A/N: This is less a plot hole, more of a "What if?"

Chapter 24: Sirius Black's Escape

The atmosphere in the Auror Office was so thick you could have cut it with a knife, on the night that Sirius Black escaped from Azkaban. The Aurors were frantic, trying to determine Black's likely behaviour and narrow down a search area, not that they had much to go on. But retired Auror Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody did not care about tension. His paranoid mind, honed by decades of thinking as Dark wizards did, was once again employed in that task, as the Office had begged him to return on a temporary basis to help in the recapture of Azkaban's first escapee.

Moody sat at a desk in the Office, writing down the facts of the case as he considered them.

Fact One: Azkaban prisoners did not have possession of their wands.

Fact Two: It was impossible to Apparate into or out of the prison.

Fact Three: Prolonged exposure to Dementors without the guarding effect of a Patronus sapped the mind of the exposed, reducing them to a lethargic state in which they were barely capable of rational thought.

Fact Four: There were types of magic which one did not require their wand to perform.

Fact Five: Of these, only two could reduce the effect a Dementor had on one: Occlumency, and being in one's animal form, if one was an Animagus.

Fact Six: Even if Black was an Occlumens, he could not have escaped without assistance.

Fact Seven: Azkaban reported an escape, not an intrusion-and-escape, so Black did not have assistance.

Deduction One: Black is an Animagus, and takes the form of something of a size that can fit between the bars of an Azkaban cell.

Query: Based on Deduction One, why has Black waited twelve years before escaping?

Hypothesis One: Black has learned something that motivated his escape.

Moody paused in his deductions to grab his copies of the last week's worth of the Daily Prophet, and write down what he had come up with so far. He quickly parsed through the newspapers, his magical eye passing over them and seeing through each page to read the next one. He was aggravated to find nothing conclusive, so he decided to compile a profile of what he knew of Black.

Sirius Orion Black, son of Orion and Walburga Black. Began Hogwarts in 1971, sorted into Gryffindor. Known associates from that time: James Potter, Peter Pettigrew, Remus Lupin… Moody's train of thought started down another track, gathering speed.

Fact Eight: The Werewolf Registry holds a record of Remus Lupin, bitten at age five by Fenrir Greyback.

Fact Nine: Remus Lupin was nicknamed "Moony" by his associates at Hogwarts.

Deduction Two: Lupin's associates called him "Moony" because they knew he was a werewolf.

Hypothesis Two: Based on their friendship, Lupin's associates became Animagi in order to safely support him during his transformations.

Fact Ten: Sirius Black's nickname was "Padfoot", James Potter's was "Prongs", and Peter Pettigrew "Wormtail".

Deduction Three: Black's Animagus form is some kind of carnivore (padded feet), James Potter's was something with horns, and Peter Pettigrew's was either a rat or mouse, as rats and mice both have tails that could be said to resemble worms.

Moody's thoughts changed track yet again. He knew he was onto something, and what ever it was, he was sure it was going to be big.

Fact Eleven: While at Hogwarts, Black and his associates had a reputation as pranksters.

Fact Twelve: It is believed, but not proven, that Black was the Secret Keeper for James and Lily Potter. Black is also recorded as being Harry Potter's godfather.

Hypothesis Three: Based on Facts Eleven and Twelve, Black was NOT the Secret Keeper for the Potters, as Black would most likely consider it a prank on everyone to be thought the Secret Keeper, when in fact he was not.

Fact Thirteen: After the death of the Potters, Black confronted Pettigrew. At the end of the confrontation, Pettigrew was believed dead, as only a finger was found of his remains.

Fact Fourteen: Prior to his escape, Black was heard repeatedly muttering "He's at Hogwarts".

Deduction Four: Referring to Hypothesis One, Black's escape was motivated by learning that "He" was at Hogwarts.

Moody's electric blue eye snapped back to the pile of Daily Prophets, making a connection. On the front page of the Wednesday issue was a picture of Arthur Weasley and his family in Egypt, the article detailing that they had won the Daily Prophet Grand Prize Galleon Draw. On the shoulder of the youngest boy was a rat. The rat was missing a toe.

Fact Fifteen: Significant injuries such as loss of digits or limbs carry over to an Animagus' animal form.

Fact Sixteen: The youngest Weasley boy, as shown in the picture in the Prophet, owns a rat. The boy could be said to be "at" Hogwarts.

FINAL DEDUCTIONS AND HYPOTHESIS: Pettigrew is not dead. At the confrontation between him and Black on Halloween night 1981, he faked his death and has since been living in hiding as a rat. Black has escaped because he has learned where Pettigrew may be found. Based on the confrontation, it is likely that it was in fact Pettigrew that was the Potters' Secret Keeper.

ACTION TO BE TAKEN: When the Weasley family arrive back in Britain, seize the rat – fabricating an excuse – and perform the Homorphus Charm upon it. If it is found to be Pettigrew, take him into custody for interrogation, and disseminate that such has occurred, entreating Black to turn himself in, so that the truth may be exposed.

Throwing down his quill and picking up the parchment in one movement, Moody rose from his desk and clomped his way to the office of Amelia Bones, the head of the Department for Magical Law Enforcement. Something this significant deserved to be brought to her with all haste. There were days when he really cursed his wooden leg. He hated it on a low, simmering level most of the time, but on the rare occasions when he needed a turn of speed that it prevented him attaining – those were the times he cursed it.

"Amelia," he barked as he opened her office door, "you wanted my help. You've had it." He threw the list of facts, hypotheses, and deductions on her desk. "Have a read and let me know how it goes," he said gruffly, turning around to leave. "I'm going back to my retirement." Stunned, Amelia Bones picked up the list, and as she read, her eyes widened. "If this is all true, Black is innocent," she thought to herself. "The Ministry'll take a blow for sure, keeping an innocent man in Azkaban for twelve years."

A couple of weeks later, the British public, wizarding and Muggle, were surprised to learn that new evidence had come to light which proved that "escaped murderer" Sirius Black was in fact innocent of the crime for which he had been incarcerated. They weren't informed of what the evidence was, save for the fact that the principle supposed victim, Peter Pettigrew, had been found alive.