Chapter 6: Chance
"...Furthermore, the impact this has had on Mr. Soleil I can see being long lasting. He shan't be a problem for you or your endeavors in the coming future." Seraphina finished her brief speech. The only spectator, Sorrell Alaric, mulled on her words. Midna, as per usual, nowhere to be seen. Sera had little reason to doubt she wasn't hiding in his shadow again. Her dedication to her job as guardian was impressive.
But the psychic was not here today to be dazzled or entertained. Her role here, in the heart of the secret chambers Sorrell owned, was to entertain. And to that end, she performed her best. Her recent tale of Dusk's confession and tribulation took the spotlight as that evening's key feature. After all, she was a spy, and this was her duty. Her feelings on the matter were irrelevant.
"Explain to me how Mr. Soleil will not be..." Sorrell swirled the wine in his glass with a twist of his wrist in his pause. "Problematic, as you put it."
"You imply he would prove otherwise?"
His response was quick and forceful. "Very much so, without a doubt."
Sera gave him one of her usual mischievous smiles. "Then we have plenty of leverage. Actually... I would say we have more leverage now. Such hopeful feelings of love are among the most shackling of all emotions."
"Simultaneously the most unpredictable and erratic. His affection could mean he lies silent, out of respect for you and your decision. His affection could see him rise to arms, under the banner of freeing you from your duty."
Sera fought back a laugh, feeling it would show her true feelings of being insulted. "I made it very clear I do this job purely out of pleasure."
"And does that remain true?" He asked with a pointed expression. Sorrell's gaze burned with a certain anger, mixed with doubt and disgust. Seraphina met his eyes and tried scratching at his mentality again, once more to no avail. The aristocrat remains the greatest vault she has encountered. Such treasures reside, awaiting for her to toy with.
Her grin grew. "You know it is." This right here is nothing but a monster hunting another monster. Only-
"There's no need to be coy about this, Seraphina. I know your true aim is nothing less than my neck."
"Then what is there to doubt?" She replied. The two stared each other down for several minutes. It was a test of endurance and spite. Neither side had any intention of backing down. Sorrell wished to prove dominant through hierarchy, while she knew that rank did not separate corpse from cadaver. And he knew this. Sorrell is a tricky man; accomplished, cunning, and patient. All of which he was aware. Invulnerable. Her Semblance proved that time and again.
"Your emotions, Seraphina. Are they fun?" He asked at last.
"Quite."
"Are they painful?"
She hesitated. Sera fancied herself a wonderful liar. Especially considering her skill with words allowed her to twist things any which way. Her smile faded, shifting from a forlorn expression, before settling on a scowl. "Yes..."
"You were better off without them. You were honed, like a fine dagger."
"You yourself said love is unpredictable. If many emotions are like so, then my acquisition could mean more potential for-" Oh. Oh dear. The psychic almost cupped her hands over her mouth, having realized far too late. Sorrell's eyes narrowed into a glare. He wishes me to be simple and predictable. And now he knows that I'm aware of that. Well, this only spells trouble for me.
"You do know what you are, do you not?" He asked, in the softest of voices.
She lowered her head and answered quickly. "Of course, sir. I am an investment."
"So long as you do not forget that, and who you serve. As for this Dusk fellow..." He groans for a moment. "Ugh... A blight yet to come." Then laughter. Seraphina knew even before the aristocrat continued. "Well, it's as you said. We have ample leverage over him. I won't even give him the chance. Thank you for your report, Seraphina. You are excused."
"I shall take my leave, then." She said without an ounce of joy. Oh, Sorrell. Fantastic Mr. Sorrell. You are a wicked monster, indeed.
(-)
Dusk groaned, a low and melancholy whine that lasted too long to be ignored. Instead, the closest he got to sympathy from the others was two cards jabbed against his overturned head. A faint whimper escaped him as cards continued to shuffle around. He wanted to see Sera again. Even one more time this evening would have sated his desire and steadied his broken heart. But as usual, she was absent from game night. At least now it made sense why she never was allowed to play.
"C'mon, man." Coal said, trying to talk over Dusk's wallowing. "This'll be the fourth time you've folded. Either play or leave."
"But you guys forced me to play this time around..." The soldier mumbled.
"Exactly. Now play. Azure just raised by a chocolate bar and chips. You gonna take that lying down?"
"Check." Viridian stated, tossing an equivalent of junk food into the pot. Monica folded, as did Sylvia, but not after a yawn and a bored glance at Dusk. Without raising his head off the table, Dusk flicked the cards forward, causing Coal to sigh.
"Four of spades, King of hearts... Aaaand six of clubs. Look, you need somethin to take your mind off of her. Like food, or a nap. I dunno, I'm not a love guru."
"But I need a love guru. Or a psychiatrist. Or a mortician." Dusk whimpered as Ash folded, surrendering his cards. Only Azure and Viridian remaining. Viridan raised again, with Azure matching his gamble. Coal cleared his throat.
"Cheer up, Dusk!" Monica said cheerily. "I'll teach ya how to make chlorine bombs with plastic bottles!"
"Godammit." Viridian grumbled, having lost. The cards were shuffled together once more.
"Plastic bottles..." Dusk raised his head to give Monica a confused look. "You think vandalism helps?" The Faunus nods in approval. He blinks, not sure what answer he was expecting. "How have you not been convicted of a felony yet?"
"What's a felony?" Sylvia asked.
But before Dusk could go on about the intricacies of the judicial law system upheld in all four lands, Coal butt in. "It means being too darn happy all the time."
"Oh, yeah, lots and LOTS of fella niece!" Monica squeaked in delight, before looking at her hand. "Ooo, these cards are making me think of committing one of those fellow knees."
"Great, now she's impossible to read." Viridian grumbled. Even so, he raised the bet nonetheless, causing Ash to fold early.
"Look, just distract yourself with something that you know makes you happy." Coal offered. He drew a four, an eight, and a ten, face up. Viridian whipped his cards against the far wall in a huff. Sylvia laughed, and did the same with a loud whooping sound. "It's what everyone else does to cope with unfair circumstances and reality in general."
"Reality in general?" The soldier mimicked, perplexed.
"Don't focus on that. Azure wins with two pairs. Killin' it."
Dusk mulled on the idea. But it didn't help that all he knew could fill that crevice in him was Seraphina by his side. He knew she would be able to draw out that joy in him, both naturally and by force. The complexity of her background also tugged at his curiosity. He looked at the King in his hand. Maybe it is time to look up. The different suit six he was handed changed that thought.
"What do you guys do for fun?"
"Conquest." Viridian barked. Everyone stared at him as he tossed in another chocolate bar, glaring at his cards again. There was bloody murder in his eyes, alongside a faint smile of glee. But no, Dusk rubbed his eyes, and the smile was gone. He began to doubt whether it was there to begin with. The gladiator looked around him, before adding "And sleep."
Monica tossed her cards aside, grinning and recalling her past. "Fell undies, running around, sparring with people and Grimm, ice cream! Ice cream is fun!"
"I've never had ice cream." Ash admits.
"I've stolen some ice cream from a stall somewhere in Atlas. It was great." Sylvia added.
Dusk tosses his cards in. "I shouldn't have asked..."
"To be fair," Coal suggests. "Those are very Viridian and Monica things. You need a Dusk thing. Queen of diamonds, three of spades, two of diamonds. Fold now or forever hold your peace. And your candy." At that, everyone but Viridian folds.
"I'm a little lost. What exactly do you think are 'Dusk' things?"
"Dude, I dunno! Writing a book report, organizing files with an absurd system that's somehow comprehensible-"
"Giving a lecture about improper mannerisms!" Monica chimed in.
Dusk scoffed. "Do you all see me as some secretary babysitter more than as a friend?"
Monica and Sylvia both turned to him at once and answered in turn. ""No, no! No."" But even they looked unconvinced by their answer.
Finally, Monica answered "Yes."
"Yes." Sylvia nodded in agreement. "Yes. Y-a bit. Just a bit."
"Doesn't change the fact that you love all of that junk." Coal continued, dishing out the next hands. "Like, look at this card game. It's all based around luck and deceit. Even so, you'll probably find a way to make it boring."
Dusk rolled his eyes. "All right, you don't need to be mean. And poker is more than luck. In fact, there's more math to it than luck, if you study probability. Four suits with thirteen cards in each, take into account the number of players, and it becomes a process of evaluating obstacles versus chances of success. A five and a ten of spades, and another ten of clubs. Assuming all the participants are professional, and considering the frequency of our sessions, we all have quite a bit of experience with this at this point.
"Since no one has backed out, everyone must be quite confident with their hands. Viridian raised just now, which indicates either a risky lie or confidence in his hand. Which means my chances are in a critical state unless I can determine what his hand might hold. Still no one backing out, everyone has at least a Jack or higher, myself included. I'll raise, as my own chances are quite high with the circumstances shown to me.
"A two of diamonds, throwing everything into discord. All lies in whether people fold or persevere and see their defeat thr-"
"SHUT UP!" Viridian shouted, throwing his cards down. And one by one, everyone surrendered. Despite flinching from the alarming scream, Dusk saw the gladiators hand. A Jack and a nine of spades. That was an incredibly lucky hand, especially considering one more spade would have ensured his victory, poker face or not. The cluster of candy now shoved towards him made him sheepishly hand in his cards to Coal, who only mumbled with a disinterested tone.
"Called it. You have a tendency to overthink everything and anything. Though if you annoy everyone into submission again, I'm gonna have to kick you out." With the next hands being dealt, Dusk had some time to think. Magnifying problems was definitely a trait of his. Did things need to be so complicated?
Dusk glanced at Monica teetering back and forth while humming to herself. What was it that allows her to charge ahead, unstoppable and stubborn? Surely it can't be that brushing over problems without taking things into equation can work. Even so, the Faunus looked as though all that dictated her actions was as simple as preference and nothing more.
"Hey, team leader Coal, gimme some better cards next time." Viridian barked, tossing his cards into his leader's face. Another example to look at. The gladiator weighs his options, and stops caring and thinking once he overcomes it or submits to it. How can one live in such a state? Dusk hadn't considered anything but complete evaluation. Perhaps hesitation was his nature.
"Ace and King of clubs," Coal announced. "And a nine of hearts." This entire time, Dusk had glanced at everything but his own cards. A five of diamonds, but the queen of clubs caught his attention. His eyes shifted to everyone else in a nervous manner, worried he might give away his great fortune. As Azure raised the stakes and everyone else complied, the soldier did the same. His mind raced with calculation and estimates.
Once Coal drew a ten of clubs, the estimations narrowed. Viridian glared at the cards and growled. "What the hell is this?! I woulda won! Why didn't you-"
"Grouch, those that quit," The dealer replied, pushing the gladiator's cards away. "Can't say jack." A Jack. A jack was all he needed. Any suit would have been fine. If none of the others had a Jack of any suit, his chances soared. How? How was such a thing possible? With all of probability at play, how in Remnant- Ash raised, and everyone met the gamble. Every single one of them.
Not probable. It wasn't entirely impossible. Dusk leaned in to watch the last card flip. He felt his heart might leap out, no matter what card was flipped. A jack of any suit. A club of any value. And victory could be his. The chances skyrocketed, as well as the tension in the air. Not probable. Yet completely possible. Coal's hand flipped over the final card, revealing the Jack of clubs.
Sylvia screeched with delight, at exactly the same time as Monica. Both threw down their cards face up, and Coal read off the results. "Monica with two pairs, Sylvia with two even higher pairs. Azure... Woah. That's a flush. Ash with... Also a flush! But, seven is higher than four, which beats out everyone else. And Dusk-"
"Royal flush!" He exclaims, throwing down his hand.
(-)
Coal studied Dusk's expression. Sweat beaded on the soldier's forehead, his mouth agape and breathing at a rapid rate. His chest rose and fell with heavy breaths. He raised both arms into the air, locking his gaze onto Coal. Coal himself felt his mouth twitch. "What?"
"WHAT!?" Viridian shouted next. "You expect me to believe-" Then stopped. The gladiator's face shifted from one of anger to amusement. Sure, with his nine of clubs, he would have won with a higher flush than Azure and Ash. But because he bailed early, his loss was microscopic in comparison to the others. If not for the others being present, Coal could see the gladiator smirking about dodging a bullet like that.
"What just happened?" Monica asked, eyes darting everywhere.
"Dusk cheated." Sylvia spat, reaching for her share of the candy from the pile. "That's what-"
"You can't declare that so easily, Sylvia." Ash interrupted, grabbing her hand. "Don't be a sore loser."
"You lost too, ya clod! You're a loser too!"
"Hey, HEY!" Coal tried to stop an all out brawl from taking place. Viridian stepped up, and grabbed both Ash and Sylvia's hands. Sylvia struggled, but in time, she pouted and turned away in denial.
The gladiator looked up at Coal with a suspicious look in his eyes. "You. Dealer. What the hell are the odds of-"
"33.3%" Dusk muttered with a gasp. Everyone shifted their attention to the soldier, who had calmed down at this point. Not just because of the lucky victory he had achieved, but Dusk had just done something he rarely does. He interrupted. Viridian, of all people. Whatever high this win brought him is gonna have some insane consequences, Coal thought to himself.
The soldier rambled on, as no one saw fit to refute him. "Three other clubs among everyone's hands, with no one holding a Jack. Six players, four cards drawn by Coal. 16 cards in play. 36 cards yet to be played. Because I had a Queen, either a Jack or a club would save me. Six clubs left, three unaffiliated Jacks. 27 to 9." He glanced up at everyone unable to peel their eyes away, sighing in relief. "A 33.3% chance to come out on top."
Those are some incredibly favorable numbers. Coal was amazed at Dusk's accurate and swift mathematics. He could admit to swindling everyone and intentionally placing forth the Jack of clubs. In fact, he did so. But even Coal lost track of the cards he dealt to the others. To think Dusk had the Queen of clubs. Even a Queen at all, a card no one else had.
"What the hell did you do to get on Lady Luck's side like that?" Viridian mumbled in a hushed voice. Coal whipped out his Scroll and did some quick equations. He struggled a little at first but remembered the formula. Within a minute, he had the final odds of the card being the Jack of clubs. Less than 3%. Even without his hampering, Dusk had an unimaginable scenario with one in three chances of winning.
Monica burst into fits of laughter, breaking the tension of this entire debacle. "Jeez, man, that's a lot of candy. Way to go!" Dusk shifted his gaze to Monica, as did Coal. Even in defeat, Monica was unique in her support of her friends. Such a rare trait in the face of a humiliating defeat. Sylvia, giving a reluctant sigh, couldn't help but smile. She shoved all the candy into Dusk's arms.
"Yeah, way to go, dude. Math still sucks, though. Now, get outta here. This is where your lucky streak ends."
"Th-thanks." Dusk struggled with all the junk food overflowing from his arms. He waddled away to his desk, all eyes still on him. "Y-yeah, I'll... Unwind for a bit."
"Uhh-" Coal started, trying to get his attention. "You sure you'll be ok?" But it was as though his question went unheard. Dusk had already opened up a box of his sugary spoils. His hand reached into his breast pocket and he pulled out a small book. The aspiring hunter was perplexed with what activity Dusk might be doing. But then a pen appeared in the soldiers hand, and he opened the blank pages of the book.
"Oh, God, he's brought out the journal." Sylvia muttered in dread. Seeing her lock up in a frozen state made Coal realize how much he pities team Mustard. With a nosy guy like Dusk intent on finding everything, no wonder the berserker has shell shock. Ink shock? Whatever trauma inspired by writing was called.
Coal let out a laugh, returning to shuffling the cards. "Yeah, he'll be fine. Let's play a little more then call it a night." As the game went on, his mind wandered to the topic of probability. Each one gathered here, in this room, and even Seraphina. Everyone had gone through things, learned from them, and grew. All to be who they are now.
And now, they're all together like this. Studying, learning, growing some more. Influencing each other. For such a scenario like that, for the tiles to have fallen where they have... If even one thing had been different years back, maybe none of this would have been. For everything to be like this, what were the odds? Coal gave up the thought, realizing there wouldn't be a machine anywhere that could calculate the chances of that.
