Set anytime in the series after Deeks joins the fun. Deeks has a secret.
Disclaimer: I own nothing and no one. I'm just writing them as I want to see them.
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That night with Kensi's help and her insight into forensics, the law & investigations, Deeks was able to get through the majority of the files before they fell asleep sometime around 3am. Kensi even went so far as to take the files back to Legal Aide for him the next morning while he went for his morning torture session with Sam.
Sam wasn't kidding when he said the workouts were going to be tougher. The morning training session in the gym of the Office of Special Projects turned out to be one of the worst Deeks had suffered in a long time. Dodging Kali sticks that were coming at him from three different attackers who kept circling him was hell on earth. He would dodge one coming at his head and immediately had to dodge a different one coming at another part of his body. Sam explained to him that it was all by reflexes and speed. He did pretty well and didn't get hit often. When he did get hit the attackers were able to hold back on the strength of the hit so they didn't hurt him, much. But he did get hit and it did hurt. It reminded him of the Ben Stiller movie Dodgeball, 'if you can dodge a wrench you can dodge a ball'. Only this time it was't Rip Torn sitting in a wheelchair, it was a determined former Navy SEAL and two other NCIS agents who volunteered to help trying to hit him with Kali sticks. It was so not funny this time. Not surprisingly after that workout he sure didn't feel like the 'jungle cat' he always called himself.
Deeks was walking toward the bullpen, determined to not limp in front of the team, when he saw Eric coming down the stairs. Like every other morning, Eric handed him a DVD of yesterday morning's and last night's training session and walked over to give another copy to Sam. But this wasn't the only thing he had for the team on this case. "The first odds have been posted for your fight." Eric let them know.
Everyone looked up from what they were doing, "What are they?" Deeks wanted to know as he eased himself into his chair.
Eric had a sly smile on his face, "You aren't going to like'em. They have Wyler going off at 30/1."
"30/1?!" Deeks was shocked. "Who set those odds?"
"This first set of odds came from our old friend, Jacoby." Eric informed them.
Deeks shook his head in disgust understanding what Eric was talking about. He had gone undercover as a bookie, using Max Gentry.
Kensi had never laid a bet down in her life and didn't understand how it all worked except that the odds were 'long' for Wyler. "What does that mean in monetary terms?"
Deeks was about to explain but Eric beat him to it, "Basically it means that if you placed a $1 bet on Wyler to win, you would get $30 plus your original bet of $1. Total pay out $31. But only if he won. If you bet $100, you would get $3000 + your original bet of $100. Total payout: $3100."
"Wow, that's a lot." Kensi exhaled in appreciation.
"Yea, but the favorite is currently 3/1. These odds are saying that Wyler's opponent is 10 times likely to win."
"Then, how does a bookie make money?" Nell asked out of curiosity. She had joined them as Eric was explaining the odds. "Aren't most people going to bet on a favorite?"
This is where Eric's expertise really came forward having spent many hours in Vegas until he was banned, "Conservative bettors will bet on the favorite, for example if you placed a $1 bet you would get your $1 back plus $3 in winnings. That means the more people who bet on the longshot the more money a bookie makes. But that's not their main way of making money."
At the blank stares of some of the people around him, he explained further. "Ok, try this, for every person that places a $10 bet on Wyler at 30-1, hoping they will get rich quick, the bookie can take up to 7 people placing a $1 bet on the favorite in order to make money. He doesn't make a lot of money, but he does make money. Bookies make their real money on the VIG. It's like a commission paid out of every bet. Kind of like an investment banker that makes money whether the stocks go up or down, a bookie makes money no matter who wins. That's their real money maker."
Kensi thought she understood, "So if 70 people each placed a $1 bet on the favorite the same bookie needs 10 people to place that same $1 bet on Wyler."
"Not really, no. That math doesn't work. For that same 70 people placing $1 bets he would need 300 people each placing a $1 bet on Wyler to cover the bets if the favorite wins. For that reason there are minimum bets that a bookie will impose. Now, if the longshot wins…"
"Never mind the math Eric. Just continue. Please." Callen said.
Eric smirked but moved on, "What the odds makers do is set the odds to make a longshot bet attractive. If the odds are too steep, say 100-1, they risk not having enough longshot bettors to cover the bets placed on the favorite. They want to keep a balance of people betting on each fighter; so as more people bet on one fighter over the other the odds change to try and bring the betting back into balance. But the odds have to be attractive enough to get people to bet."
"So, basically, they really really really don't think Wyler's going to win." Nell supplied.
"Basically, yea. They think he's going to lose big time." Eric looked at Deeks, "Sorry man."
Callen stepped into the conversation again, "Yea, thanks Eric. Keep an eye on the odds, let us know if they change. You might have found the motive for this mess if the odds change quickly and often." Eric nodded in agreement before Callen continued, "Anything on the blocked phone number or on Jacoby's past? He asked the duo.
"Sort of, I can tell you the call came from an encrypted phone that I've been able to trace to the CIA. Who has that phone, I can't tell yet." Eric let him know. "Also, I haven't broken the encryption yet." He looked embarrassed that it was taking him so long to break it.
"I've been trying to gain access to the CIA files on Jacoby but they're still arguing with me. Hetty is making inquiries with her contacts in the CIA as well." Nell added.
"Thanks guys, keep at it and let us know." Callen stated. Eric and Nell started to head back to ops but stopped when Callen called out him, "Eric? How do you know all this betting stuff?"
Eric looked a little smug, "I spent some time in Vegas," he paused for dramatic effect, "before I was banned." His statement stunned the four people sitting the bullpen long enough that he and Nell were back upstairs before anyone thought to question him.
"Did Eric just say he was BANNED from Vegas?" Deeks asked no one in particular. Three heads nodded in unison as the only answer they could give him.
Sam continued with the case information, "So, the CIA's behind this." He had their attention, "the call that was pressuring Jacoby came from an encrypted CIA phone. It's a good bet," he smirked, "that they are somehow behind this."
Callen dropped his pen on his desk and leaned back in his chair with one arm slung over the back. "Ok, say the CIA is behind this. To what end? What do they want or what do they get out of an MMA fight?"
"The CIA contacts Jacoby maybe because he was an old asset and they knew about his underground fight promotion, maybe because they can manipulate him easily, either way they get him to promote this fight. So, he gets a fairly well know and ranked fighter and then pulls in a fighter that doesn't have that great of a record." Sam countered.
"But that doesn't answer the 'why'. What does an MMA have that could interest the CIA?" Callen asked again.
"Lots of people, hot women, violence, performance enhancing drugs, other drugs." Sam said back.
This entire time Kensi and Deeks were watching the partners talk back and forth like they were watching a tennis match until Deeks cut in, "It's more than that. It brings in a lot of money and loads of people from around the world depending on who's fighting. High rollers are very common."
Callen raised an eyebrow at him so Deeks continued, "Betting as we just learned is very prevalent. Dropping thousands of dollars on a fight isn't uncommon for some of these guys."
"Ok, so there's a lot of betting, but again what does that get the CIA?" Kensi asked this time.
"Maybe…we're thinking about this the wrong way. Maybe they're not connected at all except through Jacoby." Deeks suggested.
"So you think there is no connection between MMA and CIA? Then why would the CIA force Jacoby into promoting a fight?" Callen asked.
"Maybe they needed him to promote the fight to…I don't know…get everyone's attention away from something else." Deeks answered.
"I think I need to lighten up on the training for a couple of days. You may have taken one hit to many this morning." Sam scoffed at him.
Deeks was staring at Sam in shock that Sam would blow him off so easily. "You know Sam…ok. You figure it out. I'm going to check with Eric and Nell. See if they have can find any footage about this other fighter." Deeks got up and walked away.
Sam was surprised. He didn't understand where Deeks' obvious anger was coming from. The fact that the normally laid back detective was even showing anger surprised him.
It was Kensi that supplied him with the information, "You know Sam, Deeks isn't stupid. His idea is as valid as yours. It's completely plausible that the CIA doesn't really care about MMA fighting and only needs the fight to cover something else. Maybe it's time you came off your high agent horse and saw Deeks for the skilled operator that he is." Sam was speechless as she continued, "I think you're pissed at him because he was able to fool you for a long time about his fighting skills and I think you should get over it and fast." Kensi glared at him before she stood up and left to find Deeks.
"What was that?" Sam asked the only team member still in the bullpen.
"I think it was Kensi laying into you about how you just treated Deeks." Callen let him know. "In fact, I think you and Deeks have some issues." Before he could continue his office phone rang.
Sam sat at his desk baffled by everyone's attitude about what he said to Deeks. He replayed it and decided it might have been a bit harsh but not any worse than some of the stuff he had previously joked to Deeks about. He was trying to work through this apparent problem when Callen interrupted his thoughts.
"Come on, we got a lead on the Bailey Case." Callen grabbed the information he needed from his desk and they headed out of the mission.