Another slight rewrite, this one occurring in 'ACOK: Tyrion I' The rewrite occurs as Tyrion is speaking to Cersei about who killed Jon Arryn, and ends when the question of how Cersei dispatched Robert Baratheon comes up. Enjoy.
Disclaimer: I do not own nor do I claim any ideas, places, or characters from the 'A Song of Ice and Fire' series. Cheers
"Who murdered Jon Arryn?" It was a question of great importance to Tyrion, but as he posed the question, his sister yanked her hand away from him.
"How am I supposed to know that?!" She spat at him.
"Because a certain boy of the Eyrie thinks you were the one to kill him." Tyrion eyed her with suspicion. "And if what I've heard is correct, he left Riverrun and is marching south as we speak."
"And why would Olyvar Arryn dare to attack us here?"
"Where do I begin the list?" Tyrion began sarcastically. "He believes you to have killed his father. He knows your son killed his uncle. We hold his cousins, or should I say cousin, hostage. You convinced Robert to name Jaime Warden of the East, and to sweeten the pot he loathes Joffrey like Robert loathed Rhaegar Targaryen. Are those good enough reasons for you?" As Tyrion mocked his sister with the answers, he could see Cersei's lip curl as she faced the truth of the matter. Whichever side Arryn declared for, should he back it fully, that side's chances would be greatly enhanced.
"Father will come."
"As I already told you, Father is busy dealing with Robb Stark in the Riverlands. He is not coming, else he would not have went to Harrenhall and allowed the boy's army to waltz by him without lifting a finger." Tyrion poured himself a glass before continuing. "He let the boy cross the Ruby Ford without so much as a skirmish." He started drinking.
"Ridiculous. Father wouldn't have let twenty thousand men cross the Ford uncontested and siege King's Landing at their leisure." Cersei was nearly beside herself in panic at the revelation. Tyrion could only assume that with the recent activity in the south, his sister and nephew had not taken much care in regarding the happenings of the Riverlands. Only a sign of how much you do not know, sweet sister.
"And yet he did. Which means only one thing." Tyrion's grin drew wide. As High As Honor. "Father believes the boy is not coming south to attack us."
"Then wh-" Before she could finish her statement, Cersei's eyes grew as wide as her smile did upon the realization. "He's going to aid Stannis in the Stormlands. He's off to fight against Renly."
"We should count ourselves lucky. The Arryn boy will likely get crushed whilst dwindling down Renly's forces by a fair margin. It won't enough to save us while Father is still in the Riverlands, but the time it buys will allow us to prepare for Renly." It was a shame in Tyrion's mind. The boy had become so good at cyvasse, yet it seemed he was back to making more tactical mistakes. Attacking a hundred thousand, a grand folly indeed. "I was amazed he didn't join his cousin. But it seems as if he is pledged to follow Stannis to an early grave."
"The more that follow that fool, the better." Cersei toasted her glass to the notion before drinking it. But even after thinking Olyvar Arryn a fool, Tyrion suddenly felt that something was not right. He knew the boy to be smarter than this, and yet he was willingly marching into a death trap? Perhaps Lord Tywin's gamble would prove wrong, and the boy would indeed siege the capital as he feared. Then their father would be forced to come, just as Cersei had ordered in the first place, leaving Robb Stark uncontested in the Riverlands. Everything fell to the belief that Olyvar would march for Storm's End to aid Stannis. If he didn't, the war would likely be lost.
"We need to be careful." He warned. "If Father was wrong about Olyvar's intentions, then he will come here, and will have twenty thousand men at his back, ready to behead us all." Secretly, Tyrion cursed Tywin Lannister for simply allowing Olyvar Arryn to cross uncontested. It was a gamble that Tyrion knew was high, and if his father was wrong, they would not live for very long. But if there was ever a man that knew people better than Tyrion could, it was Lord Tywin.
"The boy is just that; a child who has never won a battle in his life." Cersei said with triumph, as if the potential battle was already won. "He won't be able to organize his men properly. By the time he has them together, Father will sweep from the Riverlands and crush him."
"You are underestimating him and Robb Stark. The Arryn boy has Yohn Royce as his top commander, I would say that keeps him as a formidable piece on the board. The question is whether his duty to Stannis supersedes his desire for vengeance. And since I've already made the point about how he hates you and Joffrey, we don't seem to have the odds in our favor."
"If so, then we must prepare for siege." Cersei said fiercely. "I will have Janos Slynt prepare the walls."
"Agreed, although I don't believe that it will be all that necessary." Tyrion said confidently. "If the boy decides to make a stop, I do think that I can talk him out of taking our heads first."
"And how do you propose to do that?" His sister asked in suspicion.
"Simple. We remind him that if he deals with us, his precious Lord Stannis' head gets chopped off. That will be enough to drive him away."
"And if it isn't?"
Tyrion leaned back in his chair and looked at Cersei with a grin. "Then I'm afraid we will be joining your late husband in the grave very shortly." Tyrion wondered if the time he had spent on the Kingsroad with Olyvar would spare his head from sharing a spike next to Joffrey's. "Speaking of which, sweet sister, how did you do in dear Robert?"
A/N: And so Tywin Lannister's plan/gamble reveals itself. Although I wouldn't call it much of a gamble, considering Tywin knows his enemies very well, but that's up for interpretation. The question is if Olyvar will follow through with what Tywin and Tyrion expect him to do. Guess we will see.
Someone pointed out that the Vale had 40-45K available as a levy. I've seen conflicting reports all around the internet, and until someone can finally give me an accurate assessment, I'm going to stick with 30-35K as the measurable.
KnightofHolyLight asked for my own interpretation of the Red Comet. With all of the vast theories out there, it's just so difficult to narrow anything down, especially with all the various prophecies that exist in the universe of aSoIaF. My guess, is that it serves as a signal for the Prince that was Promised, which could be any one of numerous characters. But like I said, it's so tough to really narrow anything down right now, hopefully tWoW helps lift the veil.