"The key is to always start with everything open as a possibility."
Johnathan, for his part, seemed completely engaged with the lecture I was about to give them. Sortiara though… well, she was trying, but I figured she would lose the battle for sleep before I finished. Ah well; Johnathan can fill her in later, I suppose, should she clock out.
"Of course, some things are always more probable than others. It is good to create an order of possibilities, based on probability; saves time more often than not. However, low probability is not impossibility, and the distinction is important to remember; that's how you find yourself in a world of pain later: by ruling things out too early. In this case, I start by making a giant list of all the names I believe the servant could be, based off of initial appearance, then list them in order by my understanding of their levels of fame; more famous, higher possibility."
"Right" Johnathan nodded. "Then what?"
"Next is to gather the pieces. Again, start with their initial appearance; clothing gives away a fair bit about the time period and region a servant comes from, based on what I've seen so far. In Rider's case, we know he's from the Middle East, or Egypt, or something like that. By the design of his armor, we know that he is from mid-late medieval era, to the renaissance era; scaled plate and chain-veiled helmets to help protect the neck are common in both the regions and time periods I just mentioned. A lack of plate armor on the legs also supports this."
"Couldn't that just… be any Heroic Spirit then" Sortiara yawned, lying back down on the sofa.
"From the time period and region? Yes, but that's not all the pieces. The point is, though, that even from those pieces we can make a solid list. Combine what we saw visually, when the fact he told us his class was Rider, and the list should immediately be comprised of either generals, or rulers, from those eras and regions."
"So, you need to know the class?"
"I mean, yeah…? I'm not a wizard; can't create something from nothing, you know."
"…"
"Anyways, that's the first real step to solving the puzzle. Next… well, Johnathan, what can you tell me about Rider's armor?"
"Uh… it was very shiny?"
"Like it was made out of gold?"
"Yeah, like that."
"And Rider's horse?"
"Also armored."
"Exactly" I smiled. "Now, add those pieces to what we already have, and what names can you begin crossing out from the list?"
"Umm… Uh…"
"Anyone who wasn't stupid rich, is the answer" I freed him from his mental anguish. "Or, in better words, generals who weren't also rulers."
"I see… yeah, that would make sense…"
"We also know that the assassins were under his command. What does that tell us?"
"Uh-"
"Trick question" I cut him off before he really got into trying to work it out. "For now, that on its own doesn't change anything; we already eliminated all non-ruler type generals, and any ruler could, reasonably, have assassins at their disposal. However, it is still a good detail to remember, for a reason that will come up later, so don't forget about it. Point I'm trying to make here is that just because a piece might not change anything about the immediate situation in regards to the puzzle, doesn't mean it's ok to toss it aside."
"...So then, from here…?"
"From here, I want to stop for a moment. …Do you know of many, or any, rulers from these regions and time periods. Or sultans, I should really be saying."
"Not at all; never cared much for medieval history."
"Fair enough: I never cared for medieval history much either, save the crusades and the wars of the roses. However, I do know the big names of history, even if I know nothing else about them besides. That much, you should also try to learn. But yeah, at this point of time, my list was fairly small; only about 8 names or so, unlike with Berserker, who by appearance was way more ambiguous. My line of thinking was actually more renaissance, and the Ottoman Empire. Specifically, my top name was Suleiman I, otherwise known as Suleiman the Magnificent. My second most probable name on my list was Mehmed II, otherwise known as Mehmed the Conqueror. They were very close though, as they would both fit the visual pieces of this puzzle very, very well; only had Suleiman slightly higher cause I figured he was slightly more famous than Mehmed. At this point, I was, like, ninety-five percent certain it was either one of these two men, but again, low probability is not impossibility, and as long as any other potential name maintains at least a sixty percent fit with the puzzle pieces, I won't rule it out."
"Then came Rider's master?"
"No. Then came Rider's personality. As he spoke, what did you gather from him?"
"That he was an important person in life; most likely held some kind of high office."
"Which adds up with our visuals thus far. Good, what else?"
"Well… he seems to value honor highly."
"Is that Rider calling it honor, or Saber?"
"…Saber. Rider called it civil, or civility. But didn't you say-"
"I'm aware of what I said" I raised my hand to stop him. "But that that moment of time, when Rider was speaking to us, did you know what I told you about the nature of language and what I thought Rider was really trying to say?"
"No."
"So then why are you just randomly jumping ahead? That is how you make mistakes; reach the wrong answers. That is how you will die playing this game."
"Ok, ok, I get it! Rider seemed to value civility highly."
"Correct. Now, does that change anything?"
"I wouldn't know."
"For me, it didn't change much. I could cross out some names towards the bottom of my list, but the names closer to the top were still looking good. Granted, it was at this point that I switched the order of Suleiman and Mehmed, but still, they held the top two spots."
"…And then the Executor revealed himself?"
"And then the Executor revealed himself" I nodded. "And suddenly, both those names didn't really fit."
"Because of the religious differences?"
"Exactly! Why would a priest summon a Heroic Spirit of the Islamic faith? That question was nagging me; it just didn't make sense on its own. Either I didn't understand the full nature of the summoning system, which I didn't at the time, or, I figured, he must have used a catalysis and goofed it somehow."
"But you didn't know this?"
"Right, these are assumptions on my part. Hence why I didn't reveal Rider's true name towards the end of the battle when I had more or less figured I had the right person: I didn't know, I was guessing. Unlike with Berserker, where Lancer dodging instead of landing one more blow wouldn't have made a significant difference, or gotten Lancer killed, working off the wrong identity of Rider could have been disastrous."
"So then, how did you reach the name?"
"I worked backwards, trying to think of all the possible catalysts a priest could have used. Naturally, this led me to thinking about the vaults and treasures and artifacts the Catholic Church could possibly have in the modern day. The shrouds or weapons of saints wouldn't make any sense when matched with the other pieces, but one thing I could think of did."
"The True Cross?"
"Yes, the True Cross. Considering this is a war, you want a fighter. Saints could work, but that wouldn't have ended in this result. However, as I mentioned a bit earlier, the True Cross was carried into battle by the Kingdom of Jerusalem as a war alter of sorts, meaning-"
"Meaning a general or ruler of the Kingdom could have been tied to it!"
"So was the assumption. In my mind, there was a perfect candidate to look for using such an artifact as a catalyst: Baldwin IV of Jerusalem. Otherwise known… as the Leper King."
"Wait, why would he do that?"
"…Why wouldn't he do that?"
"Heroic Spirits don't just ignore aspects of their life now; if he was a leper in life, he would still be one as a Heroic Spirit."
"Huh, interesting… so you keep your diseases and weaknesses as well... Good to know. Well, that aside, that was my thought, and even now knowing that, that doesn't change things."
"It doesn't?"
"Nope. Despite being a leper, Baldwin IV was still very successful, and lived far longer than most assumed he would. When Saladin finally did capture Jerusalem, it wasn't on his first attempt, but rather his second. It was while Baldwin IV was alive that Saladin made his first attempt to take control of the holy land, but… well, it didn't go all that well for him, let's say."
"So, this Saladin and Baldwin guy knew each other?"
"Oh yeah, they knew each other. But that's besides the point. Point here is that while Baldwin IV was alive, they carried the True Cross into battle as well, just as they did after he died and the kingdom lost it to Saladin. Thus, it is the only artifact I knew of during the fighting that I figured could have been used as a catalyst, that had a connection to both a hero of the Christian faith, and of the Islamic faith. Once Saladin captured the True Cross, he kept it; even rejected ransom offers for it, at least initially, if not for his entire life; can't remember that bit exactly."
"That could give the connection… But then, Saladin would still have to fit the rest of the pieces, right?"
"Right. So, working off the assumption that the True Cross was used as the catalyst and that Saladin was Rider, I then checked the rest of the pieces. Visually, it still adds up; Saladin, being the sultan of both Egypt and Syria, was a rich motherfucker, believe you me. The armor and garb checks out. Personality wise, Saladin was actually rather… tolerant, I'll say, for his time. While he did wage war against the crusaders and took over Jerusalem, he allowed anyone from all faiths to make pilgrimages to the holy city, and even guaranteed their safety. Considering the era, he was rather open when it came to religion; so long as everyone remained respectful and acknowledged Islamic rule over Jerusalem itself, all were welcome. Even big shot European rulers and kings, like Richard I, being Richard the Lionheart, held Saladin with great respect, and Richard was the guy who would go on the third crusade and fight Saladin, which would end up with a peace agreement and the beginning of the whole 'all were welcome, so long…' thing I just mentioned. That alone was good enough for me to consider it a match, but Saladin also has quite a few stories about him directly going to the aide of his people, like paying of ransoms for families that couldn't afford to pay for their loved one's return, and he gave up all his personal wealth to his poorer subjects on his death. When he did capture Jerusalem, he set a really low ransom, for the time, on the Frankish inhabitants, and even let the ones who couldn't afford to pay just leave. He also allowed the Jews to resettle in the city, which, compared to the situation going on over there in the modern day, well… I could go on and on about this man, but really, if you ask me, he was one of the most stand up, good guys of his era."
"So… long story short: personality also checks out?"
"Oh, hell yeah, it checks out! Because all that checked out, I pretty much figured it had to be him, but I still wanted to know for sure how the summoning system works before I revealed it, just in case I was missing something on that end that would throw it way off."
"But still, why would the grail pull Saladin, rather than Baldwin?"
"Who knows? Maybe because Saladin, I'd imagine, is far more famous in the modern day, it tried him first? Maybe because Baldwin IV isn't actually a Heroic Spirit, so it could only pull Saladin from the catalyst, but I'd find it surprising if Baldwin IV wasn't a Heroic Spirit. Maybe it did try Baldwin first, but Baldwin refused. Either war, I can understand why Saladin would be summoned: so long as the priest doesn't disparage the Islamic faith in front of him, I'd imagine Saladin can at least be… well, civil, with basically anyone."
"He did also come to the defense of his master's faith when you were mocking the Church…"
"Good eye; that too only reinforced the idea. Considering Saladin has now been summoned and gained some idea of the modern world, I could see him easily accepting the whole 'live and let live' idea we've adopted when it comes to religious beliefs …by and large, that is. If any champion of the Islamic faith was going to answer the summons of someone from the Catholic Church, in my mind it just had to be Saladin."
"…But wait. What about the assassins?"
"Ah, so you did remember" I grinned. "Yes, the assassins. Once I figured it was Saladin who was Rider, well, not only does it fit perfectly within the puzzle, I grew a lot more worried about the assassins under his command."
"Why? Did he have a famous group of assassins working under him?"
"No, not under him. With him. …Also against him, at first. But then they agreed that the Knights Templar were the bigger issue and began to work together. And famous… well, famous doesn't even begin to cover this group! This wasn't just any group of assassins; it was the group of assassins. Or rather, I should say, the Hashashins."
"Wait, you serious?!"
Sortiara suddenly bolted upright on the sofa.
"And here I thought you were asleep" I sighed, though I was smiling.
"I just didn't want to play your stupid games!"
"But I take it this means you know of them?"
"Of course I do" She shouted, before turning to face Johnathan. "Johnathan, they're the first recorded group of assassins in history! Remember what we were told?! The assassin class alone is a catalyst for them!"
"Oh, it's those guys" he nodded in understanding, before something seemed to dawn on him. "Oh; it's those guys… Fuck, that's bad, isn't it?"
"You think?!"
"Well, hold on now" I moved to regain control over my class. "While I do believe it is them, let me explain in full. The Hashashins were originally just as much at war with Saladin as they were with the Templars. The story goes that while Saladin was laying siege to their stronghold of Masyaf, one night the head of the Hashashins at the time, Rashid ad-Din Sinan, managed to sneak past all his guards and warning systems, get into his tent, and pin a note threatening to kill him if he didn't end the siege with a poisoned dagger to his bedside. This spooked Saladin so bad that he did, in fact, lift the siege. I don't blame him; I'd be spooked too. Some time afterwards though, Saladin approached Sinan with the offer of an alliance, so to say, to fight back against the Templars. Seeing the Templars as the bigger threat, Sinan agreed."
"So, what's your point here" Sortiara demanded.
"My point is this: while it is true that Sinan and Saladin worked together to fight against the Templars, hence why I believe he can call upon some assassins now in this war, recall how they were fighting. Do they seem like servants to you?"
"No, they're definitely not servants" Johnathan acknowledged.
"Right. Knowing that, I highly doubt then that Saladin has access to the best of the best of the group. So, like, we ain't gonna be seeing the founder Hassan-i Sabbah, or Sinan himself, or any of their top people; the ones who would be worthy of being Heroic Spirits, in my opinion. But a group is more than just the head; just one person or a few elites. They would have had dozens, if not hundreds, of acolytes or initiates and the like, and that is what I believe Saladin is able to enlist as aide. Scary, yes, but not as bad as it could be; mostly, they'll be scouts: eyes and ears. Not really meant for direct combat, as tonight should have demonstrated. Unless you want them to go after masters, that is, which, thankfully, Saladin seems to be very much against. That said, now I'm worried about the actual Assassin, because if Assassin turns out to be Hassan-i Sabbah, or Sinan, or the one who had a hundred different personalities, or-"
"Wait, there was one with a hundred different personalities" Sortiara raised an eyebrow.
"Again, so the story goes" I nodded. "History's first ever recorded case of what we now call multiple personality disorder was a top tier assassin in life. No kidding; must have been real easy to pretend to be someone else. Don't even want to know how that affects a Heroic Spirit as a servant… Shame I can't recall the name though."
I turned my attention back to Johnathan.
"But yeah, so the assassin piece fits as well. Thus, all the pieces fit, the puzzle is complete, and voila: Rider's true name is Saladin."
"…I see. So that's how you do it" Johnathan nodded slowly. "And you're doing this for all the servants?"
"Yup; brain is constantly evaluating and re-evaluating everything I can pick up about every servant I don't know the identity of yet. I'm doing this very same deductive process with Saber and Lancer right now."
Both Johnathan and Sortiara didn't seem to like the sound of that very much.
"Really though, both of you should be doing this as well" I sighed. "Don't get me wrong; I'll uphold my part of the deal and work on finding out the identity of Archer, Caster, and Assassin. But really, the fact you two are playing a game that uses people from history and legends, and didn't even bother to brush up on the biggest names, is utterly tragic. You both should be trying as hard as you can to win if you're going to play in the first place, and that means learning about all the aspects of the game, not just the parts you have direct control over. However, I believe that's enough for a first lecture, so I bid you two a good night."
"Wait, since when were we your students" Sortiara sounded indignant.
"Since the moment I realized how bad you both are when it comes to analysis and critical thinking" I grinned, grabbing my backpack and heading for the front door. "Don't worry though; by the time I'm done with the two of you, you'll both know how to properly play this game."
