A Fly in the Garden: Chapter 5

DISCLAIMER: None of these characters are mine, but they are memorable. Thank you, Mr. Marlowe.

Saturday, February 20, 2012 – 9:52 a.m. – At the Castles Complex in Sausalito, California

It's been barely twenty minutes – if that - since Mayor Clooney left the building with Mike Monroe and Detective Jennifer Blackard, so Richard Castle is somewhat surprised when the group returns to the conference room. A typical tour takes at least half an hour, and he idly wonders who cut the tour short - the mayor, or Mike. He gets his answer quickly.

"Hey boss," Monroe greets him, glancing at Kate as he does also.

"Mike," Castle returns the greeting. "Short tour?"

"Yeah, there were quite a few families out and about, and I wasn't sure how everyone would react seeing the mayor here this morning, or whether or not the mayor wanted to be seen, so we kind of zipped past the housing area without going inside any of them."

Castle nods appreciatively, as Monroe continues.

"And I didn't show her the Z. Figured you would want to in your own time."

"Thanks Mike," Castle replies, noticing the upward eyebrows given to him by the mayor. "Private memorial. I'll show you when we finish here," he tells Clooney.

"No time like the present," Sandra Clooney replies amiably. She glances at the remaining adults in the room as she continues. "Do you mind if we fly solo on this one for a bit, folks?"

"Not at all," responds Kate, answering for the team. She senses that Castle will appreciate a little time alone with the mayor to test his theories. Theories which she has to admit have her troubled. She doesn't want to think of her friend Jennifer somehow being involved in this, or withholding information. On the other hand, Castle did say that the more likely scenario is that a bus driver is turning the surveillance off. That, however, bring little comfort to her. With this many women missing, and with many of the abductions taking place on buses or at bus stops, it follows that someone – someone – has to have looked at video surveillance from the buses. It is impossible for that someone not to realize that the surveillance skips, even a few seconds. She refuses to believe this. So that means that – in either scenario - someone inside MUNI, or inside the police department is hiding something.

Either way, it is not good news, as she watches Castle and the mayor of San Francisco walk out the door.

Castle, for his part, walks in silence through the halls, opening the back door which flows out into the back grounds. They walk in continued silence along the pathway into the wooded area, Mayor Clooney more than content to allow Castle time to collect his thoughts before she begins. It gives her time to, once again for the second time in the past half hour, marvel at the beauty and the serenity of the grounds that Castle has created for the women and their families. If there were any doubts in her mind about the sincerity of the man, they are pounded into oblivion as they walk between the buildings, gorgeous in architecture, and the perfectly manicured lawns, rich in color from the floral plantings.

Two minutes turn into three, and three into five, the silence now almost unnerving the mayor. She glances sideways at her walking companion who seems calm and – dare she say it – peaceful as they walk westward into the woods.

"Not what came to mind when I heard you were building safe homes for battered women," Clooney finally manages.

He simply nods his head with an affirmative grunting sound, clearly lost in thought as he leads her further into the warmth of the canopy of trees overhead as they approach a clearing. Sandra Clooney glances ahead at the out-of-place rock structure that looks larger with their every approaching step. Finally standing in front of the structure that rises some eight feet into the air, the mayor reads the inscription on the wooden planks embedded into the rock.

For Penny – whose courage remains the foundation of these Castles.

"This is the Z," he finally tells her in almost hushed tones. "Named after Penny Zimmerman. A woman we didn't save. A woman I didn't save."

The mayor considers these words, immediately realizing there is a history here, a story here. She almost asks about it, but then reconsiders. This is a world-class author standing with her, his philanthropic nature aside. He's a storyteller. And he isn't telling this story, at least not yet. Which tells her he doesn't want to. So she gives him his secrecy, his solitude.

"You can't save everyone, Mr. Castle," she finally manages.

"Unacceptable," his replies firmly.

"Unreasonable," she counters.

"Anyone who makes the decision to come here," he argues, turning to face her. "From that moment on, they are my responsibility. From the moment they make that decision until they arrive, and from the second they arrive until they leave – they are my responsibility. That's what Penny taught me. Getting them here once they have made the decision is just as important as what we do once they arrive."

He turns away from her now, reaching out to touch the inscription.

"Someone is taking women in your city, Mayor Clooney. Someone is looking at a woman, and from that moment on, that woman is doomed. Nothing is being done about it. That's unacceptable to a mother who is now a resident here, who has lost her daughter. Therefore, it is also unacceptable to me."

"What exactly do you plan on doing, Mr. Castle?" she asks.

"Whatever is necessary."

"But you know nothing, as we stand here today," she counters, testing his resolve in the matter. "You don't know where she is, or who has taken her. You don't know where to even start."

"And I have your police department to thank for that," he counters, testily. "Ten, eleven abductions without a single clue? Your department is either inept or corrupt."

"Touche," she replies, giving him latitude. She has been searching for someone she can trust to have this open dialogue with. And Bob Weldon has told her she can trust Richard Castle. He also warned her that although he is a world-famous author with a wickedly rich vocabulary, subtly is not his strong suit.

"What if she's already dead, Mr. Castle?"

"Then she's dead," he replies quickly, his gaze boring into hers. "Either way, her mother deserves to know. Her mother needs to know. Not knowing will haunt her the rest of her life. That's unacceptable."

"Her daughter's whereabouts aren't your concern, though," Clooney argues. In truth, she is pushing him, wanting to see just how committed he is to this before she opens up fully. "Your passion here is helping battered women."

"Her daughter's whereabouts became my concern the minute she walked onto this campus," he tells her, his voice steady. "My passion is helping battered women understand the root cause of their problems, and dealing with it. In this particular case, the root cause of the problem between husband and wife is their missing daughter."

He may be right, he may be wrong, the mayor decides, but at least now she understands his drive, and how deep it goes. She smiles.

She walks to the small stone bench a few feet to the side of the memorial structure. A granite plank, roughly seven feet long and two feet wide/deep is embedded into the stone. She sits at one end, and pats the space next to her. A second later, Castle complies, sitting next to her, placing his head in his hands, rubbing his hands through his hair.

"I'm going to start a task force, Mr. Castle," she begins, "but it is primarily just for show. Something is dirty in my city, and until I know the source of that dirt, I have to play things close to the vest. However, Bob told me that I can trust you, that I can trust Ms. Beckett. He also told me that you and Ms. Beckett may have a better chance of running this to the ground than my entire team.

Castle chuckles at the thought, staring straight ahead.

"I laughed too, Mr. Castle," she admits. "But Bob then told me not to underestimate what you and your partner are able to achieve, together. He told me that many a criminal made that mistake in the past four years or so, much to their chagrin."

"Bob is being kind," Castle offers, somewhat taken aback by the support from his old friend.

"He said you would say that," she chuckles again. "He also said that your ways – although unorthodox – are effective. I have to admit he worried me when he refused to elaborate on 'unorthodox'."

"Smart man," Castle grins, finally glancing her way again. "Kate and I are good together."

"Do tell," Mayor Clooney smiles in return.

"I can see why Bob likes you," he admits between chuckles. "He told me I could trust you also. Holds you in high regard."

A look flashes – ever so quickly – across her face and then it is gone. But it does not go unnoticed by Castle, who smiles inwardly, mentally jotting down a reminder to ask his friend in New York just what the relationship between he and the mayor of San Francisco is.

"So," Mayor Clooney continues, bringing the conversation back to the topic at hand, "here is my dilemma. We have women disappearing. No clues, no leads."

"That's not exactly accurate," Castle refutes with a sad smile, now beginning to truly wonder which of the scenarios is in play here – ineptitude or corruptness. "Detective Blackard shared her data with us last night," he continues, hoping he isn't causing problems for the SFPD detective in the process.

"Counting this morning, this is eleven women missing. According to the data, eight of these women went missing after catching a city bus. Of those eight scenarios, it looks like three bus lines, three bus routes were common between all of them. So that's exhibit A where Kate and I are going to start."

The concern on Sandra Clooney's face is telling, and Castle understands.

"You got all of this from glancing overnight at data my police department already has?" the mayor asks, the tension rising in her voice.

"I said your problem was ineptitude or corruptibility," Castle answers. "I was being a bit too hard on your force, because the other – and just as likely cause – is a little something we call the confirmation bias."

"The what?" Clooney asks.

"The confirmation bias," Castle repeats with a smile. "The confirmation bias refers to our tendency to search for, and favor any information that confirms what we already believe, while simultaneously ignoring – or devaluing – information that contradicts our beliefs. It's a trap that most people fall into, but one that most good writers – especially mystery writers – avoid."

The look of confusion on the mayor's face tells him further elaboration is necessary, so he continues onward.

"One of the things that used to drive Beckett and the boys – the other detectives she and I worked with back in New York – one of the things that used to drive them absolutely nuts was my . . . er . . . tendency to come up with outlandish theories. Zombies, vampires, aliens, you name it. They would just chalk it up to my wild imagination and boyish, hopeful wishes," he chuckles, his eyes dancing. "In reality, it was simply my way of never falling into a confirmation bias – looking at the evidence in one way and one way only."

He glances at Sandra Clooney again, and smiles as he stands up. He extends his hand toward her, which she accepts, rising off the stone and granite bench.

"Walk with me," he tells her, releasing her hand and walking further westward into the trees as she falls in alongside him on the pathway.

"Let me give you an example. Let's take you and I," he tells her. "You believe that climate change is real, and it is a serious issue. So you only search out and read stories about environmental conservation, climate change and how renewable energy is vital to our future. As a result, you continue to confirm and support what you already believe."

The nodding of her head is confirmation for him to continue.

"Meanwhile, let's say that I am on the other side of the fence. I don't believe that climate change is a serious issue, and so I only search out and read stories that talk about how climate change is nothing more than a fairy tale, a myth. I read stories about why scientists are incorrect. As a result, I continue to confirm and support what I already believe. You see, this is why it is hard for us – as human beings – to reach common ground more easily, because changing what we believe – changing our mind – it's much harder than it looks. The more you believe you know something, the more you filter out and ignore any and all information that doesn't support what you believe."

"Interesting theory," Mayor Clooney remarks, "and one I can see the truth in. But what does that have to do with –"

"It has everything to do with these disappearances," he interrupts, "or rather how your police department is looking at these disappearances. It's why I believe Beckett and I work so well together. She's a cop at heart, the best detective I have ever met – bar none. She gathers evidence and then formulates a hypothesis of what she thinks happened in a case. From that point on, she looks for evidence that supports her hypothesis. That's what your police department does. That's what good attorneys do. She just does it better than most."

He turns to face her suddenly, stopping both of them in their tracks.

"I, on the other hand," he continues, "like to create a hypothesis and then test out various scenarios and ways to prove it false. It's what makes for a more interesting writer – one who can show a reader evidence, show a reader one path, and then subtly take that reader down a very different path. The element of surprise. I don't like to prove my hypothesis is correct. I look to prove it is incorrect. That encourages me – that enables me – to consider other scenarios that most would consider far-fetched and preposterous."

The mayor is smiling now, considering one Richard Castle in a very new and different light. He sees the moment of clarity in her eyes and smiles.

"That's why I think – that's why I sincerely hope – that your department hasn't flushed something out yet," he continues. "When I spoke with Kate last night, and even today, she found it implausible, unlikely that MUNI is involved in these disappearances. So when she and I looked at the data Jennifer – Detective Blackard – provided, and we saw that three different bus routes were involved in those situations where a woman disappeared . . . well, that just validated what she was already thinking. In her mind, if MUNI is involved, if someone from MUNI is involved, if this is a bus driver doing all of this, then only one bus route would have turned up. We would have looked at the driver assignments and figured out quickly who the driver was and – bingo – you have cause to bring in a suspect for questioning at a minimum. That's how she wants it to work. That's how the normal cop wants it to work. But remember, it is not natural for us to create a hypothesis and then test the evidence to prove it false. No, it is far more natural, far more likely that we will form a hypothesis, assume that it is true, and only seek out information that validates it. Most of the time, we don't want new information. We want validating information. It's a short cut that often causes us to ignore the real truth.

"So how do you read it then, Mr. Castle? How do three bus routes tell you that MUNI might be involved?"

"Because if MUNI is involved, if a bus driver is involved, then they have to be so calculating, so intelligent, so forward thinking to set up a human trafficking plan, to operationalize it, to fund it, to manage it, to keep it hidden deep under the radar . . . and yet be stupid enough to only use one bus?" he laughs – literally laughs. "That's my definition of preposterous. If someone at MUNI is involved, then they would cover their tracks. They'd use multiple buses, multiple bus routes."

He turns about-face, nodding his head to the side indicating they should return back.

"So Kate believes that MUNI can't be involved. That's her hypothesis. That's the hypothesis I would guess most of your police force believe, because the notion that your city transportation department is involved in something this nefarious is tough to swallow, it's tough to get your arms around. So she – and I believe – your police look for information to support that hypothesis, to support the belief that MUNI can't be involved. I, on the other hand, look at that same evidence trying to prove the belief that MUNI can't be involved to be a false assumption. Multiple buses don't bother me. They tell me there is organization and planning and subterfuge. Just like I would write it."

The mayor is quiet for a moment, considering this information before she speaks. They leave the path and now take a short cut through the clearing, passing by the rock memorial again, the leaves crackling underneath their feet the only sound as they make their way back.

"So that's why you two work so well together," the mayor smiles. "She is working hard to prove on thing, while you are working just as hard to prove that one thing false. It covers more bases."

"Exactly," he smiles, giving mental kudos to the mayor.

"So how do you do something like this without driving each other absolutely crazy?" she asks.

"Who says we don't drive each other crazy?" he counters, and they both chuckle as they reach the trees leading them back onto the path toward the residences just a few minutes away now.

"There is one other piece of good news," Castle tells her after another minute of silence as they walk along the pathway. "The disappearance you told us about this morning. You said it occurred on or near Pier 39."

"On Pier 39," the mayor confirms. "Ward's sister said they had just finished eating there."

"That, Mayor Clooney, is the third abduction to take place out at Fisherman's Wharf. So that means we have multiple scenarios. To Kate, that proves that this isn't something happening on the buses."

"But to you," the mayor continues a few seconds later, "that doesn't prove that whoever is behind this is not using buses . . ." she pauses.

"It just means they are usually using buses, and occasionally using another location or situation," he continues for her, "but in either case, it's either on or off a bus, or down at the wharf. Whoever this is has figured out two avenues to conduct their . . . business. Because they are not usually either avenue exclusively causes most observers to conclude that neither avenue is part of their M.O., when in fact -"

"When in fact, both avenues – buses and the wharf – are part of their M.O.," the mayor finishes his thought, nodding her head. "Bob was right about you," she states, under her breath.

"So you see," Castle continues as they walk through the clearing, the residences and administrative building now in sight, "we actually do have clues, we do have leads . . . I just suspect that because we are dealing with some clever people, because they have given us two M.O.'s, I suspect that – like Kate – your police department is ignoring both, because they don't conform to what they expect."

They walk between a set of residence buildings, and make the turn toward the administrative building, which is roughly one hundred yards away now.

"So what now?" the mayor asks.

"Well, I appreciate that Mike cut your tour short, keeping prying eyes away from you," Castle begins.

"I appreciate his foresight as well" Clooney replies amiably.

"There is, however, one woman I would like for you to meet," Castle tells her. "Someone for whom everything we have been discussing is very important. Her name is Pamela Hamilton."

"Her daughter was taken," the mayor nods.

"Yes," Castle responds. "And seeing you, knowing that you are involved, may do her a world of good, Mayor Clooney."