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Red John's first mistake was Carter Peake. After that, he took precautions. Eventually he recruited Partridge as his final backstop.
Meticulousness was his religion. But some things can't be controlled for.
He was avenging an insult made by a journalist in Carmel. But, unbeknowns to the killer, he was coming down with the flu. Flu which arrives in sudden, all-consuming sneezes.
He caught the first sneeze in his left palm, then transferred the DNA onto the victim whilst making one of the deeper cuts. He never even realised.
And his tame forensic tech? Out of state on leave.