CHAPTER 12

O'Brien's discovery about the location of the source seemed to be a major discovery, but Dax still couldn't quite figure out what it meant. So the probe was in the wrong place. There still were the safety systems to prevent detonation. How would moving the probe affect them? For that matter, how would moving the probe contribute to the explosion at all?

Dax set the issue aside for the time being. She had other things to do. She spoke to Lieutenant Lauren again, this time in the company of the rest of the probe team from Surveyor.

Dax learned very little. Surveyor's probe team remained baffled about what had happened. Team members used the word "impossible" frequently. They had no theories, not even any wild guesses, as to how it might have occurred; and they had no suggestions for any avenues of investigation.

But there was one development of some interest. The Surveyor probe team had recently been questioned at length by two of the Commissioners, named Fetterie and Nguyen.

"We told them that we didn't have any idea how the explosion occurred," said Lieutenant Lauren. "We told them basically what I told you before."

"They were interested in how it could've happened," piped up Lieutenant Terry Costello. "But they seemed to be even more interested in why it happened." Other members of Surveyor's probe team nodded in agreement with this remark.

Lauren picked up the point. "I got the clear impression that these two Commissioners were operating on the assumption that members of the Observer probe team had deliberately conspired to kill everyone aboard the ship." Again the other members of the probe team nodded in agreement. "They kept asking us about possible motivations or grievances. And they seemed to think that some people aboard Observer had come up with a plot to kill everyone, and they decided to carry it out in the Gamma Quadrant. There were lots of questions about the Gamma Quadrant." More nods from the probe team.

"It made no sense to me," remarked Lieutenant Kirk Rusk. "Even if there had been a conspiracy, it was impossible to carry it out."

"And what would be the point of doing it in the Gamma Quadrant?" muttered someone, but Dax couldn't see who had said it.

Costello spoke again: "They asked if we personally knew any of the people on Observer's probe team. I told them I knew Ginny Rogg; we had been classmates about four years ago. They were really interested that I knew her, and they asked me a whole bunch of questions about her: 'Did she say anything about going to the Gamma Quadrant?' 'Was she a happy person?' 'Did she have any enemies?' That type of thing. I told them that, as far as I knew, Ginny was super-smart, but basically a normal person."

Abruptly, the conversation changed, as the Surveyor probe team pressed Dax to reveal whether she had learned anything as to how the explosion had happened. Dax had decided not to share the discovery that the explosion had apparently originated at an unexpected location within the Bay, and she also felt it inappropriate to mention that all of members of Observer's crew were now dead.

The Surveyor probe team expressed disappointment that Dax could not enlighten them in any way. It was on that note that the conversation ended.

Dax then directed her attention to interviewing Lieutenant Camille Gaulle. Lieutenant Gaulle had been a member of Observer's probe team for over two years. About four months ago, she took family medical leave to help care for her husband. Gaulle and her husband currently resided on Starbase 12.

When Dax set up the meeting, she thought things might be delicate. That Gaulle had left space duty to care for her husband suggested that her husband's medical condition was serious. None of the information available to Dax disclosed the medical condition of Gaulle's husband, however, and Dax had no idea how well he might be doing, or even whether Gaulle could spare the time to answer questions.

At the appointed time, Dax opened a secure channel to Starbase 12. Gaulle's face appeared, and the display informed Dax that both sides of the communication were secure.

Dax identified herself, and confirmed Gaulle's identification. Dax explained that she had been assigned to investigate the circumstances surrounding an incident aboard the USS Observer.

"You have heard what happened to the Observer, I assume," Dax said.

"Yes."

"You were a member of the probe team aboard Observer until a few months ago."

Gaulle took a few moments before answering. "I was, yes."

"Let me extend to you my condolences on the losses of your shipmates."

"Thank you."

"And you were stationed on board Observer for a little over two years, is that right?"

Gaulle did not answer. Dax was about to repeat the question, when Gaulle spoke.

"I am sorry, Lieutenant, but I am not in any position to answer any questions."

"May I ask why?"

"All information about probe operations is highly confidential. Certainly you know that."

"I do, and I have Gold clearance."

"I don't care what clearance you claim to have. I cannot talk about probe operations aboard Observer. In case you didn't know, the penalties I face for talking to you are very severe. I won't put myself into a position where I might get into trouble. My husband needs me right now; I don't have time to deal with this sort of thing."

"If you like, I'll speak to Commissioner Young," Dax offered. "Perhaps she could assure you that there won't be any trouble."

"I don't care if you get the President of the Federation to talk to me. I won't take that risk."

And with that, Gaulle terminated the communication.

Dax reported the conversations to Sisko.

Sisko was not surprised to hear that some of the Commissioners were thinking along the lines that the explosion had been a deliberate act. The Commission itself had been responsible for evaluating and selecting Observer's probe team, and if that same probe team had willfully acted to kill over a hundred people, then the Commissioners themselves might be blamed for not being thorough in their evaluation and selection of the probe team.

And besides, he had to admit that there were some pretty good reasons to think that the explosion was caused deliberately.

Sisko was more interested in Gaulle's reaction to Dax's questioning. "Did any of the Surveyor people express this level of concern about the consequences of revealing confidential information?"

"Not really, no."

"Do you think Gaulle was trying to cover something up?"

Dax squinted. "Hard to say. She may simply have been, as she claimed, very cautious about talking to me. The legal consequences for breaking confidentiality are indeed serious, and she said she didn't want to risk being taken from her husband's side."

"I see."

"I offered to try to get Commissioner Young to give her authorization to speak, but Gaulle said that wouldn't change her mind."

Sisko loosed a brief chuckle. "I'm not sure Commissioner Young would give authorization, anyway. I spoke to the Commissioner about an hour ago. I asked again whether we might know the results of inspections of probe assembly facilities. She said that the Commission is satisfied that there were no manufacturing problems, and the reasons for that conclusion are classified. She also told me that the Commission is satisfied that there is no relevant evidence that was found on Surveyor, and that everything about Surveyor was classified. I asked about records of Observer missions. Classified. I said I wanted to see statistics bearing upon the performance of Observer. Classified. I thought I made a strong case, saying that it seems pretty likely that Observer did something on this mission that was different than what it had done on previous missions, so it would be helpful to know what had been done on previous missions. Still classified."

"She's obstructing us, stonewalling us."

Sisko made a face. "I don't think so. I think she's just overly cautious. Unlike Lieutenant Gaulle, Commissioner Young is not worried about punishment; she's more concerned that we'll lose the focus of the investigation, engage in 'fishing expeditions,' go off on tangents. But if we could make a stronger case that we needed some information, really needed it and it was essential to the focus of our investigation, then maybe she would find a way to let us have it."

"Did you tell her about what Chief O'Brien's explosion reconstruction showed?"

"Yes. She had no comment, except to say that O'Brien must be in error and that he probably did not know what he was doing."

"Is that Young talking, or Stoan?"

"Probably a little of both."

They smiled.

"Dax, I did receive some information from Young, and though it was sparse, it was informative. I asked for a working definition of a 'time-critical' mapping mission. She explained that mapping a gas giant takes usually between twenty and forty probes, depending on several factors, but mostly the planet's size and rate of rotation. These probes have to be launched and detonated fairly deep in the planet's atmosphere while the planet is undergoing a process called 'deep inversion.' If the planet is not undergoing deep inversion, the Upsilon Radiation generated by the probes does not capture any useful information. So, if there's a gas giant that you want to map, you have to wait for it to undergo deep inversion. When the deep inversion begins, that deep inversion can be detected with standard sensors, and a research ship, such as Observer or Surveyor, can be dispatched to map the gas giant. Are you with me so far?"

"Yes."

"Well, it turns out that not all gas giants go through deep inversion for the same duration. Some of them are in deep inversion for a month or longer. But for some, deep inversion begins and ends in a matter of days, or even hours. The time window for mapping some gas giants can be quite small. And when the time window is small, the mapping mission is considered to be 'time-critical.'"

"Okay, I'm following you."

"Most time-critical missions were assigned to Observer."

Dax nodded. "Because, compared to Surveyor, Observer was faster and more efficient."

"Right, or at least, that's what everyone thinks is right. Now here's what I think is the interesting part. Suppose you're aboard a mapping ship, and you are assigned to map a gas giant, and the mission is time-critical. Your window of opportunity is just a matter of days, but by the time you get there, your time window is down to a matter of hours. Now suppose that, due to the size of the planet you need to map, it will take thirty probes, at a minimum, to perform a complete mapping. So probes are launched, and detonated, and readings are taken. But the time window closes, and you've only got readings from, say, twenty-five probes. You can't get the full thirty readings you'd like to get. What do you suppose happens?"

"You have to go with incomplete data?" Dax guessed. "Or you have to wait for another deep inversion to finish getting your readings?"

"No. According to Commissioner Young, you have to discard all the data you've collected. Incomplete data is mathematically ambiguous and is effectively useless in predicting planetary behavior."

Dax was surprised. "Really?"

"The term officially used is an 'incomplete mapping,' but in reality, the mission is deemed to be a flat-out failure. So, as Young explained, it's certainly understandable that an incomplete mapping is a highly undesirable outcome for a mapping ship. Young also said that an incomplete mapping is generally seen as reflecting badly on the ship in general and the probe team in particular."

"Because they couldn't get the job done in time."

"Yeah." Sisko paused for a moment. "You know, it seemed odd to me that anyone would think that an incomplete mapping indicates poor performance. As best I can tell, incomplete mappings are often not the fault of the ship or her crew or her probe team."

"No?"

"No. If some of these unclassified reports are right, most incomplete mappings occur because the time window is tight, and because too many probes failed to prime. Typically, one out of eight probes fails to prime, but this is a long-term average. There is no way to prevent a probe from FTP'ing, and no way to assure that the probe will prime itself once launched."

"In other words, you can't simply assume that every eighth probe will be bad. In the long run, twelve and a half percent of probes FTP, but there is no way to know whether a particular probe will FTP."

"Right. It's the luck of the draw; there is no way to know whether a particular probe will FTP until you actually try to prime it. Now. Four years ago, on one mapping mission involving the Observer, thirty probes were to be deployed during a time-critical mission. That meant that on average three or four probes would be expected to FTP. During actual mapping operations, however, a surprising seven probes failed to prime, and this threw Observer way off her schedule."

"To the point that the window of opportunity closed and the mission was an incomplete mapping?"

"Exactly. Officially, no one has ever faulted the Observer for the incomplete mapping. How could they? Whether a probe fails to prime or not is always a matter of luck, and if your luck is bad, you'll get an FTP probe that accomplishes nothing but waste your time. Even so, there were subtle suggestions from various people in Starfleet that this incomplete mapping could have been avoided if Observer had been better at her job. Apparently this subtle criticism affected Observer's crew. I checked the Observer's logs, and they show something interesting. The logs don't talk about the mission, but they do note a plunge in morale following this incomplete mapping."

"But what could Observer have done differently?"

Sisko shrugged. "Nothing, as far as I can tell. For each of those seven probes that failed to prime, Observer had no choice: she had to send out the shuttlecraft to retrieve the probe and return it to the Locker before a new probe could be dispensed. And probe retrieval takes time."

"That's interesting," Dax said, "but does it help us with our investigation?"

"It might. On that mission four years ago, the Observer's time window was narrow: about 31 hours, if I remember correctly. On the mission to the Gamma Quadrant, the time window was also fairly tight: about 33 hours. That got me wondering, Dax, whether the Observer probe team felt rushed; they wanted to avoid the embarrassment of four years earlier. I got wondering whether the probe team cut corners in order to get all of the readings made within the narrow time window."

Dax bit her lip. "Cut corners? You mean compromised safety in the interest of doing the job faster?"

"Yes."

"But, how would the probe team cut corners? All the procedures for probe preparation and launch are carefully controlled. And how would bypassing the safety systems save any time? Seems to me it would cost them time to do it, assuming they could do it at all."

Sisko scowled. "Good points. We don't even know whether they were rushing things here, do we? That may be just one more intriguing-yet-unanswered question I'll have to put in my report."