ADVENT | History
The Reconstruction of the Middle East
"Home to the greatest disaster that never happened, and that the world never learned about."
- Commander Laura Christiaens
ADVENT Operational Autopsy 031
Author: Hank Avel
Operation: Deus Vult
OVERVIEW: Operation Deus Vult was one of the most influential military operations in Human history, and will define the future of an entire region, and was arguably the culmination of the consequences of the fall of the Caliphate in the previous decade. It was a multi-national, multi-factional operation (primarily with XCOM) that resulted in its success, and it remains the most effective and efficient decapitation operation against multiple nations, including a nuclear power, in human history.
The sheer scale of what was achieved cannot be understated, but it is a mistake to believe that each part was executed perfectly. ADVENT quickly identified the most efficient solution, but, as a consequence, overlooked or ignored critical aspects of the region, which laid the groundwork for unrest in the future – unrest which was nearly exploited by hostile actors.
PRE-OPERATIONAL SITUATION: The Middle East has never recovered from the fall of the Caliphate. The Damascus Accords effectively stripped the region of all autonomy and foreign investment, all in an effort to ensure that they would never rise as a united power and threaten the east and west again.
This, of course, did not work as intended. The nations endured, but they were poor, their economies were in shambles, and state power fell to corruption and despots as the central power of the state was eroded, and citizens turned to other means of sustaining themselves. Smuggling of all kinds thrived, and black markets were region-wide.
Conflict did not stop with the end of the War on Terror; instead, it evolved, and was confined to the region, as ethnic and religious conflicts simmered and finally boiled over into small-scale conflicts. Governments struggled to provide basic needs for citizens, and alternative groups sprung up, providing protection, food, and materials. These groups function similarly to pre-Caliphate Iraq Popular Mobilization Forces, militias that often supplemented official state actions, though in this case not answering to, or falling under the direction of the state.
While most of these major groups were not terrorist organizations, many of their leaders had origins in the Caliphate - and they were most certainly not united, typically breaking along regional, ethnic, and religious lines. This is not to say that terrorist groups didn't exist, but they were the minority, and often clashed with the newly empowered PMFs and state governments. Terrorism saw a resurgence when Turkey began meddling near its borders, particularly fueling unrest in Syria.
Around ten major PMFs, two dozen smaller PMFs, and a handful of terrorist cells (most of them funded by Turkey) were estimated to be in operation, most of the major ones keeping a hands-off approach, while any rivalry and conflict was fought through or among the smaller PMFs. This resulted in much of the violence being confined to the region.
This is not counting the dozen major smuggling cartels that cropped up, which were aligned against one another as well - at least in a business sense. They primarily aligned themselves with the major PMFs, and were usually their sole suppliers. The only time unity existed was when foreign groups attempted to interfere, such as the Mexican Cartels or the Chinese Triads – both of which were promptly run out of the region.
There were some indications that the region was at least marginally stabilizing, especially Saudi Arabia, which had recently had several sanctions lifted, allowing them to sell their vast reserves of oil. While foreign investment was minimal, it was seen as a potential start for the nations' economic recovery.
This, however, did not manifest. As the alien invasion began escalating, several of the nations organized an attack on their long-standing regional enemy, Israel, which responded with equal force, and, backed by allies, laid the stage for Deus Vult, with every Middle Eastern nation involved to some degree.
OPERATIONAL EXECUTION: The goals of Operation Deus Vult were simple and straightforward – the neutralization of the target nations' command structure and leadership, and decimation of their military defenses. In this respect, Operation Deus Vult was an unprecedented success, in no small part to the deployment of the MDU units, as well as XCOM psion Patricia Trask neutralizing Pakistan's nuclear response.
The Middle Eastern nations were unprepared and outmatched on all technological and logistical fronts. Their sole advantage was in terrain; advantages that were mitigated by numbers, logistics, and technology. ADVENT's rules of engagement were significantly more lenient, allowing an exceptionally wide justification for acceptable use of force, which allowed ADVENT operational freedom to move and capture without concern for collateral damage.
Operationally, Deus Vult was a success. That is not in dispute. What can and should be reviewed is if it was the best approach ADVENT could have taken to achieve the same goals.
OPERATIONAL REVIEW: If one is closely paying attention, they will notice that Deus Vult focused solely on the state actors of these nations. The PMFs and smuggling groups were not mentioned at all. The reason is that they did not factor into Deus Vult whatsoever. As one would expect, these groups were lying low once ADVENT became involved, and did not ever truly engage with ADVENT on any meaningful scale.
ADVENT was aware of their presence, but they did not consider them a large enough issue to directly involve in Deus Vult, and believed it to be a problem which could be more easily solved once the Middle East was under ADVENT control. This resulted in thousands of men and dozens of these militias and similar organizations which were still intact and ready to declare jihad against ADVENT for their invasion.
Much of the infrastructure and command of these groups had not been touched, and, with the state powers they had cordial relationships with gone, replaced by ADVENT as a far larger, more obvious, and, notably, foreign, threat it was inevitable that these groups would cause problems down the line, and it is questionable that ADVENT did not take this reality into account.
While this was the largest planning flaw of Deus Vult, it should be acknowledged that the aggressive and far-reaching use of force by ADVENT did not lay the appropriate groundwork for a smooth transition of ADVENT from occupier to peacekeeper. While justified on paper, this is a tactic that works best against an enemy that is not intended to be permanently occupied.
However, this is less of a concern, though it should be acknowledged, as the consequences played directly into what followed next.
IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH: Many of the cities that were targeted in the operation had been heavily damaged by shelling and gunfire, and contributed to an already-difficult living situation for many civilians. There were significant military casualties from the nations, as well as a notable number of civilian casualties. ADVENT was immediately faced with handling the returning of bodies and managing funerals.
More importantly, they were inheriting a population which was hostile to ADVENT, and challenged both to accept them as citizens, and to build the Middle East into a thriving nation, while facing opposition early on. Curfews were instituted, military patrols were made standard, and ADVENT began the process of suspending the national currencies and replacing them with the Alloy, setting up currency exchange stations.
There were numerous incidents that contributed to a situation that threatened to get much worse before it got better. Lone vigilante attacks against ADVENT soldiers, bombs discovered in houses, ADVENT soldiers pulling down Caliphate-era statues, and establishing surveillance equipment in mosques and on persons of note.
Without question, ADVENT could have managed the initial occupation more smoothly and avoided a lot of eventual hardship. Though, considering the circumstances, and the failure to adequately neutralize the non-state actors, it is understandable that ADVENT High Command did not believe a more lenient approach was safer or feasible.
PEACEKEEPER CRACKDOWNS: The following was inevitable, as ADVENT Intelligence became involved, and uncovered the networks of PMFs and smugglers which had not been impacted by the military actions against the state. Worse was that the civilian population was not subtle about turning a blind eye to their work, or even providing help if they needed it.
Naturally, ADVENT did not approve, and escalated by performing massive crackdowns region-wide, arresting dozens of people in stings for supporting illegal or terrorist activity. This gave the impression that purges were being conducted, since these stings took place in public buildings, homes, and mosques, and ADVENT usually did not give an explanation to onlookers.
Nonetheless, these actions, though justified at the time, fed into a militant mentality which was growing between Peacekeepers and the civilians in these regions. There were no signs that the situation was going to ease, and, with the later emergence of the Lion, it threatened to escalate further.
THE LION'S OPERATION: The man known as the Lion seemed to have come out of nowhere. What initially tipped ADVENT off to the fact that something was very wrong was that the terror cells they were monitoring were now working together. Interrogation of several captured soldiers revealed that there was a new ringleader.
A leader had emerged, who was bringing together every single smuggling ring, PMF, terror cell, and former disgruntled soldier and civilian to use against ADVENT. It stunned ADVENT analysts with how well-run and organized the group was - which was assisted with the in-built organization of the larger PMFs, and they soon realized they had a major problem on their hands.
Direct evidence revealed that he was planning to unleash a major offensive, and was in contact with alien operatives who were rumored to have been supplying him with alien tech. Several Lancer squads in the region had gone missing, and their equipment was said to have been jury-rigged and used by the Lion's elite forces.
The collection of this intelligence was enough justification for ADVENT to hastily form a response before the Lion could turn the region into a bloodbath. He was tapping into a well of resentment and anger – and was ready to use it.
ADVENT RESPONSE: It should be noted that ADVENT's worst-case scenario estimations of what could happen if the Lion's attempt were to succeed were wildly off – it would have been much worse. After the incident, a review of his actual plans showed that they were meticulously detailed, and he had the infrastructure and manpower to cause serious damage to existing ADVENT forces and installations – enough to kill thousands of ADVENT personnel.
The outcome would not have changed – the ADVENT Army would have descended upon the Middle East again, and ADVENT would have performed a systematic investigation of the region, and a purge of terrorist elements. ADVENT Intelligence would have rooted out every single hideout and person of interest, and – worst-case scenario – XCOM would have brought in psions to extract all the information they needed.
In even the bleakest of scenarios, the Lion was doomed from the start. It was only a matter of how many ADVENT soldiers he could take with him. At minimum, a successful operation would have tied up a significant amount of ADVENT resources, and likely ensured that the region was unusable and a drain on ADVENT for the duration of the war – which he might have accepted as an acceptable outcome.
Instead, ADVENT was able to locate him and deployed an ADVENT Intelligence assassin to remove him. However, something went wrong in the operation, and the operative was forced to retreat, though reported several odd things, including spotting the Lion speaking with an unknown Imam, and who was also closely tied with him for the course of a week. This will be important later. Another operation was planned, but it was called off when the Lion himself personally surrendered to ADVENT, unprompted.
The Lion not only surrendered, but actively turned in the leaders of every terrorist and smuggling cell into ADVENT, as well as provided all information and technology given to him by the Zararch. He also said he could bring the region into ADVENT – but that they would have to listen to him, or he promised that ADVENT would be dealing with a low-scale insurgency for the next decade. It was phrased, according to witnesses, as less of a threat, and more of a statement of fact. Considering the situation which has been described, as non-ideal as it is, this was an improvement, and it was considered.
After some deliberation, ADVENT agreed to work with him, provided he underwent the required tests and interviews to ensure he was reliable. While the results of those are beyond the scope of this report, it was determined that he was reliable enough, and he has since been a direct advisor with Karen Marshall on policy, as well as working with myself on the Middle Eastern Legion.
Exactly what prompted him to surrender is a puzzle that was never truly solved. We believe that there was an underground group of Imams (who are now all tied to the newly launched House of Wisdom) who were extremely influential in the religious matters of the region, who were previously tied to the Caliphate.
ADVENT believes that they had one of their own talk down the Lion, and potentially suggest actions he could take that ADVENT would be agreeable to. At some point, I suspect ADVENT Intelligence or the Oversight Division will launch an investigation to figure out exactly what happened here - but, right now, there are more important matters, and the region is far more stable than it has been in the past three decades.
SUGGESTED ACTIONS: It is safe to say that we dodged a very bloody bullet, all of which stemmed from Deus Vult.
Deus Vult was successful. It was, however, flawed in its origin, and we should ensure that a similar operation does not take place again. In this instance, there should be an understanding that historically, meddling of this nature has often destabilized the region, due to an implicit lack of understanding. It happened after World War I with the Sykes-Picot agreement, and, even though there was relative stability under the Inheritor King, that, inevitably, collapsed, and the Damascus Accords, following the War on Terror accomplished absolutely nothing beyond stripping the states of the tools they could have used to rebuild.
We need to develop any future policy with this historic context in mind to make sure we do not repeat it.
I am not speaking of the intrinsic goal – the Middle East needed to be dealt with eventually, but the fact remains that Deus Vult omitted key aspects in its operational goals, which directly contributed to the scenario where someone like the Lion could come out of nowhere and almost succeed in causing mass chaos and death.
When planning future operations, we should strive to take into account the whole picture, not just focusing on state actors (or the inverse). The diplomatic aspect is one which should also be leveraged more fully. While surrender was refused in some instances, ADVENT designed Deus Vult with the assumption that surrender was not an option on the table. Measures such as sanctions have proven to be successful, and it is likely that it would have broken the nations enough to surrender without a fight. Deus Vult did not necessarily need to be a military operation, and could have instead been a two-pronged approach, with the military aspect focusing on smuggling and terrorism, with the economic aspect focused on the sanctions to break the economies and government of the state actors.
There are other lessons that can be taken from Deus Vult, but these are the largest ones. We should endeavor to learn from this, because next time, we might not be so lucky.
DAMASCUS – In the wake of one of the largest military operations in Human history, ADVENT has taken control of one of the most troubled regions on Earth, and has inherited all of the issues and hardships that have come with it – in addition to new ones that have sprung as the result of their invasion.
Despite the vast distance covered, there is a familiar sight that has followed the attacks. Streets are filled with ADVENT soldiers, who are only now being replaced with Peacekeepers, as ADVENT transitions from a purely military occupation to a governing body. Karen Marshall, the ADVENT official in charge of the Reconstruction stated the following:
"We are working tirelessly to bring the region into a new normal, and downsizing the visible military presence in the cities, even though we will need to maintain garrisons in the event of alien intervention. We are looking to transition to a standing Peacekeeper presence, and institute new elections in the coming months."
ADVENT has been lifting curfews in the weeks that have followed Deus Vult, after strictly enforcing them to prevent violence. "It's a major effort," Amalda Stein, Chief of Peacekeeper Operations said. "It will take some time for the new reality to sink in for some of these people, and until that point, they may be tempted to take matters into their own hands when they shouldn't."
When asked about what kind of measures ADVENT is taking, Stein added: "We have established curfews, which have already helped stop some of the violence happening and pinpointed the worst troublemakers. ADVENT Intelligence is working with us to monitor any potential terrorist cells that have cropped up in the aftermath."
When asked to elaborate on terrorist cells, Stein declined to be specific, citing classification concerns, only noting that: "The region is secure, and the citizens do not have to worry about violent action."
The streets tell a different story. "I'm not afraid of any terrorists," a citizen of Iran said. "Terrorists weren't the ones who invaded my home and shot my brother! I'm not afraid, but ADVENT certainly should be!"
He was questioned later for information on known terrorist or insurrectionists groups. His current status is unknown, but he is not alone in his sentiment. Many of the people now living under ADVENT control have little sympathy or love for ADVENT soldiers, whom they view as another in the list of western occupiers to exploit the region.
Talking to them, common threads appear to emerge. It is very rare to speak with someone and find they have not lost anyone they know, or know someone who has. Mothers, fathers, siblings, friends, there is no one in the Middle East who has not lost someone in the short-lived conflict against ADVENT. Many men in particular had enlisted in the militaries – which were decimated by ADVENT in Operation: Deus Vult.
For the survivors, there is implicit fear and distrust of ADVENT. "It's going to be a struggle," Marshall said when describing the Reconstruction. "The region suffered after the fall of the Caliphate, and has never recovered fully. It will take time for people to realize that we're going to make things better."
Until the point is reached, ADVENT acknowledges that it's going to be a long, rocky road to mutual trust. "I know we're missing things," Reconstruction Peacekeeper Overseer Lora admitted. "It's difficult to convince High Command to prioritize a transition to a Peacekeeper force because of how uncooperative the citizens are being. They obstruct us as best they can. We can't be a law enforcement force if the citizens don't call us for help. ADVENT is afraid that if the military pulls out completely, we will be operating in enemy territory. The citizens are not on our side, and ADVENT High Command and Intelligence see them as a threat – which is exactly why we need to transition before something gets worse."
The description of enemy territory is not an inaccurate one. There is clear tension in the air when walking the streets of Baghdad or Damascus, and seeing the glances to the side and the contempt some display when they pass the armored soldiers. But there is also a palpable fear. Mothers who hide their children and quickly shuffle past guards. Men who stare contemptuously and look away when the eyeless helmets turn in their direction.
ADVENT has inherited a population which wishes to revolt, but is afraid of the consequences of open defiance. It remains to be seen if ADVENT will ever be able to bridge this gap. "Two things will happen," a regional journalist in the region told me. "Enough time will pass before things settle into an equilibrium – or a miracle will happen. Between the two, I think we know which is more likely. Things here will get worse before they get better."
- Article | Aftermath of Deus Vult: Defiance and Fear
ADVENT Misconduct Report | Military
Reviewer: Asmar Jordan | Oversight Division
Submitter: Lutfi el-Musa | Civilian (Saudi Arabia) | Requested Anonymity
Complaint Type: Vandalism; Public Harassment; Professional Misconduct
Evidence Medium: Video | Twitter and Physical
Evidence Strength: Strong | High Quality | Multiple Sources | Verified Sources (Considered Reliable) | Source Willingness to Testify
NATURE OF COMPLAINT: Approximately six days ago, a complaint was submitted to the Oversight Division for review, alleging misconduct and public vandalism by uniformed ADVENT soldiers within the Israeli Legion. The event is alleged to have taken place shortly after the completion of Operation: Deus Vult, and involved the implicated soldiers pulling down a statue of the Inheritor King of the Caliphate, and preventing onlooking civilians from stopping them. The complaint alleges the Officer was present and allowed the soldiers to proceed, and several of the soldiers threatened to use force against the onlookers. There was no violence beyond verbal altercations and both parties dispersed after the incident.
EVIDENCE REVIEW: Following the date of the incident, four videos surfaced on Twitter and other social media sites showcasing the incident from multiple angles. These did not receive viral traction due to algorithmic isolation of the region, but each relevant video was submitted alongside the complaint, along with original source videos from the physical device.
The incident took place in the late afternoon, prior to curfew, and approximately two dozen ADVENT soldiers identified as part of the Israeli Legion were present, with a small number creating a perimeter around the statue of the Inheritor King of the Caliphate. One ADVENT Israeli Officer was present, and appears to be directing or assisting in the incident.
It shows the soldiers utilizing chains, ropes, and other industrial equipment to take the statue down, which is done over the course of ten minutes. Upon the collapse, several soldiers intentionally broke it into smaller pieces. No cleanup was conducted before the soldiers departed the scene.
A crowd of roughly thirty to forty Saudi civilians (it is not clear from the videos if there were more or the numbers significantly fluctuated) had gathered, and verbally protested the removal. They were ordered to refrain from moving closer, with several soldiers indicating and brandishing their weapons, which caused the civilians to refrain from moving forward.
Video captured does not identify the Officer who was present, but does capture the names of approximately eight of the soldiers present, all of whom are confirmed to be Israeli Legion, and were in the area at the time of the incident.
REVIEWER JUDGEMENT: The evidence is irrefutable, and each of the participants involved is in clear violation of the military code of conduct and should be disciplined accordingly. This is not acceptable behavior, especially considering the circumstances of the previous operation. All participants must be identified, along with any others who may have been aware of their intent.
RECOMMENDED ACTION: All identified soldiers in the incident should be placed on suspension, and removed from the region immediately with investigations into any other incidents or altercations they may have been involved in. The Officer involved should be stripped of rank, and similarly removed from the region with a further review to determine if they were involved in any similar incidents.
ADVENT should release an official statement announcing the disciplinary action, and name all involved soldiers. This should NOT be done until all soldiers have been identified and removed. If the media inquires before this point, ADVENT should state they are aware of the situation and are taking action. ADVENT should replace the statue in question, either locally or externally, due to the cultural importance of the landmark.
Finally, ADVENT should heavily publicize this decision and indicate that this was brought about by a complaint submitted to the Oversight Division, while stressing the importance of reliable evidence. This action will hopefully encourage civilians to be more proactive in reporting misconduct of ADVENT forces within the region.
If the above are not implemented, an explanation or an alternative must be provided. A failure to execute will result in escalation to Oversight Investigation Command.
RIYADH – Culminating in one of the most unprecedented elections in Human history, Hakeem Al-Saud emerged from the Middle Eastern States election victorious in a near-clean sweep, claiming an astonishing eighty-five percent of the vote, with his closest opponent coming in at only seven percent.
The previously unheard of candidate emerged to the shock of the region, and, while he never explicitly confirmed his origin, rumors dogged him throughout the campaign. In an inverse of the norm, the rumors, which claimed he was the previously assumed dead son of the Inheritor King, before his execution at the orders of the Caliph, only benefited him.
It is unknown where these rumors originated, but they have spread throughout the region, triggering a long-lost nostalgia for the golden age of the Caliphate, which the Inheritor King was instrumental in founding. While Hakeem never acknowledged the rumors, he did not downplay or dispute them either, which only added fuel to the rampant speculation.
Complicating matters further, an unsigned Islamic decree has been circulated which declared Hakeem as the Caliph returned, which has spread like wildfire across the region. It appears legitimate according to multiple sources, but the origin is unknown. No Imam has stepped forward to claim it, but, notably, none of them have explicitly stated that it is a forgery - which has only added to the speculation, and caused heated insinuations from several Iranian Shia candidates that the Imams were trying to install a Sunni puppet - a claim which has been staunchly denied.
"This isn't an election for a president," regional affairs expert Joli Aryus has noted. "This is the appointment of a new Caliph." It is a sentiment which has led to foreign concern about the legitimacy of the election, and a fear of a return to the theocratic rule of the Caliphate for the region. Several government officials have lodged complaints with the Oversight Division, along with many non-regional citizens expressing concern for the growing wave of support behind Hakeem.
ADVENT Election Oversight was forced to issue a statement which read the following:
"The current elections which are taking place in all Middle Eastern States are in full compliance with the rules and guidelines established by this body. Candidate Hakeem al-Saud has met all established criteria and is fully eligible to run for the office of President of the Middle Eastern States. This is a reminder that false or unsubstantiated reports lower the efficiency of Election Oversight and the Oversight Division, and repeated submissions will lead to arrest and prosecution."
Hakeem's candidacy has sparked a fierce firestorm of discussion around whether his victory would be best for the region. His heritage, not only as a Saudi royal, but also directly tied to the legacy of the Caliphate, has made outside observers wary. While less problematic, his nature as a Sunni Muslim has made him disliked in Iran and parts of Iraq that are predominantly Shia. "The region will be difficult with a Saudi royal in charge, and a Sunni no less," human rights journalist Mary Tilos warned. "It remains to be seen if any progressive change can happen."
She is not alone in her concern that the region will continue to perpetuate a status quo, despite ADVENT providing resources to qualified candidates. No female candidate achieved more than one percent of the overall vote, although women scored a number of regional victories in elections across the region, but the political landscape overall remains heavily male and Islamic, to the dismay of equality advocates.
"It's unfortunate," one worker commented. "We tried hard, but, with all of the rumors, resentment towards ADVENT, and culture, we didn't make nearly as much ground as we hoped. There is a lot more work to do in the region, and a lot more minds that need to be changed."
While Hakeem was the overall favorite in the election once he emerged, many outside observers were staking their hopes on his closest rival Zufar Huq, a former Syrian governor who was running on a solidly moderate and pro-ADVENT integration platform, who attracted the support of outsiders and most of the Shia demographic. Hakeem instead focused his campaign on a new era for the Middle East, focusing specifically on the region and people instead of ADVENT as a whole.
"It was too western," a political commentator noted, when speaking about Huq. "And the people didn't want anything to do with the West, or ADVENT. The only reason Iran went for him was because the alternative was a Sunni, not even because they agreed with him on everything. Hakeem was a rebellion in some respects. Sanctioned and approved by ADVENT, yes, but he is very much his own man with his own agenda, and the people responded. This is only a surprise if you weren't paying attention."
While ADVENT has officially congratulated and acknowledged Hakeem's victory, representatives in France, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan have issued independent statements, which were far more guarded than optimistic, some of them noting odd irregularities, and requesting an investigation into potential tampering.
This was conducted by Election Oversight, and they stated the following: "We have found no evidence suggesting that the Hakeem campaign was engaging in illegal activity, or was directing groups and individuals to do so on his behalf. No ADVENT officials broke endorsement regulations, and there is no rule against private citizens providing their own endorsement."
What everyone can agree on is that it appears to prove that Election Oversight is actually as non-partisan as it claimed. Hakeem was not the candidate most friendly to ADVENT, and many were hoping for another victor. But not only did Hakeem win, he won in numbers so overwhelming there can be no doubt that he has been given the mandate of the people.
Time will soon tell if he can bring his vision to fruition – all under the ever-present eye of ADVENT.
Article | Hakeem al-Saud Elected as Regional President in Overwhelming Victory
To: Karen Marshall
From: Amalda Stein
CC: Elizabeth Falka
Subject: Peacekeeper ME Presence
Marshall,
I've looked over your plan over the next month. There are some significant concerns I have with it. It was questionable enough when we reduced our military presence and nearly had a disaster with the Lion fiasco, but this appears to be going in the exact opposite direction.
The region is continually unstable, and even if you believe we dodged a bullet with this terrorist now 'working' with us, it might be worth actually seeing if there are tangible results before putting our soldiers and Peacekeepers at risk?
Downsizing at this stage is dangerous. You have no idea how many bomb makers and informants we've arrested since Deus Vult finished, and those are definitely not the only ones. We need to make the Middle East safe, and progress is being made. This plan puts this into jeopardy. This requires my objection.
- Amalda Stein, Chief of Peacekeeper Operations
xxx
To: Amalda Stein
From: Karen Marshall
CC: Elizabeth Falka; Laura Christiaens
Subject: RE: Peacekeeper ME Presence
Amalda, I expected you to respond,
Initially, I wasn't in favor of such a drastic reduction either. However, the reasons for it are compelling, and if you read through the snapback contingencies, we're not going to be going into this with our eyes closed. This policy was put together with multiple regional experts, as well as our new allies, all of whom have a better grasp on the population dynamics and psychology than we do.
Our autopsy did reveal some flaws in our initial approach in Deus Vult. We have currently treated the region as a threat, and acted accordingly. We did succeed in containing a threat, the issue is that we intend to fully modernize and bring the region into ADVENT, and we can't exactly do that if we are considered an enemy.
De-escalation is necessary to begin the actual transition from occupying force to protector. That, unfortunately, does not happen overnight, and if no one takes the first step, it won't be done. The Lion has an absurd amount of sway, and these are a very culturally tight people. He effectively said that he can make sure the region does not cause any issues, if, in return we can show that we give them a chance by treating them as a proper member nation, not an occupied state.
Commander Christiaens agreed that this was an idea worth implementing. If the Lion has lied, the snapback allows us to return Peacekeeper force levels to their maximum. We lose nothing from this, and considering the consequences if this does not work out, I suspect that we will not have a surge of crime by withdrawing a few of our Peacekeepers.
I hope this has allayed your concerns.
- Karen Marshall
xxx
To: Karen Marshall
From: Amalda Stein
CC: Elizabeth Falka; Laura Christiaens; Keith Watkins
Subject: RE: Peacekeeper ME Presence
I appreciate the prompt response, Mrs. Marshall, to respond to some of the points you raised:
I remain concerned that much of our Middle East policy is being dictated to us by a man who, by his own admission, was willing to start a bloody, pointless revolt with alien backing. The fact that he saw the light is all well and good, but, frankly, that kind of individual belongs behind bars, not advising regional policy.
It smacks of a hostage situation of sorts, with him holding the lives of the region and saying 'do this or you'll have to fight a rebellion'. We do not negotiate with hostage takers or terrorists, and I remain puzzled as to why we are acquiescing when we do not need to. ADVENT is not beholden to this man or his ideas. It sends extremely mixed messages around the world, even if the full story is not known to the public.
I remain unconvinced that this is in the best interests of ADVENT or the region. At the risk of speaking outside my position, I believe this approach is a mistake.
xxx
To: Amalda Stein
From: Keith Watkins
CC: Elizabeth Falka; Laura Christiaens; Karen Marshall
Subject: RE: Peacekeeper ME Presence
Chief Stein,
To your point of concern regarding the Lion, I will assure you that we have carefully reviewed his profile and performed multiple interviews, including a psionic interrogation. We know exactly where he stands and what he intends, and it has been determined that he is no longer a threat to ADVENT, and that we have more to gain with him on board than in a cell.
I will remind you that there are many people in ADVENT, including yourself, who have less-than-savory backgrounds, which were overlooked because you were the best individual for the role ADVENT needed. The same applies here. From the moment he officially became part of ADVENT, he became subject to ADVENT law, just as the rest of us, and it can be confirmed that he has not broken it.
He is under the same observation and responsibility as all are. The concern that he is using ADVENT or seeks to undermine it is unfounded and dismissed. In the event that he is found to be working against the interests of ADVENT, he will be arrested and prosecuted. He is well aware of the consequences of breaking ADVENT law, and is more interested in providing for the region, and that is best served by working with ADVENT, not against it.
Chancellor Vyandar, Director Falka, and Commander Christiaens have all reviewed and approved of the plan put forward by Marshall. Your objection has been noted, but you are overruled. Your compliance is expected.
- Keith Watkins, Chief Overseer
xxx
To: Keith Watkins
From: Amalda Stein
CC: Elizabeth Falka; Laura Christiaens; Karen Marshall
Subject: RE: Peacekeeper ME Presence
Chief Overseer,
With as much respect as I can summon, that was a wholly inaccurate and uncalled for comparison. The man was a bonafide terrorist, and to compare his situation to my own - or frankly anyone in ADVENT - is wholly insulting and demeaning. This is a man who, from what I have gathered, was tied to the Caliphate after they began their conquest.
And now this man is working in ADVENT in a position of power?
This man should be in prison, regardless of his so-called 'contributions'. ADVENT does not need to use everyone, or at minimum reward them for taking the initiative. Were the Battlemaster to immediately defect to us, would you provide him with a seat at the strategy table, or would you execute him, as expected? This is no less of a valid comparison.
Simply put, we do not need nor should we want someone like this working within ADVENT. Were he anyone else, in any other situation, he would be condemned to execution or the Experimentation Labs within hours of his arrest. He should not get a pass because he happened to do the right thing for once in his life. How exactly can we claim to be a body of law and order when men like this command our soldiers and advise our leaders?
Forgiveness is one thing, rewarding it is another. Let a court decide if his decisions are enough to mitigate his crimes. Do not make that decision for them.
- Amalda Stein, Chief of Peacekeeper Operations
xxx
To: Amalda Stein
From: Keith Watkins
CC: Elizabeth Falka; Laura Christiaens; Karen Marshall
Subject: RE: Peacekeeper ME Presence
Chief Stein,
This conversation has shifted from the Middle Eastern Peacekeeper policy into unrelated matters. I would suggest you comply with the request of Marshall, and if you wish to continue this conversation, please do so on a different inquiry. Be advised that we have taken multiple factors into consideration when determining what role this man would play in ADVENT.
We do not require your approval, and this is not the first time you have raised these concerns. They are noted. Repeating them will not change our decision. If you continue to believe an error was made, you are welcome to file a complaint with the Oversight Division alleging mismanagement, along with the potential libel consequences that come with it.
- Keith Watkins, Chief Overseer
ADVENT Military Assessment 046
Author: General Hank Avel
Assessment Type: Legion Assessment (Middle Eastern)
OVERVIEW: The reconstruction of the disparate Middle East militaries into a cohesive Legion can easily be considered one of the most intensive and challenging objectives we could attempt to achieve. There are cultural, ethnic, and gender difficulties which have been ingrained throughout generations of families.
Bringing all of these various groups, sects, and ethnicities together and not having it degenerate is an accomplishment in and of itself. This is not taking into account the wildly different standards of military training, discipline, and language barriers that exist. Put together, there was considerable concern that the Middle East Legions would not materialize in any real capacity for at least two years.
However, this assessment has been severely recalculated due to several developments which also directly contributed to the overall regional stability. The agreement made with the Lion was the largest factor, and the integration of his soldiers and command corps into the existing fold. Frankly, we needed someone like him to make this work, even if the individual in question is not of the highest repute.
LEADERSHIP AND COMMAND: While I have been overseeing the management of the Legion very closely, there is no question that it is the Lion who is making this work together. While he is not especially thrilled by the close observation, he has adapted to the limitations placed on him, and worked to organize the legion into something workable.
A major component of this was a larger segregation along ethnic and gender lines. He laid it out very plainly that forcing groups to work together without time and significant team-building would lead to significant internal problems. This was agreed to on the condition that inter-ethnic and gender Platoons be phased in over the year. He is confident that after a few combat experiences, the friction between groups will begin to diminish.
The officer corps he brought with him have also worked to execute his leadership agenda within the confines of ADVENT restrictions. They have their own ADVENT-origin counterparts they work closely with, and, thus far, we are not seeing dangerous deviation or misconduct. He appears to have been good on his word about cooperating.
The lingering concern is, of course, that these officers are not loyal to ADVENT, but to the Lion, who is also not working truly for ADVENT, but for the region as a whole. He is not intrinsically reliable, and pretending that he is is dangerous. I do not believe there is a risk of defection or sabotage, but he is not one of us, and he knows exactly how much influence he has over the Legion.
None of my colleagues trust him for good reason, and I am afraid that this mistrust will linger until he can prove himself and his officers readily. This is not unfairness, but common sense. Do not forget that this man was ready to wage an insurgency against ADVENT, and, if not for a miracle, he would have caused significant damage, and likely knocked out the entire region for the duration of the war.
DEMOGRAPHICS AND COMPOSITION: There are significant mixtures of genders, religions, and ethnicities within the Middle Eastern Legion. Unlike a place where there is similar ethnic diversity, such as the United States, this matters far more here, due the existing enmity between ethnic groups, religious sects, and cultural norms.
From a religious standpoint, nearly eighty percent are Sunni Muslims, while fifteen percent are Shia Muslims, with the rest a combination of Judaism, Christianity, and other religious minorities. Within that, there are Iranians, Saudis, Syrians, Yemenis, Iraqis, Kurds, and many more. Some groups will be able to work well with others, where the various cultures come into play, and some will not.
A significant success is the recruitment of a significant number of women into the Legion, who comprise close to thirty percent of all personnel, mostly in support roles, but a notable number of frontline fighters. Initially there was some degree of harassment from less-enlightened male soldiers, but sharply dropped off after said soldiers were disciplined. The Lion warned that punishment like that could potentially backfire, but in this instance he was overruled. While ADVENT standards do get bent in some instances, targeted harassment is not one of them.
As mentioned above, most are divided along gender and ethnic lines at the Platoon Level. Depending on culture, co-op squads of men and women exist if they are the same ethnicity, otherwise they are divided by gender and ethnicity. It has been noted that the women are more capable of working together despite differing ethnicities and religious sects, so, in many cases, they can be grouped together.
The Lion has also worked the Islamic daily prayers, which would have been an issue due to the Legion being almost exclusively composed of Muslims. Since we cannot have an entire legion break from prayers at a single time, they are staggered by platoon and location over the period of an hour. It is something of a logistical nightmare, but a functional system has been established.
These will be suspended during actual combat operations.
DISCIPLINE AND TRAINING: Not especially spectacular.
The fall of the Caliphate marked the end of any real military prowess the Middle East had. Their greatest advantage was terrain, and they were simply not adept enough at employing it successfully. The years that followed were despots attempting to cling onto what remained of their power against wandering warlords and terrorists.
Too many actual officers either defected, were bought out by Turkey, or created their own bands of terrorists. Ironically, the Middle East had a fairly promising officer corps – only it was scattered and self-centered. Many of them were brought under the Lion when he emerged, and now they are working for us.
This results in a leadership which understands what needs to be done, and a soldier corps which is wholly unprepared for modern military training and discipline. The good news is that the Lion and his officers know some techniques and shortcuts that can save some time and get everyone on the same page.
The bad news is that even that is going to take time, and, combined with the complexity of the Legion's composition, this is going to be a long process. I can personally say that they have improved from where we began. They can march in formation, respond to non-Arab superiors, and there is some form of discipline ingrained in them.
I do not believe it is enough, yet. Not by a long shot.
DEPLOYMENT ASSESSMENT: The Middle Eastern Legion is not ready for deployment.
The leadership is qualified, but the soldiers are simply not ready, as detailed above. In an absolutely worst-case scenario, we could utilize them. There is a chance they could hold a position without breaking, but the assessment even on that is doubtful. They remain too untrained and undisciplined to put any significant amount of faith in them.
Furthermore, there is the concern of their ultimate loyalty to ADVENT. The majority of the soldiers – like the officers – are loyal to each other and the Lion rather than ADVENT itself. It is a concern that cannot be ignored, and there exists the unfortunately real possibility that they would rather choose to protect their own than follow orders given by ADVENT High Command.
The Middle Eastern Legion, at this point, feels like a dice roll. There is a potential to roll a double six, but it comes with the risk of self-destructing if you roll any other number. We can work to bring the odds up to more acceptable levels, but that takes time, willingness, and systemic shifts in mindset, of which sounds like an impossible task.
The one bright spot that I have noted is that these men and women can be clever when they want to be. They've been experimenting with a self-designed Celestial framework of all things, which I have passed on to ADVENT Engineering as something potentially promising.
They also are quite creative and talented when it comes to distinctly non-traditional tactics, which are born from previous insurgency operations. While normally such tactics are not useful in a proper military, quite a few of them have been modified to be effective in certain situations, primarily when speed is of the essence. Some of them have notable promise, especially if a Legion may want to transition to asymmetrical warfare.
I wager that it is possible that the Legion could be the birthplace of an entirely new Legion deployment strategy. It would be foolish to ignore it, especially if it is tested and is successful. Such tests are being considered right now, and I am overseeing preliminary ones. I want to stress - again - that the Middle Eastern Legions have immense potential to be unique in all of ADVENT. They can be some of our strongest assets.
But the question must be asked – can we rely on them now?
The answer is no – but we are getting closer every day.
A/N: This is the first of a few XCOM files which are going to focus on what's been happening since ADVENT took the Middle East. There may be some events and people which you won't have heard of, but who will be very important to it. This is both because the region is going to become very relevant in the near future within the main story, and because HailtotheKing has been working very hard behind the scenes to flesh out the Middle East and how the region has developed. You'll see this come together within the next few chapters.
- Xabiar