CHAPTER 21
The conference began at 1330 hours. Sisko formally welcomed the members of the Commission to Deep Space Nine, once again. He introduced himself, once again. He once again introduced Bashir, Dax and O'Brien, who stood as they were identified. Sisko offered Commissioner Young the opportunity formally to introduce the members of the Commission, and she did so. Commissioner Fetterie was introduced first, followed by Commissioner Nguyen, then Commissioner Ott, and lastly, Mister Stoan. Each stood in turn. They reseated themselves in unison. For the record, these were the attendees of the briefing.
Sisko had everyone's full attention.
Sisko briefly recounted the events of USS Observer's voyage to the Gamma Quadrant, and her tragic return. He described in general terms what he had done to secure the ship and quarantine it, and to get treatment for survivors.
"I am saddened to say," Sisko said, "that all of the survivors have now perished. All of the crew of USS Observer is gone." He hoped that no further questions about the medical treatment of the survivors would be forthcoming.
After a short description of how most inhabitants of the station chose to leave, Sisko recounted that he and his officers had been tasked with investigating the cause of the incident.
"I stand before you today to announce our findings. Doctor Bashir did not participate in our technical investigation; otherwise, our findings are unanimous. Before announcing our findings, however, I wish to have it noted for the record that our findings are based upon the evidence that was actually available to us. We made numerous requests for additional evidence from the Commission, and most of these requests were denied. I mention this because, following my report, the Commission may have the opportunity to review evidence in its possession that was not available to us, and may therefore be able to support or to refute our findings."
Sisko expected the Commissioners to react unfavorably to what he'd just said. Instead, they were impassive, waiting for what he was about to say next.
"It is our unanimous conclusion that the explosion of USS Observer was an accident, in that the explosion was unintended by all members of the crew in general and the probe team in particular."
That got a reaction from all of the Commissioners except Young, who adjusted their postures upon hearing it. Even Stoan cocked his head to hear these words.
"That said," Sisko continued, "it is our unanimous conclusion that the probe team intentionally committed certain actions that contributed to causing the explosion, though the probe team did not, I repeat, did not intend to cause the explosion."
More adjustments to posture.
"I shall now explain how our investigating team came to these conclusions."
"Commander Sisko," Stoan interrupted. "Do not take offense, but the conclusion just announced is patently unreasonable and inconsistent with itself. Officers are presumed to intend the consequences of their conscious acts. Yet your people's conclusion, if I understand it correctly, is that the probe team officers committed conscious acts that caused the explosion, but did not intend to cause the explosion. Your proffered conclusion is therefore inherently contradictory." Stoan paused, presumably for effect, and added, "Have I explained sufficiently to you why your conclusion is inherently contradictory?"
Sisko summoned up as much confidence as he could, and looked directly at Stoan. Sisko knew that Stoan was the member of the Commission who would be the most difficult one to convince. If Sisko conveyed an air of uncertainty, Stoan would cross-examine him mercilessly, and Sisko's credibility would probably be in tatters. Sisko was as sure of his conclusions as he could be, and he needed to convey this certainty by his demeanor. "You do understand our conclusions correctly, Commissioner Stoan."
"Use the honorific 'Mister' when addressing me, Commander."
Sisko was momentarily embarrassed at having forgotten Stoan's views about personal titles, but Sisko recovered quickly. "Apologies, Mister Stoan. Our conclusion is not contradictory, Mister Stoan. It is the conclusion that is best supported by the evidence available to us. It is, furthermore, eminently logical." Sisko stressed the last word. "I pledge to you, when all is said and done, you will see it is logical."
Stoan sat silent for a moment. "Explain the conclusion," he said simply.
"Yes, sir. Let us begin with some basics. All evidence shows that the explosion occurred inside the Probe Preparation Bay. All evidence indicates that the probe team in the Bay was preparing a probe for launch when the explosion occurred. Since there are eleven probes missing from the Locker, we believe that the probe that exploded was the eleventh in the series."
Stoan looked as though he might interrupt, but he did not.
"Because a probe was being prepared for launch," Sisko continued, "most of the safety features preventing detonation had been removed or deactivated, or were in the process of being removed or deactivated. These actions taken in preparation were routine, but they were also intentional, and were intended to permit the probe to detonate. They were not, however, intended to cause the probe to detonate inside the Bay."
Again Stoan looked as though he might interrupt, yet he kept his peace for the moment.
Sisko promptly moved on. "It is reasonable to conclude that there came a time at which the probe was nearly ready for launch. At that time, there were only a handful of measures that prevented the probe from detonating. Those measures are: First, the gravitational gradient system. The gravitational gradient system prevents detonation unless the probe is in the presence of gravitational gradients indicative of a gas giant. Second, the environment assessment system, which prevents detonation unless the probe is subject to the atmosphere, temperature and pressure of a gas giant. Third, the life detection system prevents the probe from exploding in the presence of higher life forms. Fourth, there must be given a coded authorization to detonate issued by the Probe Control Station. And fifth, there must be an explicit command to detonate issued by the Probe Control Station. Unless these five measures are addressed, the probe will not detonate."
Sisko paused at this point to take a sip of water. He was not thirsty, but he wanted to assess the reaction of the Commission. He had worried, perhaps unreasonably, that there might be additional safety features that had been kept secret, or that he and his team had somehow overlooked. The Commission seemed to agree with his analysis so far, and Sisko felt a measure of relief.
He went on. "We know that, in the case of USS Surveyor and likely in the case of USS Observer as well, one of these measures is routinely made ineffective prior to launch. The coded authorization to detonate is routinely given to the probe prior to launch, while it is still aboard the vessel."
Commissioner Ott stirred. "No, that can't be right! The authorization is supposed to be given after launch, not before!"
Commissioner Nguyen answered the objection. "Carl, we've talked about this, remember? The authorization can be given at any time, at the discretion of Probe Control. Once launch begins, Probe Control has its hands full. So we've said it is permissible to enter the authorization code prior to launch."
"We did?"
"Yes! Good grief, we spent days arguing about it!"
"The point is, Commissioners," Sisko broke in, while Ott and Nguyen continued to bicker, "that the authorization could be given by the Probe Control Station at any time. Regardless of when they ought to issue the coded authorization, they can issue it prior to launch."
"Commander Sisko is correct," Stoan said simply, and loudly. The quarrel between the two Commissioners ended at once.
Sisko nodded to Stoan, and went on. "It is also correct, is it not, that a command to detonate can also be given at any time, at the discretion of the Probe Control Station?" Sisko looked directly at Stoan. "That command to detonate could be given while the probe was still aboard the vessel, could it not?"
Stoan spoke slowly. "That is correct. Once coded authorization is given, it is within the discretion of the probe team to order detonation at any time, even if the probe is still aboard the vessel."
"You're saying they ordered the probe to blow up while it was still aboard the ship?!" objected Commissioner Ott.
Stoan turned to Ott. "Giving such a command would not cause detonation," Stoan replied sternly. "The other systems would prevent not only detonation, but would also prevent priming. Giving the command would be a totally futile and unreasonable action."
"But why would anyone do that?" Commissioner Ott objected. "Were they mad?" Commissioner Fetterie nodded, apparently wanting to know the same thing.
"I believe," Stoan announced with a note of imperiousness, "that Commander Sisko will be addressing the question of 'why' in due course." Stoan faced Sisko, and though his words were directed to the other Commissioners, Stoan fixed his gaze squarely on Sisko. "And since Commander Sisko has assured us that his conclusions are based upon logic, it is unlikely that madness will play a part."
Sisko nodded. "Yes, I will be coming to 'why.' But first, as Mister Stoan has already reminded us, if authorization had been given and if a command to detonate had also been given, there three safety systems that stand in the way of detonation: gravity, environment, and life." He took a breath. "We now know that, it is possible to reduce that number. We know that the gravitational gradient system can be deactivated by the probe team in the Bay."
"We know that?" This time it was Commissioner Young.
"Yes, we know it. Mister O'Brien can show you a demonstration, if you like. Some ordinary equipment, such as some models of a geologist's tricorder, can be programmed to emit a graviton signal that will fool the gravitational sensor into thinking it is proximate to a gas giant. Once the gravitational safety is deactivated, it remains deactivated for at least forty seconds. So we are down now to two safety systems."
Sisko paused, because he expected that what he might say next would provoke a reaction. "We have further learned that it is possible to trick the environmental sensor, causing the environment assessment system to be deactivated as well. This leaves only one safety system in place."
A reaction did indeed occur, but it was a surprisingly quiet reaction. The Commissioners looked at each other as if to see what the others would do. Commissioner Ott began muttering to himself, but no one else said anything aloud.
"Once again, Mister O'Brien can give you a demonstration showing how it can be done," Sisko said, "and it can be done with instruments that Observer had in its own Probe Preparation Bay. I should explain how we came to know this. We had discovered that the Observer's Probe Preparation Bay had been modified approximately three years ago. A new scanning apparatus was installed, and the new scanning apparatus included a wand-type active scanning emitter bank. This emitter bank is an instrument that can be used to generate a signal that will cause the environmental sensor to sense that it is in the environment of a gas giant. Once the environmental safety system is deactivated, only the life safety system is there to keep the probe from exploding."
Commissioner Ott could no longer keep his peace. "I do not understand. Are you saying that the probe team deactivated one automatic safety system after another? You're not merely saying that they could have deactivated these safety systems, but that they actually did deactivate them?! And once the systems were deactivated, the people in the Bay asked Probe Control to give the command to explode the probe while it was still aboard?"
"We believe that is what happened, yes."
"Then explain how they deactivated the life detection safety system!" Stoan demanded.
"And while you're at it," Commissioner Young added, "explain how all of this adds up to being an accident!" Several Commissioners voiced approval of Young's remark. "And explain why, after hundreds of successful mapping missions, the crew of Observer just decided to start deactivating safety systems while on a mapping mission in the Gamma Quadrant!" Once again, other Commissioners offered shouts indicating that they too wanted to know the answer to Young's questions.
Sisko raised his hand to indicate that, once the Commissioners quieted down, he was ready to answer. He stood tall and resolute. He had known questions like this would be coming, so he was not intimidated by their tone.
"There is an incorrect assumption being made here," Sisko said when he has the Commissioners' attention once again. "Let us now address it. It is being assumed that the probe team of USS Observer followed a different or irregular procedure during its mission in the Gamma Quadrant, and because Observer followed a different procedure, the explosion occurred. I submit that they didn't follow a different procedure at all." Sisko put an extra edge into his voice. "I submit that they followed the same procedure that they had been following for the past three years!"
Silence.
"I submit to you that for the past three years, USS Observer, repeatedly and routinely, had been deactivating its probe safety systems when missions were time-critical."
Stunned silence.
Sisko motioned to Dax. "Lieutenant Jadzia Dax will discuss some of the evidence that led us to that conclusion. Lieutenant?"
As Dax rose, a page of tabulated data appeared on a large display behind the lectern.
"These statistics pertain to Observer's time-critical missions in the three years prior to Observer's trip to the Gamma Quadrant," Dax began. "There have been eighty-nine time-critical missions. This number here indicates the duration of the time window in which Observer had to operate, rounded up to the nearest hour. The longest time window is forty-nine hours and as shortest is nineteen hours. This number here indicates the number of probes needed to generate a complete mapping, ranging from eighteen to forty-two."
"I'd also like you to note," interrupted Sisko, "that every single one of these time-critical missions, except one, was completed successfully. Eighty-eight full, complete mappings under time-critical conditions: that is an outstanding achievement, and it led to Observer earning and enjoying a reputation as an excellent mapping ship."
Sisko nodded to Dax, who continued. "Although we do not have detailed data for every mission, we understand that a typical probe deployment takes about three–quarters of an hour. Forty-five minutes, at a minimum. That is, it takes at least forty-five minutes to get the probe from the Locker, prepare it, launch it, guide the probe to where it needs to be, detonate it, and take readings from it."
Some of the Commissioners nodded their heads.
Dax pointed to the data on display. "Look at this mission as an example. The time window is 26 hours long. To do a complete mapping for this particular mission, 32 probes would need to be deployed. As a matter of simple mathematics, it would take about 24 hours, at a minimum, to complete this mapping. 24 hours is, of course, within the time window of 26 hours. But it also assumes that everything proceeds rapidly and smoothly and without interruption and," she paused, "without problems."
Sisko stole a look at Stoan. His expression had subtly changed. To Sisko, his expression was one of mild astonishment. Stoan sees it, Sisko thought. Or at least, he's starting to see it.
"We know that things don't always go all right," Dax said. "We know that about one out of every eight probes fails to detonate, because it fails to prime. In a mission deploying 32 probes, one might expect four FTP's, although it might be fewer than that, or it might be more. And when there is an FTP, the probe has to be retrieved by a shuttlecraft, returned to the ship and then returned to the Locker. We do not have complete data about particular FTP's on particular missions, but we have estimated that when a probe FTP's, it takes at least one point five hours to prep it, launch it, position it, retrieve it, and return it to the Locker."
Some of the Commissioners are seeing it now, Sisko thought. They haven't put the pieces together, but they're seeing it.
Commissioner Ott muttered, "Usually takes about two hours."
Dax pointed to the information on the display again. "So here, the time window is 26 hours. You can do the mapping in 24 hours, if there are no FTP's. But if there are, say, four FTP's, it will take, at a minimum, 30 hours to complete the mapping. Not enough time. If you got only three FTP's, that would take 28-and-a-half hours. Not enough time."
Dax let her audience do the math in case of only two FTP's. Still not enough time.
"Maybe they caught a break," Commissioner Young said. "You never know when you're going to get an FTP. Maybe instead of four FTP's, they got only one. Then they could have completed the mapping mission within the time window."
"That is possible," Dax admitted. "We do not know how many FTP's occurred on each mission."
"Though perhaps you do," Sisko added, looking at Young.
Dax went on. "Maybe luck played a role. But that may mean that the Observer was very lucky on several occasions. These forty-four missions here," Dax highlighted some of the data on the display, "also have very short time windows and lots of probes to deploy. An expected number of FTP's would cause each of these missions to result in incomplete mappings, or would cause the mappings to be completed just in the nick of time, assuming that a larger-than-expected number of FTP's did not occur. Yet Observer completed all of these mappings successfully."
"Only one incomplete mapping in the past three years," Sisko reminded everyone.
"When we saw these statistics," Dax said, "we wondered how Observer could make its mappings within the allotted times, and how it could do it consistently. We first assumed that the probe teams were simply very efficient. But mere efficiency cannot save that much time."
Some of the Commissioners nodded their heads.
"And so we asked ourselves, 'How could they save time? What are the most time-consuming parts of taking a mapping? And can we get rid of them or streamline them?' And we found that the most time-wasting part of mapping is dealing with FTP's. Preparing the probe and then having it fail to prime, and then having to go out and get the probe; those activities are significant time-wasters. And it happens after about twelve-and-a-half percent of all launches. It would save a lot of time if you didn't have to deal with probes that wouldn't prime."
"That expense of time is unavoidable," Stoan objected. "On average, twelve point five percent of all cores will not prime. That is a consequence of physical laws. The Observer crew could not eliminate failures to prime, nor could they force a probe to prime, nor could they reduce the twelve point five percent rate. If you are suggesting otherwise, it would be the same as saying the Observer crew could change physical laws."
"No, they could not change physical laws," said Sisko. "But they could determine whether a probe would successfully prime before they launched it. That is what we think they did."
Stoan did not see the logic just yet. "Explain."
Sisko explained. "We think that, on time-critical missions, the probe team tried to prime every probe before launch. If a probe failed to prime, it was returned to the Locker immediately and another probe was immediately withdrawn from the Locker. But if the probe successfully primed, it was launched. A primed probe would stay primed at least long enough so that it could be maneuvered into position in the planet's atmosphere, and when the order to detonate was given a second time, with all of the safeties deactivated, the probe was certain not to be an FTP. The result was: no more wasted time fetching FTP probes with a shuttlecraft. Indeed, aboard Observer, the officer whose post should have been in the fetching shuttlecraft was away from his post, perhaps suggesting that he knew shuttlecraft retrieval services would not be needed."
Sisko took a deep breath.
"The only way to get a probe to prime is to deactivate most of its safety systems and command it to detonate. The sequence followed by the Observer probe team therefore likely was this: the gravitational system was deactivated, then the environmental system. Then the officers in the Bay contacted the Probe Control Station, which issued the authorization code and the command to detonate. At this point, no safety systems prevented priming, so the probe did one of two things: it either FTP'ed or it primed itself. Only if it primed itself, would it be launched."
Sisko took another deep breath.
"Mister Stoan, you asked earlier for an explanation as to how the probe team deactivated the life detection safety system. The evidence suggests that they did not deactivate the life detection safety system, and that they never intended to deactivate it. They intended, rather, that the life detection safety system would keep them alive, after Probe Control commanded the probe to detonate. On all previous occasions, the life detection safety system did keep them alive. But on this one occasion in the Gamma Quadrant, it did not. The fact that Observer happened to be in the Gamma Quadrant had nothing to do with it; the same thing could just as easily have happened in the Alpha Quadrant."
The room was silent.
"The life detection safety system cannot be tampered with or bypassed. It is said to be the most reliable safety system, and it is touted as being able to prevent an erroneous explosion up to one second before actual detonation. The probe team may well have believed that they could do what they did and that the life detection safety system would prevent detonation. The probe team may well have believed that the life detection safety system would protect them. Such a belief would have been flawed."
Sisko summed up. "The evidence shows that the probe team never intended to cause an on-board detonation. There is a complete absence of evidence to the contrary: we have found no evidence whatsoever of any malicious motive. To the contrary, the evidence indicates that, from the standpoint of the probe team, the detonation was unintended. This incident was, therefore, an accident."
Eventually Commissioner Young spoke. "Because the life detection safety system failed?"
"That is what the evidence indicates, yes. We had originally suspected that the life sensor had failed. But the evidence is that the life sensor did not fail. We infer, rather, that the mechanical apparatus intended to be interposed between the striker and the core failed. As for precisely how it failed, that we cannot say, as it would require information beyond our security clearances."
Sisko nodded to O'Brien, to ask him to join Sisko and Dax at the front of the room. O'Brien did so.
Sisko stood side-by-side with Dax and O'Brien. "I expect you may have questions. My team and I stand ready to answer them."
Sisko could see all of the other Commissioners turning in Stoan's direction. They were agitated, but asked nothing. They wanted to hear what Stoan would say.
Stoan spoke evenly. "Commander Sisko, you promised us that the explanation you would put forward would be logical. I do not find the explanation to be without faults, and it is based upon Human motivations and proclivities, but I do find it to be mostly logical."
Sisko nodded but said nothing. He knew that Stoan was not yet finished, and that he was about to ask about the 'faults.' His questions, Sisko knew, were going to be difficult.
"Commander," Stoan said, "You have talked about what the evidence shows. May I first point out that nearly all of the evidence in Observer's Probe Preparation Bay has been destroyed, meaning that most physical evidence may have been permanently lost. Observer's logs, as they pertain to probes, were also destroyed. Observer's crew is dead. You have stated, correctly, that there is evidence indicating that what you suggest to have occurred may have occurred. I emphasize, 'may have occurred.'"
Here it comes, Sisko thought.
"Is there any evidence that what you say occurred actually did occur?"
Sisko had been prepared for this question.
"Mister Stoan, we have evidence from which we can infer that both the coded authorization and the command to detonate were given while the probe was in the Bay."
"That is a reasonable inference," Stoan agreed, "since the probe could not detonate unless they were given."
"Further, we have evidence that Observer had the means to bypass the gravitational and environmental safeties. In the case of an instrument to deactivate the environmental safety, the evidence shows that Observer had such an instrument inside its Probe Preparation Bay."
"That appears to be the case," Stoan conceded. "My question remains unanswered, however. The statistical figures to which your Lieutenant Dax referred, they may suggest the possibility of scenario you have laid out, but they do not affirmatively establish it."
"That may be correct," Sisko agreed. "But I believe the Commission is in possession of evidence, or can come into possession of evidence, that will support, or falsify, the model of events as we have reconstructed them. I therefore offer to you the following considerations."
Stoan was listening. So were the other Commissioners.
"First," Sisko said. "There is a former probe team member from the Observer, Lieutenant Camille Gaulle, who currently resides at Starbase 12. She may have first-hand knowledge as to what procedures were applied by Observer's probe team on past time-critical missions. She refused to answer our questions. She might be agreeable to answering questions from you."
The Commissioners all looked at Stoan. Stoan nodded to Sisko, but said nothing.
"Second. The Commission is undoubtedly in possession of more data than we had; the data may support or refute what we have set forth today. You may know about Observer's missions: number of FTP's per mission, number of shuttle retrievals, average time for probe preparation, and so forth. You further have comparable information with respect to Surveyor."
Stoan nodded again.
"Third. You will also, we assume, be able to open Observer's Probe Preparation Bay and make a more detailed examination than we were able to do. The information you have or obtain may tend to confirm or refute our reconstruction of the events."
Stoan nodded yet again.
"Fourth. We have reason to believe that the eleventh probe exploded. Now, we have no way of finding out precisely what probe was eleventh in the sequence, but maybe you can. And you can then check its manufacturing and testing and service records. Those records might reveal something."
"You are correct in part," Stoan said. "Based upon the sensor sweep information you supplied to us, we were able to identify which was the probe that was most recently removed from the Locker, and almost certainly that was the probe that detonated. And, in fact, we have already reviewed that probe's manufacture and assembly records. They were all in order. There were no defects in manufacture or assembly."
"Have you checked that probe's service record?"
Stoan hesitated. "Yes."
"My prediction," O'Brien jumped in, "for what it is worth, is that you will find that the probe that exploded on board may have previously FTP'ed on an earlier time-critical mission."
Stoan's eyebrows lifted. "Why, Mister O'Brien?"
"Because if the barrier interposed between the striker and the core were similar to the flexible curtain-like barriers used in emergency systems throughout the Federation, in some airlocks and hatchways and so forth, that material can become brittle when exposed to harsh conditions. Brittleness can be caused by many kinds of intense radiation, but it can also be caused by electromagnetic shear, such as might be caused by the shaped electromagnetic fields one might use when priming a probe."
"These barriers are not subjected to the most intense parts of the electromagnetic field," Stoan protested, but his protest faded when he put the pieces together. "But that would be true only under routine operating conditions, where the barrier is withdrawn prior to priming. If your team's scenario is correct, however, the Observer probe team was priming its probes inside the Bay, with the barrier of each probe adjacent to the core."
O'Brien nodded. "Yes, sir. And if I'm right that the probe FTP'ed previously on a time-critical mission, then this particular probe may have received a double-dose of electromagnetic shear: once at an earlier time when the Observer probe team tried to prime it in the Bay, and it FTP'ed; and a second time moments before the explosion, when the Observer probe team tried to prime it again in the Bay. That double-dose may have weakened the barrier even further."
Stoan stood mute for several seconds, then said, "Intriguing, quite remarkable. Well done."
"But I'm just guessing, sir," O'Brien cautioned. "I'm assuming that the probe's barrier shares many of the attributes of other flexible curtain-like barriers. And I'm assuming that the electromagnetic field strength is high enough to cause damage. But I don't know those things for a fact; that knowledge is above my security clearance."
"I will look into it." Stoan seemed as though he might ask a follow-up question, but did not. Instead, he said, "I will look into all of these things."
The other Commissioners seemed eager to discuss the findings among themselves. They had no questions for Sisko and his investigative team. They seemed to be more interested in discussing the case among themselves and examining the evidence in their possession to see whether what Sisko had described could really have occurred.
Stoan had fallen silent. His mind was formulating ideas for testing Sisko's hypothesis.
Seeing that, Commissioner Young stepped up to shake Sisko's hand. "Thank you, Commander, and thanks to your team. Please keep yourselves available to answer the Commission's questions, should we have any. Your report was interesting. You have given us many things to consider. We will take all of your team's reports under advisement."