Chief of Staff of the Republican Armed Forces, General Maurice Gamelin took a long moment to reply to his Premiere.
"Sir, I must remind you, most of our army is committed to the fighting in Iberia. Attempting to restore King Leo the Vth to his throne, along with the legitimate government. Resistance by the Nationalist forces has been much greater than we anticipated. They are receiving foreign support, and much of the front line is located in mountainous and hilly terrain suited for the defensive. I expect we will not be able to complete operations there until the coming spring."
Blum frowned. "That is not what you told me when I made the decision to support the Legitimists. You promised me we would take Madria within three weeks, and that any necessary mop up operations would be completed within ninety days at most. We have already been fighting for three months, and now you say we'll be there until spring? I thought we had the finest military in the world, why are things going so slowly?"
"The situation has changed," general Gamelin replied. "The Nationalists have managed to convince their people that our intervention is an invasion by a foreign country. As happened with us when the Empire crossed our borders, the Iberian people have rallied and are making a great effort against us both in the field and in the factories. The Iberian Kingdom may be a weaker nation, but they are industrialized and they do have a significant population. They have also received significant military aid from the Ildoan Kingdom. These factors, along with the difficult terrain, have allowed the Nationalist forces to check our advance."
The reminder about the Ildoans made Blum give an angry shake of his head. When he'd made his decision, no one had expected them to get involved. There was no obvious reason why they would, the Ildoans had no vital interests in Iberia, no close ties. The cause had nothing to do with the Iberian Nationalists at all. The reason they were sending over weapons was because of their ambitions in Libya, Egypt, and the Balkans.
The Ottoturk Empire was known as the 'sick man of Europe.' They had not been involved in the Great War, but had instead gone through a long series of uprisings and revolts throughout their vast territory. The Turks had managed to hold onto all their territory, but barely. Observers always expected them to fall to pieces, but they simply refused to die. The Ildoan Kingdom wanted very much to sign the death certificate and inherit as much as they could. They wanted to create a new colonial empire from the corpse of the Ottoturks.
Since the end of the Great War, they'd encouraged various uprisings and made increasingly aggressive demands of the Turks. A war would undoubtedly have already broken out between them if not for diplomatic pressure from both the Republic and the Allied Kingdom, as well as the threat of crippling sanctions. The British Empire had funded the Suez Canal and had many special interests in Egypt and Palestine. The Republic had similar interests in Syria and Mesopotamia. Sultan Mehmed the VIIth was a weak ruler who understood his situation and was willing to accommodate British and Republican interests. The last thing his country wanted was to see the Ottoturk Empire torn apart and replaced by who knew how many new governments. (A situation Blum found personally distasteful, given the Sultan made the Ancien Régime look progressive, but national interests were national interests.)
So, the Ildoans were helping the Nationalists kill Republican soldiers in the hopes it might weaken his country enough to allow the Ildoan Kingdom to expand. International Realpolitik could be a very dirty, messy business.
"What can we do to settle the Iberian situation more quickly?" Blum asked.
"We could blockade their ports, cut off foreign aid." Gamelin said.
"A blockade is an act of war. We are not at war with the Iberians, we are simply aiding the legitimate government there in restoring order."
"You may call it whatever you like Premiere, I am sure to our soldiers it looks suspiciously like a war. Especially to the twelve thousand casualties."
Blum shook his head. "Blockades require other nations to acknowledge them, otherwise an international incident is almost certain. I want no such incidents with the United States or any other Power. I most certainly do not want to stumble into a war with the Ildoan Kingdom. No blockade."
"Then I once again ask you to allow the air units to begin a strategic bombing campaign. Most of the enemy's industrial capacity is centered in just six cities, all within range of our bombers. An intense bombing campaign could cripple their industry and bring on a collapse in a matter of weeks."
Blum again shook his head. "We've already discussed this. King Leo and his government are inalterably opposed to bombing their own cities. He does not want to see us turn his largest cities into smoking piles of rubble. He insists our air force only target military units. I also do not want to be seen killing tens of thousands of civilians."
"Sir, you are asking me to fight this war with one arm tied behind my back. I cannot give you a breakthrough and swift victory if I am not allowed to fully deploy my military assets."
"I am sorry general, but for political reasons I must place these constraints on you."
Gamelin frowned. "Limiting military action for political reasons is unwise."
"I would remind you general," Blum rebuked. "The Empire lost the Great War exactly because they placed military necessity above political necessity. The Apostolic Democrats have already called two votes of no confidence against me. If the opposition could print pictures of Iberian women and children killed by our bombs, my government would be overthrown. This is not the Great War; our goal is not to win by any means necessary. Our political objectives are limited, our means must be limited as well."
Gamelin shrugged. "Then the only remaining suggestion I can give you is to call a full mobilization."
"Are you insane?" Blum gasped. "Did you not hear what I just said?"
"If we cannot bomb enemy industry and infrastructure, and we cannot deprive them of foreign aid, then the only other method of bringing a quick victory is to call up the reserves. With our whole force in the field we can overwhelm them."
"A mobilization requires a declaration of war! Let me say this again, general. We are not at war! If I signed a mobilization order my government would collapse before the ink dried."
"Then Premiere, we will simply have to continue to push forward as we have been doing. We are winning, and our ultimate victory is certain. It will simply take more time than originally expected."
"If you had told me in August we would need at least six months to capture Madria I would have refused King Leo's request for intervention."
The general again shrugged. "The estimates I gave you at the time were what my staff believed based on our information we possessed. We could not see how the situation would change."
Blum gave a weary sigh. It seemed the Iberian situation was going to remain a quagmire for the foreseeable future. With every Republican death, the political discontent was rising, but so long as the army did not suffer any major setbacks he thought he could survive it.
"And what is your estimate for Prussia? How long would it take us to capture Berun if Degurechaff tries to make a fight out of it?"
Gamelin paused. "Premiere, my recommendation is that you not issue this ultimatum. At least not until the situation in Iberia is resolved and the bulk of the army is again available."
"You just told me that will take months! How many soldiers will Degurechaff have under arms by the time we can finally pull out of the peninsula? How many trained mages will she have? How many tanks? How many planes? The whole point of the ultimatum is to keep her from rearming and violating the treaty."
"I understand that sir, but having fought these people before I have too much respect for their ability to take them lightly."
"It's exactly because they're so dangerous that we have to deal with them now, while they are still vulnerable. If we get rid of Degurechaff, then whoever replaces her won't dare challenge us. It will also make a good lesson for the rest of the former Empire."
"If we overthrow her government while she is trying to put down a communist revolt, won't that be tacit support of the communists?"
"That is a political matter," Blum told him. "Your only concern is the military. Tell me, how many soldiers will we have to invade Prussia with?"
Gamelin needed a moment to consider. "If we leave our forces in Iberia and our colonies intact, and use only our garrisons here, we could deploy about one hundred thousand men."
"So, we would outnumber the Prussians four to one! How many tanks would we have? How many planes?"
"We would have available for immediate use about three hundred tanks and a total of about five hundred and fifty fighters, fighter-bombers, and tactical bombers. Would we be allowed to use our strategic bombers in this conflict?"
"Not at the start. If at all possible, I want this operation over in a matter of days and with as little bloodshed as we can manage. However, if we run into difficulties, you will be allowed to use every weapon in our arsenal. Maintaining the terms of the treaty is of vital interest to our country. Besides, I doubt anyone will shed a single tear if we start bombing them."
Gamelin nodded.
"How many mages do we have?
"In total, roughly three hundred."
"And how many do the Prussians have? According to the treaty they shouldn't have one."
"Our best estimate is twenty, that includes Tanya Degurechaff herself, the Devil of the Rhine. She was easily the deadliest aerial mage of the war on either side."
"Perhaps, but we will still outnumber them fifteen to one in mages. In planes, we will outnumber them twenty-two to one, and in tanks twelve to one. With such an advantage, we can't possibly lose! I am sending the ultimatum. You start to assemble our forces. If she refuses to resign I want you to begin the police action as quickly as possible."
"Is that what you intend to call it?" Gamelin sounded amused. "A police action?"
"It sounds more acceptable than 'slaughter' which is what it will be if the Prussians fight. Get the troops ready. If we have to march I expect us in Berun within a week at most. There are no mountains in Prussia."
"All I will promise is that our troops will do their best."
XXX
November 5, Unified Year 1940
Kaiserhoff, Prussian Republic
Tanya and Viktoriya were having breakfast together when a call was routed to her suite. It was for Viktoriya in her position as Foreign Minister. Tanya watched as the color drained from Viktoriya's face and a worried expression replaced her usual smiling demeanor. By the time the girl hung up Tanya was pretty sure what was coming.
"The Republic?" Tanya asked.
Viktoriya nodded. "It was actually from the British Embassy. Ambassador Hampton is requesting an audience with you at twelve noon. The secretary was insistent it had to be at noon. The ambassador was asked to deliver a note from the Republic."
Tanya sent her a false smile. "I'm sure it's good news. They probably just want to congratulate me on suppressing the communists. I mean what else could it be?"
Viktoriya stared back in glum silence.
Tanya finished her coffee, wiped her mouth, and then got up and gave Viktoriya a quick kiss. "Come on, let's get ready to meet the ambassador and find out exactly how deep the shit is this time."
