Author's Note: Prompt suggested by CrimsonChaos
P is for Probability
Most firefighters had an innate sense of math in their surroundings. Windlifter could tell you the windspeed by observing Beaufort scale signals on the landscape. Dynamite could estimate speed that a fire would overtake her team by looking at the wind speed, the vegetation, and the slope. Cabbie…well Cabbie was the master of memorizing and referencing charts. Unfortunately, all of these skills didn't save the team from having to have access to hard numbers. This was especially true whenever the Superintendent was involved.
"But we already had our hundred-year flood." Cad Spinner rolled his eyes in exasperation.
"You really don't get it do you?" Patch could help but mutter.
"Of course, I do. We have had our hundred-year flood and by the time that we have another one it will be someone else's problem." The Superintendent looked down his hood at his employees. "That allows me to free up extra funds to work on priority projects."
"That is not how it works." The road crew engineer managed to state between gritted teeth.
"If it didn't work that way, why in the world would they call it a hundred-year flood?" Cad smirked. "It has already happened and now we don't have to worry for the next hundred years."
"We have a 1 in a 100 probability of having a flood of that magnitude every single year you dult!" The engineer practically spat. "Last year's flood levels does not reduce the risk of having a major flood this year's flood levels or next year's flood levels for that matter."
"In fact, high flood years are usually clustered, so one you have one big flood you need to be prepared to be hit by more in the near future." Patch stated using her tine for emphasis. "Which means Piston Peak National Park should be preparing for floods instead of putting that preparation on the back burner."
Cad just glared. "Why do they call them a hundred-year flood?"
"That would be due to a mixture of insurance actuaries and the media not knowing how to have a conversation about probability with the public." The engineer stated flatly and for the third time in this particular conversation."
"And why in the world would it happen at higher frequencies?" Cad practically hissed.
"That would be because of things like urbanization, changes in vegetation, cyclical weather patterns, and shifts in climate." Patch listed…Cad seemed to ignore most of the words but his eyes flashed at the mention of climate. The SUV opened his mouth as if to protest but Blade cut him off.
"We are not having that conversation right now." Blade did his best not to groan. "What matters is that we can't just cut the flood prevention budget just because we had a major flood last year. And in many ways, we probably should increase it."
The look that Cad gave the vehicles sitting in the room made it clear that the Superintendent still didn't believe them.