Game of Thrones: Season 5, Episode 7.

My political analysis continued:

Even before the wildfire officially hit the Fan for Tommen, he was starting to snap.

Previously, I have explained why for Tommen to react rashly would be a fatal move. Now, I will go into how now is the time to act- at least for a short window.

Finally, we get to see Tommen's thoughts, and they're not pretty. He bounces from wringing his hands in the air about his helplessness, to suddenly declaring that he will use his army and put the Sparrows to the sword ( Even Cersei, who engineered the entire thing, has the sense to tell him that the very people he hopes to rescue would undoubtedly be killed in retaliation).

And then we are treated to a reminder that Tommen is still in fact a child, when he meekly listens to his mother explain that she will burn entire cities to the ground to keep him safe. ( She's learned nothing from Joffery).

I intend to discuss the situation before Cersei's eventual arrest, and how her arrest changes everything.

As of the end of the last episode, both Loras and Margery are imprisoned in the Sept of Baelor, and the High Sparrow is not being diplomatic. Ollenna Tyrell, the Queen of Thorns, attempts to negotiate with the High Sparrow with both the carrot and the stick.

I am going to briefly sum up why her initial offers/threats don't work. She initially offers gold, but the idea of any noble house negotiatingin such a way with rebellious subjects, is ludicrous, unless your name is Tytos. No surprise the High Sparrow sees through that ransom offer, and I suspect that Olenna's real motive was to find out how his mind worked, rather than to actually attempt ransom.

As to withdrawing food supplies, if the High Sparrow hadn't considered that earlier on, he's not going to back down over it now. Don't forget, these are the very same people who blocked Tommen at the steps of the Sept, and proved that they would sooner engage his guards than allow him to enter the Sept without their express permission.

He and his followers are blinded by their interpretation of the faith, and refuse to see reason beyond their narrow minded angle on the world. His reply that ' you are the few, we are the many', comes to prove this, and as he reveals later, he's willing to tear Westeros apart- 'strip it down to purity'- proves that the Faith Militant does not listen to reason and will not, ever, back down voluntarily.

If they considered reason and logic, they never would have gone this far.

While Tommen is wringing his hands, Ollenna is conspiring to undermine the Faith Militant's trial with Littlefinger's help. I imagine Olyvar is about to suffer a fate similar to his predecessor Ros.

Oddly enough, none of them are considering a very important element, ( one that will suddenly occur to Cersei any episode now): There are two ways to determine guilt and innocence: A Legal Trial- in which the Faith will preside over- or a Trial by Combat, which remain the rights of both Margery and Loras.

In my opinion, a legal Trial is out of the question. Loras is being tried for homosexuality- which is true. Margery is being tried for providing false testimony- in which she was caught red handed in ( The circumstances of her arrest are entirely different in the books, but that's another topic).

In a court run by religious fanatics, never count on Justice being done. As we saw with Tyrion's mock trial the previous season, in this universe, if the people in the right positions want you found guilty bad enough, you will be found guilty.

So a trial by combat is the only other option.

Finding a champion is not too difficult. The Tyrells would make sure that their blood had the best chance of coming out victorious. Loras might be his own champion, ( and maybe Margery's) if the Faith allows it, and if he hasn't lost too much of his strength. Littlefinger might also be helpful if/when he decides the Faith are too much of a threat to his personal interests. He might send for a knight from the Vale. And that's not considering Dr Qyburn's FrankenGregor Experiment.

Tommen is right on one aspect: the Faith Militant cannot be tolerated. They have to be stopped now, before they grow to become the problem they were to the Targaryans. But he has to get Margery and Loras out of harm's way first. And the best/only way to do that for sure is to demand a trial by combat for both of them. I don't know who the Faith's champion will be, but I wouldn't be too worried.

So this is how it should go: the Trial by Battle ensues. If Tommen's champion(s) win, then he has his hostages back, and the way is paved for part two: take a large force of soldiers- several hundred or more- all infantry- and surround the Sept of Baelor, and order the High Sparrow's arrest- for terrorizing Kingslanding and defiling the Holy Faith with his extremist views. ( It's critical that the soldiers guard their backs from possible reprisal by the Smallfolk. ) and the Sparrows themselves are an ill-trained fighting force.

Take control of the Sept. Capture the High Sparrow- don't kill him, and don't execute him. Send him to the Wall- he won't be useful to the Watch, but the gesture of mercy and justice will be appreciated in Kingslanding. Then disband the Faith Militant, and resume Maegor's laws forbidding them to take up arms. Sooner or later, the people will accept it. If not, well, Winter is coming. Pretty soon, everyone will have more problems than each other. Come Spring, the whole thing will be part of the half-forgotten past. ( Not taking external forces into account).

Now, if the Faith's champion triumphs, then a contingency plan is essential, for Tommen's soldiers to break through the captors and seize Loras and Margery while they are still out in the open. In fact, Plan B should go into affect the moment their champion dies, while the Faith are distracted. Then, when everyone is safe in the Red Keep, wait out the storm, and then launch the coordinated assault on the Sept as detailed above.

That's what Tommen's options were before his mother's arrest. But Cersei's arrest changes everything.

For one thing, the High Sparrow is not logical, but he is clever. It's apparent that he knew of Cersei's hidden past all along, and simply played nice while she was handing him everything he needed. Now, he is free to nail her and chalk up his list of imprisoned royal family members to three.

But Cersei's crimes are completely different from the Tyrells. She inserted bastards onto the Iron Throne, born of incest, no less. In keeping them, she helped start a war that resulted in the deaths of thousands. On top of it all, she arranged for her husband Robert to die.

Tommen absolutely cannot allow his mother's crimes to go public, or he'll be off the Throne before Visereys can say 'Golden Crown'. But now his hands are tied- again.

Now he has three hostages to free, not two. And this time, the Faith Militant has the very person they'd been gunning for since day 1. They won't let her go so easily, not without humiliating her first. Which means that even if Margery and Loras are freed, Tommen will have to tolerate the Faith for a while longer, while they take their time with Cersei's trial. Which means that his position will be gradually weakened because he is forced to do nothing, whilst the Faith Militant's strenght only increases drastically, because they are free to hold judgement to the formerly most powerful person in KingsLanding, ( and incidentally, is the greatest sinner of all).

Now, Tommen is powerless once again. Only time will tell the further fates of the three captives and what happens to Kingslanding, now that the political heart has been ripped out of the city, and replaced by the extremist Faith Militant Movement.