Fort Dawnguard, Fredas, 12th of Evening Star, 4E 201
Isran was no fool. He knew that vampires were dangerous, and that inviting one into Fort Dawnguard was a shaky endeavor; at best, the defenses he had put in place would be seen by the enemy. Guard numbers and locations, not to mention the layout of the Fort itself, would be laid bare. Sacrificing the security of the fledgling army defending Skyrim from vampires was not an action to be taken lightly… but information on the enemy was valuable, as well, and an insider wishing to speak to him about the vampire hierarchy could be valuable in destroying them.
The Dawnguard leader remembered the argonian he sent into Dimhollow Crypt well. The newcomer had patiently waited in the shadow of the entrance while he was preoccupied with Tolan, but had confidently stepped into the light streaming in from above when Isran had glanced in his direction while Agmaer had hesitated. Where the farm boy had only swung "his pa's axe" a handful of times to chop wood, the reptilian man was clearly a seasoned adventurer. He was armed with daggers at his back, a sword at his left hip, and a bow slung across one shoulder, carrying ammunition on his right leg. He clearly favored stealthy combat, like most of his kind; in Black Marsh, Isran knew, argonians were trained to attack from the shadows, trained in close combat and stealth. Not what he was looking for in the Dawnguard, ideally, but Isran needed bodies, and he wasn't about to refuse a volunteer.
In any case, Isran refused to simply allow a vampire into Fort Dawnguard without good reason. He believed, strongly, that vampires as a whole needed to be eradicated; that belief was what had kept him alive and unwavering throughout his life. He was not above subterfuge, though. If the vampires truly desired to back down, then Isran would accept the surrender and promptly burn them all while they were vulnerable. However, Isran could not trust himself to be rational. Whoever had sent the letter was trying to manipulate his emotions, cloud his thinking; he needed someone to verify his thought process, vindicate this deal with the devil.
Thus, Isran turned to the only two people in Fort Dawnguard who did not regard him as a leader. Leaders weren't questioned, but friends and enemies alike would be willing and even eager to see flaws in his decisions. Sorine Jurard had a head for seeing all the possible outcomes of the situation, extrapolating to conclusions years in the future with ease. Florentius Baenius, though… while Isran had his doubts about the man's sanity—the same doubts he had of any fanatical priest, especially one who claimed to commune with the Divines directly—there was no doubt that he sometimes showed knowledge of things without any clear explanation. While Gunmar, the Dawnguard's smith, had no qualms about criticizing Isran, he also thought too similarly to him to be of help. Both men were focused on war, pragmatism, and brute force; the problem ahead required more finesse in discovering solutions.
Florentius was of significantly less help than Isran had hoped. "You, of all people, want to invite a vampire into Fort Dawnguard? No. No, I… What? Really? But… fine. Arkay says neither you nor I shall die on the 23rd, but I still think it's a bad idea."
"Great. I have a madman's instincts conflicting with the voices in his head serving as one opinion," Isran grumbled humorlessly as he walked away. Behind him, Florentius muttered about having misplaced an ingredient for a poison… and then musing that perhaps the ingredient did not actually exist, or some such nonsense. Hopefully, Sorine would be more coherent and direct. He wouldn't dislike less belligerence, either. Unfortunately, Sorine wasn't the type to filter her thoughts for the benefit of others, especially where Isran was concerned.
"You recreated the Dawnguard, and now you want to start down the same path as the namesake? Are you insane? Don't you know the legends of how the original Dawnguard chose to all become vampires after seeing how powerful they were? And you want to just let one in?"
"That's why I'm asking. Give me your opinion on the consequences."
"Well, logically…" Sorine paused, taking a few moments to think. "Option one: The whole idea is a ruse meant to confuse us, or is an outright prank by someone else, and the vampires may or may not just storm the fort once we've let our guard down. Option two: This person is who he says he is, and takes advantage while we're welcoming him to kill us all."
"Cheery. So, we don't let our guard down. What happens if we bring him in, bound, so he can't use magic?"
"That's where things get interesting. We can kill him or take him prisoner at any point if he shows hostility, or simply if we want to. We might be able to even interrogate him. If he truly is the leader of the vampires, then he's likely the strongest one. Take him out while he's weak, and the rest will fall more easily. Hell of a gamble, though."
"Sorine… Thanks," Isran said. From him, it was the equivalent of kneeling and kissing her hand in theatrical gratitude. The conversations had been informative, if nothing else. Isran considered the advice he'd been given, tried to see other angles. This was, after all, the leader's job. Leaders weren't questioned. Leaders didn't drive people away with their force of personality, but drew them in with it instead.
Isran wasn't a leader. He had antagonized almost every person he had ever met, such that the Vigilants of Stendarr were happy to see him and his own level of ruthlessness leave the organization. When times had gotten worse despite, or perhaps because of, his inability to compromise with the weakness of others, Isran blamed the people who questioned him and left him. If he had had the help he now commanded, if only because the vampires were brazenly attacking every city in Skyrim, the situation would not be half as bad as it was now. But all those people had to question him, had to doubt him, had to leave him, all because they didn't want to believe the man prophesying the end of the world. And they had all come crawling back now.
Leaders took the advice that was offered to them, synthesized it into a plan, and carried out that plan. Isran had been given his advice; don't trust the letter. It's a trap. Either preemptively attack, or dig in to defend Fort Dawnguard against an assault. It jeopardized far too much to allow a vampire in, regardless of the potential benefits.
Isran wasn't a leader.
"Celann, get a courier. I'm going to pull back some patrols to double the guard around Fort Dawnguard, starting as soon as possible. Just because we're having a guest doesn't mean we're going to be idiots about it." Celann was clearly taken aback, but managed to control the look of shock on his face before asking if Isran was sure he knew what he was doing.
"Not a gods-damned clue," was his reply.