serbia since it had around six hundred thousand men and a thousand guns compared to Serbia's two hundred fifty thousand men and two hundred guns while Montenegro could field around twelve thousand troops. Bulgarian troops also had the qualitative advantage over Serbia and tiny Montenegro, as they are better trained, better led and better equipped.
June 22nd 1909 the Bulgarian Ambassador in Berlin met with the German Chancellor Theobald Theodor Friedrich Alfred von Bethmann-Hollweg, to discuss the fine points of the German Guarantee to Bulgaria given in the previous year. Specifically, if this was extended towards Russia in an event of a war with Serbia. He answered in the affirmative. Which was enthusiastically relayed to Sofia. This was the only green light the Bulgarians needed.
And a week later on the night of June 29-30, Bulgarian soldiers began local attacks against Serbian positions in Macedonia. These attacks became the signal for the outbreak of war between both powers.
Upon hearing of the Bulgarian Invasion of Serb held Macedonia, the Russian government sent a warning to Bulgaria that Russia would not allow Bulgarian troops to rampage all over Serbia. This warning was ignored. Bulgaria was quite confident that Russia would not dare intervene if it meant war with Germany as well.
In the words of the Bulgarian foreign minister, Dimitar Stanchov, "Russia will not fight a war with Germany over the question of whether Bulgaria or Serbia controls Macedonia."
The main Bulgarian attack was planned against the Serbs with their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th Armies (Unlike OTL where only the 2nd and the 4th advanced) this allowed Bulgaria to quickly defeat Serbian forces in the area. This led Serbia to call a total mobilization, it however took time to mobilize and move forces to the disputed area.
When the Serbians counter attacked the Bulgarian advance under General Mihail Savov, they were already dug in and held firm and Bulgarian Artillery were successful in breaking up the Serbian attacks.
Seeing the opportunity since the majority of Bulgaria's Armed forces were in Macedonia. Romania saw the perfect opportunity to take Southern Dobruja. Romania mobilized its armed forces on the 20th of July.
The Kingdom of Romania had the largest army in the Balkans, although it had not seen action since the Romanian War of Independence against the Ottomans in 1878. Its peacetime strength was six thousand officers and a hundred thousand men, and it was well equipped by Balkan standards, possessing one hundred twenty siex field batteries, fifteen howitzer batteries and three mountain batteries, mostly made by Krupp. Upon mobilization, the Romanian army could muster four hundred seventeen thousand men.
Russia two days prior to the Romania mobilization sent a diplomatic team to Bulgaria via Romania. To give an ultimatum that Russia will declare war in support of Serbia if Bulgaria does not withdraw to pre-war borders. This Ultimatum, however was never sent.
On the 22nd of July, when the Russian diplomatic team was about to cross Romania's border with Bulgaria. Bulgarian troops there who were already in a heighted state of alert due to Romanian Mobilization mistook the Russian diplomatic team as the Spearhead of a Romanian invasion of Bulgaria and opened fire.
The news of this inflamed the Russian public and the aristocracy in Saint Petersburg. Tsar Nicolas II himself was said to throw the glass of cognac he was holding to the wall when he was told of the news. The people wanted war. Russia began to mobilize.
Hearing of the incident the German Ambassador to the Russian Empire informed the Russians that the German Empire would come in the aid of Bulgaria in the event of a war with Russia. Germany mobilized as well and so did Austria-Hungary.
On 28th of July 1909, not heeding of the German warning the Russian Empire declared war on the Kingdom of Bulgaria. The following day Germany declared war on Russia.
Two days later France declared war on Germany.
A day later Austria-Hungary declared war against Serbia, France and Russia.
Then China and its tributaries declared war on France and Russia. (China also symbolically declared war on Serbia and Montenegro but both sides never saw combat against each other due to the distances involved)
Thus began the First Great War.
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I'll be concentrating on the Stargate part of the story until it catches up
Population of Great Powers at the outbreak of the War (Based on the Rise and Fall of Great Powers)
( in the millions)
1. China – 465
2. Russia – 135.6
3. United States of America – 91.9 (excludes Cuba, Puerto Rico and other Insular territories)
4. Germany – 64.5 (excludes colonies)
5. Austria-Hungary – 50.8
6. Japan – 49.1 (excludes colonies)
7. Britain – 45.6 (excludes colonies)
8. France – 39.5 (excludes colonies)
9. Italy – 34.4 (excludes colonies)
Total Industrial Potential of the Powers at the outbreak of the War (Based on the Rise and Fall of Great Powers)
UK in year 1900 = 100
1. United States of America – 298.1
2. China – 260
3. Germany – 137.7
4. Britain – 127.2
5. Russia – 76.6
6. France – 57.3
7. Austria-Hungary – 40.7
8. Japan – 27.6 (10% higher than OTL)
9. Italy – 22.5
Warship Tonnage of Powers at the outbreak of the War (Based on the Rise and Fall of Great Powers)
1. Britain – 2,174,000
2. Germany – 964,000
3. United States of America – 824,000
4. France – 725,000
5. China – 650,000
6. Japan – 575,000 (75,000 more than OTL)
7. Russia – 401,000
8. Italy – 327,000
9. Austria-Hungary – 210,000
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-"Does Spain still retain Cuba in this timeline? Likewise, did the coup d'etat againt the Hawaiian monarchy & the island chain's annexation into the U.S. still occur or was that butterflied away?"
Nope sold it to the USA, together with other west indies possessions of Spain. Hawaiian annexation goes like OTL.
-"Has China been dealing with the Arabians to get their oil? I remember in a TL where modern China was ISOT'd to 1915 they helped Oman take over the peninsula and in exchange were granted rights to drill."
That was modern China, here, oil from Manchuria and the Lanfang Republic would suffice, well more or less.
-"Will be irony to see usa the bad guy in this world war or facist usa?"
I rather have China fight a democratic USA. With a population whose nationalism is stirred up by the media, but not because of state control or anything but simply because they could sell more with such stories. But that's the Second Great War.
