Kagome destroys the world part 2
Hmmm. Some reviewers of part 1, brought up some points, that I felt that needed to be addressed.
First, Kagome destroys the World is a worst case scenario.
In it, I assumed that anything that could go wrong did go wrong.
Below is a somewhat more realistic scenario. Please note, I don't expect everyone to agree with this scenario, because, no doubt, I will be getting some things wrong.
The bio-war scenario in Kagome destroys the world is pretty simple.
Within the time frame of a week smallpox appears all over the globe. (this is from Kagome visiting the Museum and spreading the disease as she wandered about the exhibits AND from her going back and forth to school.)
Japan is heavily effected. Over a dozen outbreaks, mainly centered around the museum (the people that work at the museum and the food vendors, etc) and around Kagome's school.
South Korea and China have outbreaks.
The USA has a couple of outbreaks. (old female tourist from Florida and business man out of NYC)
Europe has cases in the UK, France and Russia
Australia has a case.
A case in Singapore.
A case in India and a case in Chile. (Japanese archeology professors that visited japan and then returned to where they were working.)
A case in Israel
(A dozen to fifteen cases outside of japan, total)
During the first week, and into the second, the news organizations are going to headline the story of smallpox. AND since predictions of an epidemic are more likely to generate high rating, that will be the included in the stories. (some channels might also have more level-headed people on them to counter the gloom and doom people, but, the predictions for an epidemic will be what people on the street will talk about.)
There will be disruptions, demonstrations, maybe worse. Exactly how bad depends on the individual government.
After the disruptions/demonstrations, hopefully, the news channels will remember that they affect public opinion and they'll tone down their stories. (given the huge number of modern mass media outlets, shrug, who knows, there could be people that, it's in their best interest to encourage the demonstrations?)
Since the disease is popping up all over the world, at basically the same time, there will be concerns that it is terrorist related. Since Japan is the focal point, North Korea or perhaps China will be blamed for the disease, at least by some people. (the case in India would start similar thoughts about Pakistan. The case in Israel would start similar thoughts about say, Syria? Iran? Someone, else? giving it to the Palestinians?)
Tensions between North Korea and the rest of the world will increase. There are people that will want to blame them. And, while medical/police detective work will sooner or later show that it's Kagome to blame, that will not occur overnight and people want to blame someone NOW.
In a best case scenario, though, everyone keeps talking and nobody starts to warm up the military.
Combating the disease... this gets a little tricky, here.
The death rate with smallpox is 25-35%. BUT that figure is based on 1940-60 data. Given modern medicine that death rate should drop. (how far, shrug. Down to 5-10%, basically making it the equivalent of SARS, is perhaps a reasonable assumption.)
The first couple of weeks will be the tricky ones. To stop an epidemic you have to quarante a lot of people and you don't have time to be polite about it. there will be problems as there will be people that will say, "I'm not sick. I'm not going to be quarante and I'll calling my lawyer and my congressman, because you don't have the authority to do it." As they shove a gun out the door.
There are stockpiles of smallpox vaccine and there are plans to distribute it, in case of something like this. Those plans will be activated. Will they work as planned? Probably not. "I've got 10 truckloads of vaccine, but only 2 trucks! What do I do!?" problems like that will occur. Will it be a critical mistake? In a best case scenario, probably not, but problems will develop.
As long as the cases stay close to up-to-date medical and transportation areas (so, even if there isn't any vaccine you can fly it in and distribute it)... things shouldn't be too bad. When it's all done, the outcome of this scenario should look a lot like what happened with SARS. Perhaps with a similar body count, perhaps a lot less, perhaps some more.
The primary differences between the SARS and this scenario is the increase in tension with North Korea and the disturbances during the first days after the news breaks.
Now... if the disease spreads away from up-to-date medical and transportation areas... things get worse. Without up-to-date medicine and without the ability to get it there and distribute it quickly the number of deaths will increase.
(an example of what I'm talking about. Say, it spreads into the back areas of Indonesia. Where are the doctors at? Fly them in? sure. but will they speak the language? Interpreters? Ok? Where will they come from and who's paying for all this? What about food for the doctors? Will that be flown in? How about cars, trucks to transport the doctors, drugs, and food? Gas for the trucks? And since that is a pretty lawless area of the world... what about guards? What are the rules of engagement? Etc?)
All of those problems will have to be solved and solving them will take time. And during that time the disease will spread. How bad would be get? Shrug. On the worst case scenario you'd be looking at the AIDS epidemic in Africa, but instead of taking decades, it only takes a couple of months. (and the number of deaths from non-disease related reasons increase as the logistical infrastructure of the continent collapses even more) On a more positive scenario the deaths would probably be measured in the thousands, not the millions.
Oh, yes, there will probably be readers that disagree with the my opinion of the new organizations. Shrug. That happens. Unfortunately, I feel that they are far more concerned about ratings, selling air time and TV sound bites, instead of calm factual in depth reporting. They want controversy. They want headlines! "smallpox epidemic will kill millions!" not "Smallpox, is dangerous, but if you listen to some basic common sense advise, you'll do fine."
And they'll be probably be readers that think I'm going overboard with the disturbances and people not wanting to be quarantined. Shrug. Perhaps, but if you tried to quarantine a couple of blocks in NYC, I don't think it'll go over all that well. (whither people pull guns or not, I don't know. Lawsuits... oh, yes, they'll be lawsuits.)
A website similar to this...
Delete the spaces for the link.
mercola .com/ 2002/ jul/10/ smallpoxoutbreak .htm
Thank you for reading Jeff shelton
...
.
Hmmm. Some reviewers of part 1, brought up some points, that I felt that needed to be addressed.
First, Kagome destroys the World is a worst case scenario.
In it, I assumed that anything that could go wrong did go wrong.
Below is a somewhat more realistic scenario. Please note, I don't expect everyone to agree with this scenario, because, no doubt, I will be getting some things wrong.
The bio-war scenario in Kagome destroys the world is pretty simple.
Within the time frame of a week smallpox appears all over the globe. (this is from Kagome visiting the Museum and spreading the disease as she wandered about the exhibits AND from her going back and forth to school.)
Japan is heavily effected. Over a dozen outbreaks, mainly centered around the museum (the people that work at the museum and the food vendors, etc) and around Kagome's school.
South Korea and China have outbreaks.
The USA has a couple of outbreaks. (old female tourist from Florida and business man out of NYC)
Europe has cases in the UK, France and Russia
Australia has a case.
A case in Singapore.
A case in India and a case in Chile. (Japanese archeology professors that visited japan and then returned to where they were working.)
A case in Israel
(A dozen to fifteen cases outside of japan, total)
During the first week, and into the second, the news organizations are going to headline the story of smallpox. AND since predictions of an epidemic are more likely to generate high rating, that will be the included in the stories. (some channels might also have more level-headed people on them to counter the gloom and doom people, but, the predictions for an epidemic will be what people on the street will talk about.)
There will be disruptions, demonstrations, maybe worse. Exactly how bad depends on the individual government.
After the disruptions/demonstrations, hopefully, the news channels will remember that they affect public opinion and they'll tone down their stories. (given the huge number of modern mass media outlets, shrug, who knows, there could be people that, it's in their best interest to encourage the demonstrations?)
Since the disease is popping up all over the world, at basically the same time, there will be concerns that it is terrorist related. Since Japan is the focal point, North Korea or perhaps China will be blamed for the disease, at least by some people. (the case in India would start similar thoughts about Pakistan. The case in Israel would start similar thoughts about say, Syria? Iran? Someone, else? giving it to the Palestinians?)
Tensions between North Korea and the rest of the world will increase. There are people that will want to blame them. And, while medical/police detective work will sooner or later show that it's Kagome to blame, that will not occur overnight and people want to blame someone NOW.
In a best case scenario, though, everyone keeps talking and nobody starts to warm up the military.
Combating the disease... this gets a little tricky, here.
The death rate with smallpox is 25-35%. BUT that figure is based on 1940-60 data. Given modern medicine that death rate should drop. (how far, shrug. Down to 5-10%, basically making it the equivalent of SARS, is perhaps a reasonable assumption.)
The first couple of weeks will be the tricky ones. To stop an epidemic you have to quarante a lot of people and you don't have time to be polite about it. there will be problems as there will be people that will say, "I'm not sick. I'm not going to be quarante and I'll calling my lawyer and my congressman, because you don't have the authority to do it." As they shove a gun out the door.
There are stockpiles of smallpox vaccine and there are plans to distribute it, in case of something like this. Those plans will be activated. Will they work as planned? Probably not. "I've got 10 truckloads of vaccine, but only 2 trucks! What do I do!?" problems like that will occur. Will it be a critical mistake? In a best case scenario, probably not, but problems will develop.
As long as the cases stay close to up-to-date medical and transportation areas (so, even if there isn't any vaccine you can fly it in and distribute it)... things shouldn't be too bad. When it's all done, the outcome of this scenario should look a lot like what happened with SARS. Perhaps with a similar body count, perhaps a lot less, perhaps some more.
The primary differences between the SARS and this scenario is the increase in tension with North Korea and the disturbances during the first days after the news breaks.
Now... if the disease spreads away from up-to-date medical and transportation areas... things get worse. Without up-to-date medicine and without the ability to get it there and distribute it quickly the number of deaths will increase.
(an example of what I'm talking about. Say, it spreads into the back areas of Indonesia. Where are the doctors at? Fly them in? sure. but will they speak the language? Interpreters? Ok? Where will they come from and who's paying for all this? What about food for the doctors? Will that be flown in? How about cars, trucks to transport the doctors, drugs, and food? Gas for the trucks? And since that is a pretty lawless area of the world... what about guards? What are the rules of engagement? Etc?)
All of those problems will have to be solved and solving them will take time. And during that time the disease will spread. How bad would be get? Shrug. On the worst case scenario you'd be looking at the AIDS epidemic in Africa, but instead of taking decades, it only takes a couple of months. (and the number of deaths from non-disease related reasons increase as the logistical infrastructure of the continent collapses even more) On a more positive scenario the deaths would probably be measured in the thousands, not the millions.
Oh, yes, there will probably be readers that disagree with the my opinion of the new organizations. Shrug. That happens. Unfortunately, I feel that they are far more concerned about ratings, selling air time and TV sound bites, instead of calm factual in depth reporting. They want controversy. They want headlines! "smallpox epidemic will kill millions!" not "Smallpox, is dangerous, but if you listen to some basic common sense advise, you'll do fine."
And they'll be probably be readers that think I'm going overboard with the disturbances and people not wanting to be quarantined. Shrug. Perhaps, but if you tried to quarantine a couple of blocks in NYC, I don't think it'll go over all that well. (whither people pull guns or not, I don't know. Lawsuits... oh, yes, they'll be lawsuits.)
A website similar to this...
Delete the spaces for the link.
mercola .com/ 2002/ jul/10/ smallpoxoutbreak .htm
Thank you for reading Jeff shelton
...
.