ADVENT | History
The Damascus Negotiations I
"Is this even something ADVENT would consider?"
"I wouldn't think so, but that's what they're saying."
"We going to run this? I don't see a lot of people being happy."
"No, and that's exactly why we're going to do it."
- Journalists William Xhu and Cora Jackson, upon hearing of negotiations opening between ADVENT and the Ethereal Collective over the Second Guardian
To Chancellor Saudia Vyandar of ADVENT,
This is an official notice of willingness to open negotiations for the release of the Second Guardian of the Ethereal Collective to the Ethereal Collective, from the currently recognized joint ADVENT-XCOM custody. We are prepared to enter into joint or separate negotiations with both ADVENT and XCOM.
Due to the unique circumstances in this situation, we are willing to have negotiations mediated by an independent third party. Ethereal Sana'Ligna has expressed her willingness to participate, and we are prepared to accept her mediation. While mediation is not required, it is an option should you wish to consider it.
The Ethereal Collective is willing to offer concessions in return for her release free of harm or mental and physical tampering. These concessions are variable, though understand that they will be equivalent in importance and value to the Second Guardian. Upon acceptance of this notice, we will provide a list of concessions we are willing to provide.
We understand that there will likely be significant opposition from your Human citizens, but it is encouraged that you consider the precedent you will set should you choose to perform irreversible actions, including that of execution. The Second Guardian has performed no action that has been outside the confines of acceptable conflict.
Conflict that both the Ethereal Collective and ADVENT have been waging now. We both understand that participation in war is not inherently worthy of condemnation, else all war is unjust and all soldiers deserving of nothing but death. This is an unreasonable stance, and should not be altered merely because your captive is an Ethereal. She is a participant in this war, and I ask that she be treated like one. Confine her as you see fit, but treat her as you would hope your own people are treated.
We will await your response, and are ready to begin the negotiations.
- The Battlemaster of the Ethereal Collective
NEW YORK – While there has been considerable coverage on the Battle of the Hiveship, and the capture of the Second Guardian of the Ethereal Collective, considered one of the greatest military achievements of ADVENT, there was an open question of how the Collective was planning to respond.
ADVENT officials had signaled that they were likely to prosecute and execute the Second Guardian, though this has not been confirmed as charges have not been brought before the Second Guardian, and no court procedures have begun. ADVENT confirmed that there were multiple procedures being started, but declined to confirm which ones.
The question many have had is how the Collective planned to handle this development. Many experts speculated that the Collective may remain quiet as they assess their options, settling largely on an eventual military action. A route seen as less likely was an attempted negotiation for the release of the Second Guardian.
"The Collective would be forced to make significant concessions," a former economic negotiator said. "These wouldn't be small ones either. I'm speaking of entire battle plans being shut down, offensives ended, and territory ceded. This is saying nothing of the hit to their image the Collective would suffer. Is it the smart thing to do? Yes. Are they going to go through with it? Very unlikely. They aren't the type to negotiate."
However, news has broken that the Collective has indeed reached out to ADVENT for negotiation over the release of the Second Guardian. While there have been no details released or provided, ADVENT has confirmed that they are in the process of negotiations, and subsequently, all potential legal action against the Second Guardian has been halted.
The ADVENT Military, ADVENT Intelligence, and the Oversight Division declined to comment, and directed all inquiries to ADVENT Public Relations, which released a statement a short time ago.
"ADVENT is currently in the process of negotiating the fate of the Second Guardian, recently captured and currently held in a joint ADVENT-XCOM location. The Collective has reached out to negotiate an agreement, and we have assessed that their interest is genuine. We have no further comment on the details being discussed at this time."
The unusually constrained statement has generated a significant number of questions, and backlash from citizens and retired officials. "There isn't anything they could give that's worth an Ethereal," a former military official stated. "Literally nothing. This is an asset the Collective won't get back. I don't know what they're thinking, honestly. It's already a stretch to think they'll act in good faith, let alone that the idea itself is good."
Families of soldiers who have died in battles with the Second Guardian have also spoken out against any potential negotiations. "How many men and women died taking that alien ship?" one mother of a recently killed soldier said. "My son was one, and there were hundreds of others. Many of them were killed by her. To even consider doing anything to that monster outside of killing her is an insult to their memories and everyone who still fights. What's the point of capturing these aliens if ADVENT will just release them later?"
"We don't negotiate with terrorists, so we shouldn't negotiate with aliens," another citizen stated. "She's killed hundreds of us. Time for her to face the consequences. All Ethereals deserve is to be taken out back and shot. But if ADVENT wants to put her back on the field killing us, then sure, go for it. You can be damn sure the Oversight Division will fix this."
Online sentiment has largely echoed resistance to proposed negotiations, which ADVENT has not directly commented on, despite being asked for input. While details remain scarce, it is notable that the negotiations on the Collective side appear to be led by the Battlemaster, whose previous experiences with ADVENT indicate the primary reason why ADVENT is willing to entertain the idea of negotiation.
It is unknown just how much influence the Battlemaster will have over negotiations, or if he will have the authority to grant the concessions ADVENT will doubtlessly demand. Nonetheless, several experts have said that even if the negotiations fail, ADVENT would be foolish to not reach out.
"The Battlemaster is one of the only Ethereals that ADVENT would consider reasonable," one former diplomat said. "Probably because he's not a diplomat, honestly. The Battlemaster has his agenda, but he's been shown to be willing to negotiate or reconsider when he feels it is possible. Florida was a good example. I don't think ADVENT would – or should – accept a proposed negotiation by anyone else."
"Acceptance or not, this was the right move for ADVENT to make," another career negotiator said. "ADVENT has absolutely nothing to lose from listening to what the Collective offers. I'm confident they won't take a deal that will backfire, and more importantly, it shows their willingness to sit down and talk with enemies. This will be important if there comes a time we do need to talk. If we reject out of hand, how can there be any peace or talking between both sides? Loathe as we are to admit it, this war can't go on forever, and frankly, it's much more likely there will need to be a peaceful resolution. ADVENT is thinking ahead, and I hope they do not cave to the public outrage."
Regardless of the reasons ADVENT has decided to pursue this path, it will likely consume their attention for the coming weeks. ADVENT has indicated that they will release additional details in the coming days, and those will almost certainly give deeper insights in both what ADVENT is attempting to get, and their own confidence in the negotiations.
Article: "Negotiations for the Release of the Second Guardian Opened Quietly by ADVENT"
To the Battlemaster,
As we have begun moving to negotiations with ADVENT, it is important to consider what they will likely demand in return for the release of the Second Guardian. Please note that this does not include the potential impact that XCOM may or may not have on negotiations, but solely focuses on ADVENT themselves as they are the primary point of contact, and primary Human power.
These concessions will be arranged in order of what is most likely to be presented, with a spectrum of how much or little could be demanded. These will progress into less likely, but potentially possible concessions that can be demanded. It should be noted that this is solely an analysis, and will not present our own red lines and limits – that will be for a different document.
LIKELY CONCESSION – PERSONNEL REPATRIATION: As we are requesting that ADVENT return the Second Guardian to us, it is almost certain that ADVENT will demand the release of a majority of all Humans that are currently detained. It is possible that they will only request ranking officers, but considering the leverage they hold, it is almost certain they will demand most or all captives.
It is also possible that we could leverage this ourselves, and potentially secure the release of a number of Collective captives in addition to the Second Guardian. The soldiers themselves are largely irrelevant, and this is a single piece of the negotiations. It should be left open as an option, but we should be prepared for this demand.
LIKELY CONCESSION – LIMITED CEASEFIRE: After the feasibility of a temporary ceasefire was demonstrated in Florida, it is very likely that ADVENT may seek to replicate that on various battlefronts across the world. They are very unlikely to demand more than several key fronts (where they may be losing), but they will be major ones.
These could include Brazil, Utah, and Seoul. It is possible – if unlikely – that they could also demand a temporary ceasefire in Africa, though this is unlikely. The duration of this ceasefire would vary, though we estimate it would be no fewer than several weeks, and no longer than two months. More than this would be surprising, and would signal a shift in long-term ADVENT goals that we would need to closely consider.
LIKELY CONCESSION – RESOURCES: ADVENT seeks to acquire as many resources as possible to supply their armies, fortifications, and defenses. They are well aware that the Collective vastly exceeds them in terms of raw resources, and know that they can make significant demands that will not overly burden us.
These would likely include transfers of elerium, alloys of all densities, precious minerals such as platinum and gold, and potentially alien foods or equipment to better provide for their alien defectors. The amounts of these would be large enough to last them for a significant while, or otherwise grant future self-sufficiency.
LIKELY CONCESSION – ARMS RESTRICTIONS: It is very likely that ADVENT will demand that certain weapons and units not be deployed for a certain time, or permanently, on the battlefield. ADVENT is likely knowledgeable enough to not make unreasonable demands, but we consider it likely that they will demand that all Bringarian units be banned from battlefield usage.
This could also apply to bioweapons, the Reinarm Cannon, and potentially certain forms of nanotechnology. It is unlikely that ADVENT would make demands with significant overlap with their own weapons, such as nanotech, as they would not be able to reasonably make this demand while also not abiding by an arms restriction. We expect restriction proposals to be extremely focused, and not generalized.
POTENTIAL CONCESSION – TERRITORY RETURN: It is possible that ADVENT will demand the full withdrawal of military forces from controlled territory across the world. We do not expect this to be far-reaching, but it can be most applied in Ukraine, and portions of the United States and Southeast Asia.
It is unknown if ADVENT would make this demand, as it would be a temporary concession that will immediately be lost as we could reclaim it. It is likely this would be conditioned by demilitarizing the region for a certain amount of time, which would make it more difficult for us to reclaim previous territory.
POTENTIAL CONCESSION – WORLD CEASEFIRE: It is possible – not likely – that ADVENT may demand a full ceasefire on all fronts on Earth. This would be more of a signal to us, rather than a concession, that ADVENT is seeking an end to the war entirely, and they now believe it can be achieved through diplomatic means.
A concession like this is not something that ADVENT expects to be granted, but is to showcase their long-term intentions. While ADVENT would not oppose a ceasefire like this if proposed and accepted, they likely realize that this is not feasible, and will not expect us to take it as more than the signal it is.
UNLIKELY CONCESSION – PEACE DEAL: Building off the previous concession, it is possible, though very unlikely that ADVENT may use this as an opportunity to begin drawing down the war entirely, and seek a permanent peace deal. This would obviously entail a completely different arrangement, and a completely new deal, but using the Second Guardian as leverage is technically possible.
There is almost no chance that this will be proposed. There have been no indications that ADVENT is even considering a peaceful end to the war, nor is there enough domestic unrest that they may be pressured to pursue such an option. This is largely added for posterity and because of the technical possibility. We should not expect this to happen.
UNLIKELY CONCESSION – SECOND GUARDIAN RESTRICTION: ADVENT understands that the return of the Second Guardian would doubtless see her deployed against them, and almost certainly lead to the deaths of ADVENT soldiers. ADVENT is likely aware that any deal to return the Second Guardian will be poorly received by military elements, and may seek to force a concession to mitigate that.
This could include the prevention of the Second Guardian from deployment against ADVENT forces, or potentially even the utilization of Manchurian Restraints to various capacities. Whatever the means, ADVENT may seek to prevent her from becoming a factor on the battlefield, and thus secure the full support of military and public elements.
We rate this as an unlikely demand because it is an unreasonable demand, which ADVENT would be aware of. There is the likelihood that this may be an opening demand, but it will not be one of their red lines, and it is very unlikely that they would push for it unless there is stronger than anticipated military resistance.
UNLIKELY CONCESSION – WITHDRAWN SAS SUPPORT: Another unlikely concession is that ADVENT would demand an end to our supporting the Sovereign African States, leaving them at the mercy of ADVENT to fully dismantle and conquer. While ADVENT would doubtless be pleased with such a development, they are not so unreasonable as to expect this to happen.
What is far more likely is that a concession like this would be a prelude to placing limits on our support to the SAS – which are similarly unreasonable, and there are very few scenarios where we actually believe ADVENT would seriously make these demands. Nonetheless, militarist elements could press them, potentially if they wish to sabotage negotiations, and we should be prepared for the possibility.
UNLIKELY CONCESSION – ALIEN PRIORITIZATION: We consider this an unlikely concession, not because ADVENT wouldn't consider it, but because it is focused on an alien species and government, and ADVENT is likely to gear any demands towards themselves and the war itself.
However, there exists the possibility that ADVENT may see this as an opportunity to spread their influence beyond Earth in a more public way, and use the negotiations to make demands on behalf of allied elements in alien societies. These could include more limited oversight on alien worlds, such as Vitakar, or larger political representation for potentially sympathetic species.
While ADVENT is aware that the long-term ramifications are low, they may be willing to expend some of their leverage to lay groundwork, especially if they have aspirations beyond Earth. This is also an unlikely concession because it would be nearly impossible for ADVENT to enforce or confirm the demands, which they would need to do, and it is unlikely either party would be willing to develop such a mechanism to do so.
This is a largely comprehensive view of what we can expect from ADVENT. As we compile our own responses, we should do so with these proposals in mind. While it is possible that ADVENT will demand something not covered in some capacity here, it is unlikely, or so minor as to ultimately be unimportant.
- Zar'Chon'ravarian'vitiary
Transcript of ADVENT soldiers deploying in China
[Infantry Fan Min]: "Did you hear what ADVENT is doing?"
[Infantry Shao Yi]: "ADVENT does a lot. Specifically…?"
[Infantry Zhen Xiulan]: "Wait. Is this about the Second Guardian?"
[FM]: "Yeah."
[SY]: "I'm out of the loop."
[FM]: "Supposedly, ADVENT is going to negotiate with the aliens for the Second Guardian."
[SY]: "They definitely wouldn't do that."
[ZX]: "You'd think. But I think it's as close to official."
[FM]: "A bunch of media outlets reported on it. Doubt ADVENT would let that go without a challenge if it was false. Even if they're being quiet."
[SY]: "Are they out of their minds?"
[FM]: "If they're actually doing it, yeah they are."
[ZX]: "I personally have no idea why she's still alive. Should have shot her then and there."
[FM]: "Protocols, I guess. But same. At minimum she should be executed."
[SY]: "And ADVENT's not given any reason for this?"
[FM]: "Not publicly. Or privately. Asked my Officer. Said he'd received nothing, no notice, or anything like that."
[SY]: "They'd better have asked some of us how we'd like it if that Ethereal was back on the front lines."
[ZX]: "This is ADVENT. They're going to do what they want. But yeah, this is weird that they'd even entertain it. Do you see a reason why?"
[FM]: "I don't know, a ceasefire? All aliens leave Earth? I don't see anything that's worth giving up an Ethereal for. Or nothing they couldn't just reverse."
[ZX]: "That's right. No reason to think they won't go back on any deal made. And they're definitely not stopping the war."
[SY]: "Maybe it's PR? Make themselves look better?"
[FM]: "To who? The point-one percent of people that care about that? If it was about PR, they'd have shot the Ethereal on television and held a party."
[ZX]: "A bit out there for them."
[FM]: "I know, I know, just pointing out that there are better ways to do PR if that's what they want. Otherwise…I don't think ADVENT would bother with symbolic gestures like this. So either they're becoming more like politicians, or they're actually entertaining whatever the Collective is offering."
[SY]: "I don't like it either way. Or that anyone in ADVENT is considering it, even somewhat."
[ZX]: "Not much we can do about it now."
[FM]: "Unfortunately."
[SY]: "Depends. Once this gets out, I don't see anyone really liking it."
[FM]: "No, but I don't see ADVENT backing down to public or private pressure."
[SY]: "I guess. Hopefully they do the right thing."
[FM]: "Yes. Hopefully."
End Transcript
ADVENT Intelligence Analysis 0281
Subject: Considerations in Second Guardian Negotiations
Recipient: Chancellor Saudia Vyandar
Approved by: Director Ian Powell
Chancellor Vyandar,
As you are now aware, the Ethereal Collective has formally reached out to us to open negotiations for the release of the Second Guardian in exchange for currently unspecified concessions. Per your approval, negotiations are beginning, and before a formal meeting, it is important to analyze all angles of this unique scenario.
There are many factors to consider, including our capabilities of successfully detaining an Ethereal in the long-term (if not executed), what potential consequences await in the event of a successful or failed negotiation, and what concessions could be extracted as well as how these would impact the direction of the war.
This has the potential to be a decision that shapes the course of the war, and we should enter into these negotiations with clarity, as mistakes will wound us in the short and long-term. We cannot afford to make mistakes. With this in mind, the first section is as follows:
SITUATION | SECOND GUARDIAN DETAINMENT: XCOM has most recently changed their position on the detainment of the Second Guardian. Previously, they were in favor of a tribunal, which was likely to lead to her execution. However, they have revised their stance, believing it is feasible to hold the Second Guardian indefinitely. This is likely due to pressure from Aegis, and potential disagreement in the Internal Council over how best to handle her. Aegis is staunchly against the killing of Ethereals, and considering how few Ethereals remain, it is possible others had ethical concerns, as well as believing that execution was unjustified.
With that said, and taking XCOM's own proposals into consideration, we should carefully examine the feasibility of holding the Second Guardian in indefinite detainment.
SHORT-TERM: ADVENT can almost certainly maintain strict control over the Second Guardian in the near term. There are currently teams of joint ADVENT-XCOM psions that are working around the clock to ensure that there is no interference, be it from the Second Guardian or from other Collective psions.
The Second Guardian is physically restrained and deeply sedated, and all indications are that this has proven effective in neutralizing her. We do not know how sustained unconsciousness will affect the long-term health of the Second Guardian, and will need to awaken her at a controlled point to assess any potential damage.
MEDIUM-TERM: XCOM has proposed a combination of implanted explosives and the Manchurian Restraints to be applied to the Second Guardian. They argue that this would provide redundancy in the event of a likely prison break, as it would render the Collective unable to extract her without immediate - and lethal - consequences.
Furthermore, they have argued that the isolated location of the Second Guardian is a further deterrent, as it is unlikely that the Collective knows where she is stored right now. While these deterrents may be effective, each one can be ultimately subverted. The Collective has shown a willingness to go to extreme lengths to rescue or recover Ethereals, and would be willing to devote resources to both determining what restrictions are in place, and working around them.
A prison break attempt is very likely to be a risk in the medium-term, as the Collective would gather information, plot an operation, and carry it out, potentially by one or more major Ethereal or Bringarian units. While it is unknown if they would succeed, we place their chances at moderate, which should not be underestimated.
LONG-TERM: Due to the inherent risks of detaining an Ethereal, even if we were to implement XCOM's suggestions, it would still require continual monitoring and resources devoted to securing the facility - which would not be a minor investment. Less-powerful psions are simply insufficient to secure an Ethereal, and this would mean some of our best will be indefinitely restricted in case there is an attempt made.
Furthermore, the risk of a prison break remains. We cannot afford to slowly draw down detainment protection, else the Collective will then strike and likely succeed in exfiltrating her. We cannot rely on T'Leth's observation either, as it can be subverted by using mechanical units, those with inherent mental defenses like the Battlemaster, or countering influence with Mosrimor's orbs, as Patricia did against XCOM. T'Leth is not a guarantee, and we should not rely on him.
There is also the insider threat risk to consider. There will be those who will NOT approve of detaining the Second Guardian, and may wish to kill her. Should XCOM suggestions be implemented, it would be possible for an insider to trigger them intentionally, and either accept responsibility or play it off as an "accident". While we can take measures to prevent this, the fact is that very few support the idea of indefinitely detaining an Ethereal, and oversight may be lax despite the potential consequences.
I do not need to explain the consequences of the Second Guardian dying in our custody by the hand of ADVENT personnel. It would severely damage relations with XCOM and Aegis in particular, and would almost certainly lead to XCOM demanding full and unrestrained custody of any future Ethereals, which they retain the legal right to do.
To summarize, while in theory we are capable of detaining the Second Guardian indefinitely as XCOM proposes, there are factors in play which would make it costly, and ultimately become riskier as time passes. As we have concluded before, Ethereals are simply too dangerous to detain long-term so long as there is a dedicated opposing force and hostile public sentiment towards them.
COLLECTIVE PROPOSAL | MEDIATION: The Collective has surprisingly proposed that the negotiations entail mediation by an independent third party. While there is a strong argument to be made that this doesn't exist, the Battlemaster has interpreted this to mean the Ethereal Sana'Ligna act as a mediator due to her self-enforced neutrality in the conflict.
A brief analysis is as follows:
SANA'LIGNA: In the most technical of terms, Sana'Ligna is independent. She has openly stated her neutrality, and has been largely true to her word in staying out of the conflict. She has recently been overseeing medical camps that treat both ADVENT and Collective soldiers, and has worked with medics from each.
This has been officially sanctioned by the Battlemaster, or at least he has given his tacit permission for medics to openly work with Sana'Ligna. We believe this could be to keep an eye on her, or because he views it as an efficient way of saving more soldiers. ADVENT has not officially endorsed cooperation, though we have not prosecuted those who have taken part due to Sana'Ligna's unique status as a neutral party. It is something to be more carefully appraised before finalizing policy (see relevant report).
However, while Sana'Ligna is technically independent, she is far from an unbiased party. Her priority will be the same as the Battlemaster's - the return of the Second Guardian to the Ethereal Collective unharmed and untampered. She will likely encourage an agreement that may not be in our interests. She is not necessarily aligned with the Collective, but her sympathies do not lie with us, and as an Ethereal, she will always prioritize one of her own. Her objectivity is in serious question, and should we consider this, we need assurances that any mediation will be properly balanced.
AEGIS: There is an alternative we could propose, either in addition to, or in place of Sana'Ligna. Aegis is another Ethereal that would likely be willing to mediate these discussions. While he likely shares the same priorities as the Battleamster in that he wishes to see her alive, he is far less likely to approve of the release of the Second Guardian without an agreement that is in our interests.
The issue, of course, comes from the fact that Aegis is not an independent third party. XCOM, and by extension Aegis, are firmly opposed to the Ethereal Collective, and it cannot be suggested that Aegis does not have his own compromised objectivity. While Aegis would be more neutral than us, he is nonetheless someone who will hold our interests primarily in mind.
If Aegis is involved, it is strongly recommended that he either be in addition to Sana'Ligna, or as an additional negotiator for ADVENT. We should not propose that Sana'Ligna be removed in place of him, as that would be an objectionable measure, and would signal to the Collective we are not interested in negotiation. We expect that XCOM would be willing to support any role Aegis has in the negotiations.
CONCESSIONS EXTRACTED: There is significant potential for major extractions to be achieved in return for the release of the Second Guardian. This is not going to go into detail over exactly which ones (please see attached document), but will more cover the scope and impact such concessions could have on the war effort.
We assess that the Collective, and Battlemaster in particular, is willing to give significant concessions so long as the Second Guardian is kept unharmed. These are assessed to be multiple temporary ceasefires, the return of most or all current Human POWs, the reduction of support to the Sovereign African States, and providing rare or specialized equipment or resources.
We also believe that we could leverage internal Collective tensions to achieve tangible gains or advantages, particularly concerning Paradise Station. The Battlemaster has expressed hatred of the institution, and has previously denounced it and withdrawn support for Bringarian-led or supported operations. This has been mitigated by other Ethereals or associates taking charge, but nonetheless remains a source of continual friction.
We believe that this could be used to ban or restrict most or all Bringarian units on the battlefield, including Senorium. This would severely disrupt Collective operations in Southeast Asia, and remove a significant number of psions from contention. It would potentially have the largest impact on the war, something we should not discount.
However, something we must keep in mind is how reversible any concessions will be. The Battlemaster may be willing to keep to his word, but other Ethereals, specifically the Imperator, may not. Thus we should work to ensure that any concessions are difficult or impossible to reverse, or if they are, they are met with immediate consequences.
For example, even if the Battlemaster agreed to restrict the deployment of Bringarian units, there is a high possibility this would be reversed by the Imperator. While we do not know the results of this, we assess that this would likely enrage the Battlemaster, and could result in him openly recalling support to certain Collective operations, throwing their operational plans into chaos, and weakening their cohesion worldwide. This would also be an acceptable outcome, if not the best one.
We should not walk into these negotiations with the mindset that a captured Ethereal is so valuable they cannot be exchanged for something better. We are in a position where we have significant leverage - how we use this leverage will decide how these negotiations will be viewed by the public, and by the history books.
RISKS | MILITARY: There is strong opposition to any deal regarding the release of the Second Guardian. Commander Christianes has communicated opposition from herself and a number of ranking officials, citing concerns about returning a significant force multiplier to the front lines that will result in more ADVENT casualties.
It also will return an Ethereal that is one of their commanders, and now has intimate knowledge both of secure ADVENT facilities and how Ethereals are treated. While not especially useful on their own, this nonetheless gives more insight into ADVENT workings than many in the military are comfortable with.
Military officials have also raised the concern that this will be extremely unpopular with the rank and file, especially those who are most at risk for a redeployment of the Second Guardian. While there is no fear of mutiny or desertion because of it, it is very likely that soldiers will refuse to make efforts to take prisoners, and officers will unofficially change their policies regarding aliens to "shoot on sight" when there is the possibility of capture.
Other risks include killings or executions of aliens already in captivity, and while these can be punished, it will likely lead to further resentment against aliens, ultimately leading to fewer captured aliens, which in turn limits our extraction capabilities and weakens our ability to gather intelligence.
RISKS | POLITICAL: Like the military, the public is strongly opposed to releasing the Second Guardian under any circumstances. The announcement of negotiations has already resulted in a spike of anti-alien sentiment, and media reaction has been mixed to negative as it has been discussed.
There are ways this can be mitigated to certain degrees, such as clearly conveying our intentions and willingness to walk away should a deal not be in our interests, and providing quick and concise updates on any developments. However the fact is that most of the public is deeply opposed to a deal, even in our interests, and even should negotiations be successful, it will likely lead to a prolonged period of anti-alien sentiment as disgruntled citizens and officials take it out consciously and unconsciously, on aliens currently being integrated, or otherwise residing under the protection of ADVENT.
There would be significant fallout, and in the short term this simply cannot be mitigated. It is also likely that trust in ADVENT would also fall, regardless of negotiation concessions, though we estimate this would be temporary. While the worst of displayed xenophobia can be mitigated by ADVENT Intelligence and PATRIOT, it will fail to prevent a wider spike that will take time to fully resolve.
This should be considered in our negotiations, and it is not something that we can do much about. In the event of successful negotiations, coordination with the AEGIS Division should be prioritized, and it is recommended that they be in the loop as negotiations proceed.
SCENARIO | FAILED NEGOTIATIONS: While in most situations the failure of negotiations would be a net negative, we do not believe that this would be the case here. Originally, we did not expect this would be the scenario we found ourselves in, and at worst we would be back to where we started.
There are tangible public benefits to failed negotiations as well. We would have sufficiently demonstrated our serious willingness to engage in dialogue with our enemies, but held our ground and did not submit to unfair deals. This would solidify public support behind us regarding any outcome for the Second Guardian and lessen public backlash in any future negotiations that take place, as now the public knows we are willing to refuse a deal if it is not in our interests.
It is unclear how this would change future negotiations with the Ethereal Collective, if at all. We largely assess that it would give negotiation-minded figures in the Collective proof that we are willing to seriously talk, which could open the door for future negotiations in the future. We do not believe that failed negotiations would poison all future talks, so long as we treat them with seriousness.
However, there is a concern that failed negotiations might be branded as wasted time by non-negotiation parties in the Collective, particularly the Imperator, Overmind, or others who have equal or greater authority than the Battlemaster. Despite his rank, the Imperator can overrule him, or in drastic cases, reduce his standing. This would be unlikely, and could trigger internal backlash, that in any case is a benefit for us.
SITUATION | XCOM PERSPECTIVE: XCOM has been appraised of these developments, and they have also expressed support for opening them. XCOM likely would approve of an agreement if it significantly benefits the war effort, and they are less likely to be concerned of the military repercussions, as they were instrumental in the capture of the Second Guardian, and would likely believe they could deal with her should the need arise.
We estimate that successfully negotiating a deal would gain significant XCOM approval, and they would almost certainly be willing to concede any future high-profile captures (particularly Ethereals) directly into ADVENT custody, as we have shown our willingness to detain them indefinitely, and properly utilize them in the event of negotiations.
We would also likely gain the approval of Aegis and Caelior, and while their support is unnecessary in the long-term, the approval of two powerful Ethereals will likely make them more willing to listen to us, and in some cases support ADVENT interests over XCOM. It would embolden Aegis in particular to potentially push for more ADVENT involvement in XCOM operations, and create additional transparency within the organization.
SITUATION | ALIEN PERSPECTIVE: While we do not have detailed insight into the reactions of the Ethereal Collective, we can make some assumptions from the Collective leadership and aliens integrated into ADVENT. Domestically, the news of negotiations has been received with near-universal approval by integrated alien civilians.
This is not surprising, as most aliens still maintain positive views of most Ethereals, including the Second Guardian. Vitakara in particular have a psychological inclination to always support Ethereals, and can become distressed if one of them is derided or killed. The fact that Human support for the Second Guardian's execution is so high has entrenched their own views that she should be spared, though if pressed they will not necessarily have a good reason for this.
Alien citizens are also far more likely to support a peaceful resolution between ADVENT and the Ethereal Collective, and view negotiations as a very positive sign. While this is not our intention, this view does make them inherently inclined to support negotiations, regardless of context.
Should negotiations be successful, they will almost certainly view ADVENT more positively, and gain significant trust in our government. It is also likely that it could encourage more alien defections, or give life to a more pacifist-minded sect of the Vitakara who want to end the war. We are aware that this faction will have no power, but could be an irritant for the Collective to deal with.
Within the Collective, we estimate that negotiations, success or failure, will result in more Collective officials being willing to engage diplomatically in the future. Successful negotiations will empower officials who may want to end or reduce the war, and potentially cause division within the ranks which benefits us.
We do not anticipate overall Collective strategy changing as a result of negotiations, due to the extenuating circumstances. We do believe that this may exacerbate tensions between the Battlemaster and Imperator should the latter disapprove, or views the concessions as unacceptable, but this should not be relied upon, and it is unlikely we would know even if it did happen.