I wrote this several months ago so it is ironic that it came time to post today when these issues are in our news as we speak. Of course, this is a fictitious drama, based entirely out of the alternative universe that I made up that in my own head, not the real life actions of world leaders. But don't let that get in the way of a good story...which is that trade partnerships are a form of economic warfare. And just like one country could not have won the Battle of the Atlantic alone, neither can one country exist in isolation. Economics is about give and take and if you rely too much of one or the other, pretty soon you are out of the game.
**My Little Basquiat, Cowboy Junkies**
Wills sighed and set down his coffee mug with a distinct clink on the table top. He waved to Sergeant Mulroney. "Please, can you bring the blue folder and the map?" Danny noticed how polite Wills always was. It was a trait he shared with Michener. "Thank you Sergeant." He accepted a rolled map and used the coffee mugs and lantern on the table to hold it open. Danny saw that it showed all of North America.
"Here's the deal." Wills stood to lean over the table. He swiped a finger over the territory encompassing the MCF. "Under NAFTA, Canada and the US have very few tariffs or trade restrictions. Canada is a net exporter of agricultural goods, especially produce and dairy, to the US while the US in turn is a net exporter of meat and corn to Mexico. Canada has a restriction on meat importation from the US but not Mexico." He used a pen to circle two places on the western border. He pulled over another map. "Here are the freight lines in North America. As you can see, the system was designed to bring goods to ports on the Mississippi and the coasts but not north-south between Canada and Mexico. So historically we've had little trade with Mexico."
"When the MCF contacted me they didn't just ask me to recognize them as a sovereign country. They also reminded me that they are not part of NAFTA and therefore can freely assign tariffs as they see fit. Canada has vast tracts of farm acreage producing corns in the center of the country and a large cattle industry in the west. We are a net exporter of both. The majority of our corns go to the cattle industry either in the US or western Canada. After that, the excess grain is mostly traded to Mexico. If we don't have buyers next summer we'll have an economic disaster."
Michener dropped his head to the table and groaned. "And most of the cattle ranching in the US is now in the MCF territory which will need to import grain to sustain itself."
"Exactly. So Presidente Himenez has informed me that he'd like to impose heavy tariffs on US produced grain thereby making it preferable for his ranchers to rely on local supplies and Canadian imports. In short, he's offering to shift the economic disaster from Canada to the remaining US in exchange for international recognition of his administration."
"So that's why they took Kansas." Michener still had his face on his desk. "We've been trying to figure out what was so valuable about Kansas because it's the only state they are claiming that doesn't really have a strong Mexican-American contingent to its current population. I can't believe we didn't see that."
William sighed and tapped the map again with his fingers. "Right, well, economic geography is kind of my thing..Yes." He blushed a little. "They are trying to re-create a ranching based economy but they want to sell cattle at the modern grain fattened prices. In some ways, looking at the history of the region and the socio-economic welfare of the people that are part of the movement, it isn't surprising. These are the same people who would have supported separation before. And although it's been couched in terms of ethnic pride, it's really about economics, plain and simple. The people who used to make a decent living as ranch and farm laborers are now losing more and more to landowners and large agribusiness. Himenez is just giving them an outlet for the anger they already have."
"So are you saying that we should let them go? Or promise them the same things that Himenez has?"
The King shook his head. "No, it's an empty promise. People forget how much the global economy has improved their quality of life. Regional economies are great if you have everything you need and want inside your region. If all you want is food and shelter that's fine. But now a days people want technology...cars, TVs, computers, smartphones. They might say they can do without it, but they forget that would also mean not getting an MRI when their kid has cancer; not talking daily with their mom who lives across the country; not knowing if the water they drink is really clean. The humanitarian in me knows that we will all benefit from re-establishing global trade, especially if we think carefully about how to make the system more equitable going forward. Himenez's policies might make things better in the short term, but over the long haul the citizens of the MCF will be disappointed when they find that they don't have the means to make the things they want at a reasonable price."
Michener lifted his head and leveled an eye on the King. "You're not the disinterested figure head I was expecting." He tilted his head to the side, considering his words for a moment. "I've never been interested in rivalries and political maneuvering. I haven't prepared all my life to lead either. But I can see that you are potentially a very powerful ally so I will be straight with you. My hands are tied. Our system is the opposite of yours. You grant power to parliament while I beg mine from congress. Without a congress I cannot declare war on the MCF. But without a congress I also cannot accept their succession."
"So you're going to sit by while they dismantle what's left of your country? Accept the remains and go on your way. Long live what's left of the US and all that?" William narrowed his eyes on Michener, challenging him to respond.
"No." Michener looked off into the darkness of the tunnel in front of him for a moment. Then his gaze swung to the men sitting along the curb. He briefly met Danny's eyes and Danny saw the torture there. After their adventure last night, Danny realized that Michener liked to think on things for a long time before he revealed his take. He might not have said anything yet, but he had probably been chewing on whatever he was going to say for this entire trip. Declaring war would probably mean leaving Kara again, and soon the baby too. He wouldn't want to go, not the way he used to. But it was his job and damnit, he wanted the country they knew and loved back. Sure it wasn't perfect, but the states were better together than as separate entities, weren't they? Michener's gravelly response broke him out of his reverie. "No. I'm going to break them them before it comes to that. It is only January. Can you hold them off at least until we can get a congress together?"
"Not exactly." William leaned back in his chair and covered his eyes with one arm. "They are eager for international recognition because that gives them legitimacy and helps them establish themselves as trade partners. As soon as the cure begins spreading, there's going to be a scramble for new allies. Old power blocks are going to be disrupted and new ones formed. But I think we can take advantage of that, to help both of our countries."
"Go ahead."
William leaned over the table, his long form casting a shadow over the map. "The thing with Canada is that our season is late. So, even if we make an agreement with the MCF now, we can't ship them anything until we can begin haying in May or early June. Between fuel shortages and the disruption of the fall harvest, I have the impression that these western ranchers have pretty much had to rely on local supplies instead of shipments of grain. Whatever they have stored must be used up or getting low already."
The tense furrow that had formed on Michener's brow when William mentioned making an agreement now relaxed. "So you're saying you'll play the statesman and appear to play ball as they realize how much they need the more southern grain suppliers and in the meantime I can work on taking down their regime? I like it." He steepled his fingers and considered for a moment. "They will of course use your acknowledgment to open other doors internationally."
William returned a hawkish grin. "Ah, but here's the piece de resistance. My advisor's tell me that beef that's finished on hay and old grass has an unpleasant taste. Their hands are tied too. They need at least eight weeks of fresh grass or an influx of grain before they have a product to sell internationally. So they can shake all the hands they like, they won't be making any large scale trades until at least late June. Plus, I will be acting on behalf of all 20 member nations of the Commonwealth. That's going to leave a mark in their customer base."
"What about California?" Michener was nodding now, but Danny could see that he still wasn't ready to shake on it. "California isn't an agricultural economy."
William agreed. "That's the first state you need to peel off the MCF's territory. It will be a crippling loss because they will then have only their ports in Texas. They will lose access to the Pacific markets, to the largest population concentrations in the world."
They discussed the other tactics they could use to stall the MCF. In the end they decided that for now Michener had more military capacity and would take the lead on that front. William, meanwhile, would quietly begin the process of rebuilding international diplomatic relations. They were wrapping up and shaking hands when Danny's mic crackled in his ear.
"Sir, we've got company." Danny's breath stopped. He stepped back from the group and spoke quietly into his comm.
"Mason? Where, how many."
"Don't know. I just heard at least two vehicles pull up. So far no one has gotten out."
Danny weighed the benefit of having Mason and Alicia join them versus info about the size and number of potential foes.
"Make that 4 vehicles."
Danny motioned to Burk to join him as he asked Mason. "Can you tell if it's trucks or cars? How many?" He was reminded why Burk was one of the best. He didn't wait for orders, just motioned to Miller to follow him and jogged away into the dark.
"Shit!" Over the comm Danny heard Mason moving. "I hear boots but not doors so I'm going with trucks." He had to make the decision fast. Mason and Alicia were valuable, too important to let them be the first troops down.
"Abandon your position and hotfoot it down here. Burk and Miller are heading toward you. If you get trapped, go down flat on the left side and give me a three click status confirmation every minute."
"Aye sir." There was a shuffle in the background and he assumed Mason was lifting his pack and beginning to move.
