Chapter Five
Saturday morning found Jade and Sapphire at the recently finished conference center in the small town that supported the Mt. Trollamar Observatory. Besides Dr. McTroll, there were several other astronomers there. The turnout of reporters was fairly small, though it was being televised on the Sciences Channel.
Standing in the wings of the stage, Dr. McTroll briefed them on the latest data.
"The comet will be lost in the daylight in another month, and will reach perihelion another month after that. We'll have telescopes waiting to pick it up as soon as possible after that," he told them.
Sapphire nodded. Jade had been tutoring her on astronomy, and she had learned many terms. "Perihelion" meant the closest point to the sun in an orbit.
"Have the odds changed in the last few days, sir?" asked Jade.
"Yes, we got some amateur observations from some reliable sources, and the additional data improves them to twelve percent," he answered.
Jade and Sapphire exchanged a look. "Great," muttered Jade.
"Oh, cheer up," said McTroll, "The comet still has to pass the inner planet, and calculations indicate that most likely it will change the orbit and decrease the odds."
"So what will happen if the odds are improved to a certainty?" asked Sapphire.
McTroll shook his head. "No idea, really. The idea that there may be asteroids and comets out there targeting the world is still fairly new. As far as we know, the last major strike was eighty million years ago.
There's debate in scientific circles about setting up some kind of program specifically looking for threats, but it's still all talk." He paused, then smiled. "I thought it was a good idea, myself. Maybe this will spur some action."
"Hope so," agreed Sapphire, "And in the meantime we've got our own threat to deal with."
McTroll looked at his watch. "Speaking of which, it's nearly noon. Are you two ready?"
"Yes, sir," said Jade and Sapphire in unison.
"Just remember, we're talking to the press. We need to emphasize that the danger is minimal at best, and this is just to let everyone know," he added. "Let's go."
He led the way on stage and stood behind the lectern. The girls stood beside him.
"Good afternoon, ladies and gentletrolls, thanks for coming," he began. "I'm Dr. Granite McTroll. You are all aware of the bright comet that has graced our skies for the last month or so. With me are it's discoverers, Miss Sapphire Trollzawa, and Miss Jade Trollberger.
We here at Mt. Trollamar and at other observatories have been studying it since its discovery late last year. Because of its size and spectrum, we strongly suspect this is its first journey through the inner planetary system, and based on the orbit, quite probably its last.
And speaking of its orbit, if things remain as they are, it will pass quite close to our world and never be seen again."
"How close is 'quite close'?" asked a reporter.
"Between us and the inner moon," he answered. "And before you ask, yes, there is a chance it could hit us. But most likely it will give us a spectacular show as it goes by, and we'll have a new meteor shower for years to come.
Astronomically speaking, the world is a very tiny place, and the comet even smaller. In addition, we're moving, the comet is moving, the other planets are moving, and all that means is that it's very unusual for the odds to be as great as they currently are."
"And what are the odds?" asked another reporter, whom Sapphire recognized as Brenda Trollbender, the TV personality who covered the Trollzopolis Dayz Faire that Simon had attacked.
"Right now they stand at twelve percent," said McTroll, taking off his glasses and cleaning them. "But don't forget that means an eighty-eight percent chance it will miss entirely. In fact, we expect its orbit to shift away from us, but we won't know for sure until we find it again after it passes the inner planet and travels around the sun."
"When will that happen?" asked someone in the back of the room.
"Two months," was the reply. "We'll recalculate the orbit as soon as possible."
"I see," said the reporter, "Tell me, girls, how does it feel to have discovered the thing that might destroy the world?"
Jade grinned at the question. "A lot better than if we had CAUSED the end of the world!"
That broke the tension, and everyone laughed.
"what about you, Miss?" asked another.
"Pretty good, actually," answered Sapphire, "The earlier we find the problem, the longer we have to consider the possibilities and find a solution. Forewarned is forearmed, after all."
"what can we do about it?" asked another reporter.
"First, I want to emphasize that most likely nothing will need to be done about it. If you recall, there have been other objects with a similar probability, and nothing happened. It's just that this particular object is bright and well known."
The gasses the comet puts out are mostly water vapor, so if we, say, pass through the tail we'll get a spectacular meteor shower, and nothing else.
"We will keep an eye on its orbit, and let the public know future developments," answered Dr. McTroll.
With a few more questions, the press conference ended. Nobody really noticed that the question of what to do hadn't been answered.
bffl bffl bffl
In due course Comet Trollzawa-Trollberger disappeared into the sun's light, and they had to wait until it moved far enough away from the sun to be seen again to determine what changes had been made to its orbit.
Sapphire and Jade were at the Observatory with Dr. McTroll as the measurements were taken and the data run through the computer.
The answer finally appeared, and the scientist looked at it.
"Not what we hoped for at all," he said, "There is now an eighty-six percent chance it will hit."
"Great," muttered Sapphire, "Onyx has been razzing me for months about causing the end of the world. Now I won't hear the end of it until it happens. And maybe not even then."
Despite the concern, Jade snorted in laughter.
"Let's see..." said McTroll, "If I add the inner planet and ours into the simulation..." He typed commands rapidly, and the computer took a minute to chew it over. The display changed again.
"The positions and masses of the moons..." he muttered, accessing a database of the physical properties of the planets and moons.
"And that makes it almost a certainty," he said, sitting back, "Ninety-eight point eight percent."
Jade's giggle fit ended abruptly, and she gasped.
"How long do we have, sir?" asked the blue-haired troll girl. She put on her glasses and looked at the monitor.
"Three months, five days," he answered. "Excuse me, I need to contact the Astronomer's Union and the government." He picked up the phone.
The two students stayed until the projected place on the planet where the comet would hit was determined- somewhere in the southern hemisphere's part of the ocean west of the Troll Nation.
Depending on how much mass the comet had, there would be tsunamis generated that would do a lot of damage to the coasts.
Trollhiti would likely cease to exist as an inhabited place. Since Trollzopolis was a hundred and fifty miles inland, the water wouldn't reach it, but there would still be a lot of damage, possibly from superheated water and debris. Really, though, there was no way to know what would happen until it did, so everything that might happen would have to be considered, and decisions made.
The best thing would be to prevent the collision, but how?
The end of the world was coming, and nobody had any idea what to do about it.