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Phase 27: Victory, you say?

=RK=

Part 5

=RK=

GAR HQ

Coruscant

It was time for another one of the countless and often endless meetings General Telar Valentra had to endure ever since the war began. The mere fact that most of them were important, if not downright vital, didn't make them any easier to endure.

This time around, he sat with a small, exalted company. There weren't many people on Coruscant who knew the truth about Sheev Palpatine. Granted, many across the galaxy did believe that the lamented Chancellor might have been up to no good. Those people were predominately concentrated either within Separatist space or the various secessionist enclaves that split with the Republic over the preceding months.

It was a simple fact that made the few people sitting in the small and very secure briefing room different from the countless souls all around the galaxy. They didn't suspect, neither did have to believe in Palpatine's possible flaws or even treachery.

They knew, even if they couldn't exactly prove it in a fair court of law. They knew that the beloved and now very dead former Chancellor had been possibly the greatest traitor in the history of the Republic, right up there with the Jedi who assassinated him and all but signed the Republic's death sentence.

This knowledge made them privy to some of the highest classified documents the Republic had. That in turn, made most of this small cabal invaluable in analyzing intelligence. More importantly, they were among the few who might be able to see the full picture while trying to untangle the unholy net of treason, incompetence, and enemy action that was the smoking remains of the Republic's Intelligence services.

Among the many agencies directed to gather and analyze data, before acting on it if ordered to, only the new Republic Intelligence Agency, the Military Intelligence arm of the Grand Army, remained more or less loyal after the failed Jedi Coup. Every other agency had high ranking officers go rogue, sometimes including their directors. Many among the rank and file who remained were not to be trusted anytime soon or ever. Every piece of intelligence provided by those organizations had to be investigated, double and triple checked to verify if it was true, then the context in which it had been presented had to be verified too.

No one was to be trusted, and that was yet another factor that contributed to the Republic's current state.

A grim smile briefly flickered over Valentra's face. Even in his wildest dreams, the Zabrak hadn't guessed he might find himself as a part of such a cabal, much less leading a part of it.

To his right sat Director Jack, one of the older Clones in service and the single high ranked member of the Republic Intelligence services to be extended a modicum of trust. Jerjerrod, Valentra's de-facto XO, sat to his left, straight-backed and obviously uncomfortable to be here. A handful of analysts were present as well. They were all sworn to secrecy and at all times surrounded by trusted troops just in case.

"We're all here." Valentra began the meeting. The handful of others who could be trusted with this kind of information were unable to attend. Most of them in fact we're currently on the front, overseeing the largest offensive conducted by Republic forces in the past thousand years. While the success during the current campaign wasn't quite the turning point in the war everyone wanted it to be, it was going to ensure that barring an outright disaster, they would no longer be desperately fighting to survive.

That ironically had been the best-kept secret of the war so far. The primary reason most people didn't figure it out was the sheer disbelief of the possibility that the Confederacy could have overrun the Republic if it had been either luckier or had a better leadership at the start of the conflict.

No, that wasn't quite right. That was the party line for public consumption if or when the officers in charge of the GAR had to answer certain uncomfortable questions. The truth was scarier, and today, Valentra was about to learn it all, in terrible detail.

"I shall begin then." Jack smiled humorlessly. "It took us months, in part due to the compartmentalization we were forced to use. Nevertheless, we have the report you and General Kenobi required."

Well, there were two reports in fact. One for more or less, emphasis on less, public consumption. The same one which the Chancellor would officially read and if spread to those who needed to know. The second one was for those in the know, the Chancellor included.

"I'll summarize the important points. First, Status, size, and origin of the Confederate fleet. There is both good and bad news in that regard. The worst-case scenarios floated during our meetings after the failed coup generally holds across the board. My colleagues either willfully disregarded important data, outright disbelieved it, or were part of the problem long before the war began. The silver lining here is that the Confederacy's available industrial capacity should be less than the doomsday scenarios portrayed."

"That isn't saying much." Valentra grimaced. Jack already apprised him about the first part of the report – the CIS navy's estimated size, an estimation done by competent reasonably trustworthy people this time, backed by combat data and analysis of captured intelligence.

The sheer size and scope of the Confederate fleet at the beginning of the war had been stunning. Considering that both Grievous and Dooku were reasonably competent, the fact that the Separatists didn't win the war in short order and instead wasted valuable time and assets against strategically insignificant targets gave credence to the belief that Palpatine and Dooku instigated the war as a means to an end. As a sham.

Then they lost control of the monster they created, leaving Valentra, Veil, Kenobi, and many others to pick up the pieces.

"We're as certain as possible without feet on the ground and access to certain Confederate archives, that the Separatists have been building up their fleet for decades." Jack continued.

That was mixed news. On one hand, if true, it meant that the worst-case estimates for enemy industrial capacity were not true. That by itself was a source of great relief for Valentra. He was one of the relatively few people intimately familiar with the industrial capacity of the Republic and how much the war crippled it already. Fortunately, all indications pointed at the Separatists being unable to sustain their crushing numerical superiority. In fact, the current campaign was doing a great job of addressing said issue.

"As far as we're aware, the core of the Separatist industry was built in direct response of the Republic comprehensively dismantling its military arm and reducing it just to the Juridical Forces. Those were unable to maintain a credible presence beyond the Mid Rim, resulting in an upsurge of piracy all over the farther reaches of the Mid and Outer Rim. As a response, many local powers, often backed by elements of the Trade Federation, Techno Union, and the Banking Clans began expanding their existing infrastructure, shipyards, and standing fleets. This turn of events was directly financed by the aforementioned parties to protect their commercial interests in the region."

"And no one noticed?" Jerjerrod exclaimed.

"Intelligence data was ignored or dismissed. As you should know very well by now, over ninety percent of intelligence resources and personnel were concentrated within the Core." Jack calmly explained. "I've got a very long list with details as to the reasons why. Most are centered around the disbelief that anything in the Outer Rim could pose a credible threat. In fact, that militarization was used as a justification to kill attempts to bring a Republic military back. After all, when even the Outer Rim's backward worlds could keep themselves safe, what was the point?" The Clone said in clear exasperation.

"We're drifting beside the point. The summary now, we'll go over details later." Telar cleared his throat.

"As you wish, sir." Jack continued. "The trend continued and only accelerated after the Naboo Crisis. Our best estimates based on available data is that only between ten to twenty-five percent of most Confederate aligned Outer Rim world navies were crewed by the locals. The rest of the crews were Trade Federation or Techno Union supplied droids. The same is true for a large portion of the small local trade fleets. Further, we estimate the hulls available to various Outer Rim based entities, government and private alike, were at least an order of magnitude beyond anything officially reported and believed. In part, this might have been due to various taxes and tariff evasion schemes, at least before the buildup towards the Confederacy being a thing began."

"Let me guess. Those ships with organic crews are now local System Defense navies and keep a minimal level of commerce ongoing." Jerjerrod concluded.

"That's true sir. While on record the droid operated ships might have been owned by local entities, they couldn't afford to either build or maintain that many of them. The usual suspects could and when Confederacy began a thing, they drafted those ships as a part of their navy. What's more, we currently believe that at least technically, the Confederacy did comply with the mandates to disarm or at least greatly reduce the armament on their trade fleets. It's just that, those weapons were immediately sold and installed on ships belonging to local defense forces all over the Outer Rim."

"And no one noticed a thing?" Valentra found that hard to believe.

"Oh, it was noticed, at least in part. Many bribes and favors were exchanged to bury it all. The intelligence leaked by Chancellor Palpatine after his murder did implicate several Senators and whole governments in the Core complicit with that particular mess." Jack explained.

"What does that mean in practical terms? How much industry does the Confederacy have available?"

"I must stress this is an estimate." Jack began. "Taking into account all the important factors, the best estimate my agency has is that we currently have a rough effective parity. We have larger military and civilian industries. However, they are crippled by a lack of resources and the fragmentation of the Republic. We're reasonably sure that your office's general figures are correct. The CIS would reach a relative peak in production and military power within a year. If we survive the onslaught without losing a substantial amount of industry, we'll be slowly gaining an advantage and outbuilding them. Within twenty to thirty-six months, we should be in a position both to hold our territory, secessionist enclaves included, and begin major offensives without risking a military defeat if they fail."

"That's all and good. However, it doesn't cover the political side of the equation." Valentra noted. "Next point of order?"

=RK=

Part 6

=RK=

GAR HQ

Coruscant

"The status of our intelligence assets is the next point of order." Jack scowled at that. "To put it bluntly, we're kriffed in this sphere. Virtually all remaining loyalist agents are suspect and to be watched. This is straining our already crippled manpower even further. We have to double and triple-check beyond normal verification virtually everything not sourced directly from my Military Intelligence people. On top of that, we're now virtually blind in the foreign diplomatic and economic intelligence fronts. The same is true in many cases domestically as well."

"Then there are the Bothans." Jerjerrod pipped up.

"They've been hailed as possessing the best spy network in the Galaxy for a very long time and with good reason. The destruction of Bothawui partially crippled their operations, however, the obvious downside is that now all their agents and assets are to be considered hostile." Jack spoke impassively. "My people simply lack the assets and personnel to deal with everything on my plate. My recommendation is to rebuild our intelligence capabilities from the ground up, using fresh properly vetted people. For not military intelligence, I recommend drawing people from the Diplomatic Corps and the various ministries overseeing the economy and taxation. Eventually, those assets would reform into a proper successor to the Senate Intelligence Service. Ideally, at best my people would take permanent responsibility for the former ONI. We've had to build up the capability to do their job after all, and it does often intersect with our missions and responsibilities."

"I'll raise your points and suggestions when briefing the Chancellor later today. Authorizing the full restructuring of our intelligence service is going to be a political call." Valentra made sure that everyone was on the same page on that particular point.

"Good. With that out of the way, I'll go over the newest developments my people discovered. First, we've been able to operate effectively only in the parts of the Northern and Eastern galactic quadrants. Reconnaissance probes and information gathered from raiding battle groups confirms the Confederacy has been using Mandalore as a testing ground for all kinds of new weapons. We also have indications that there is a relatively large enemy battle fleet laying low in the region."

"It's a trap for General Veil. He'll have to relieve Mandalore sooner or later." Valentra noted.

"We'll have to retake Mandalore and push the Separatists a few systems back at least to properly secure the front after Operation Stardust." Jerjerrod pointed out. "Control of Mandalore and most of the Mandalorian sector means that the enemy is too close to comfort to critical choke-points."

That was old news. Ideally, the Republic would have had the free assets to push back the front to the now devastated zone from before the CIS grand offensive. In practical terms, that would mean liberating most if not all loyalist worlds in the region as well. Unfortunately, politics among other factors meant no one could gather enough forces to relieve Mandalore. Of course, doing securing lost space in that section of the galaxy would require direct assault on at least twelve choke-points, not to mention fighting for and recapturing hundreds of worlds.

That was the optimistic scenario too. Needless to say, with the Core under threat, no one with the means to properly reinforce that sector would spare a meaningful number of ships and ground forces.

"On a different note, we finally received scraps of data from a few of our units cut off deep behind enemy lines. They've used smugglers or masked as such to bring us news. It's confirmed that the Confederacy has properly secured the Northern and Eastern fringes of the galaxy. While there were a handful of local and GAR raiding units still active when the messages headed our way, the odds of their survival until now are remote. We have confirmation that Mon Calamari and all loyalist in their corner of space have fallen. It's unconfirmed at this point, however, there were indications that the Mon Calamari managed to execute a break-out sacrificing most of their surviving fleet. A task force allegedly carrying the last of their leadership and other assorted VIPs might have gotten away cleanly and headed for Hutt Space."

"That would be their only credible option." Telar nodded. "Now that we have a secure link with Hutt Space it might be for the best if we sent feelers and reconnaissance vessels out there. Who knows what might be hiding out there."

"My thoughts exactly. I'll send the relevant orders after this meeting concludes." Jack happily agreed. "Next order of business. The Jedi. The so-called ORR group continues acting in conjunction with the Confederacy. We have had no new data on their operations since Kuat. Our homegrown trouble children on the other hand…" Jack trailed off and grimaced. "While local security forces continue to scour Coruscant, we're pretty sure most of them got away thanks to the traitors. Currently, we have no credible information on their movement or goals, beyond the obvious. On a brighter note, a small number of Jedi Officers who surrendered peacefully have been cleared for duty or in the process of being cleared. General Ayala Secura is currently the most notable example."

"Most of them would become training cadre for whatever organization replaces the now outlawed Jedi Order. Keep watching the loyalists just in case. That said, most of them are unlikely to return to the front anytime soon if ever." Telar explained.

"I see. Those were the high points of the summary. Now outside of the report. Well, I won't mince words. Speaking about the intelligence side of the war, I can confirm we're kriffed in a way no one would enjoy." Jack nodded at the uneasy analysts sitting nearby. "Working on the assumption that Palpatine was no good as far back as the Naboo Affair if not before it began…" The Clone rubbed his forehead. "We've been compromised for at least a decade if not longer, both from the ground up and from the top. While I do not doubt that there are many actual loyalists within our intelligence services, we can't trust them as far as I can throw a Star Destroyer. Further, we're operating on the assumption that our information infrastructure has been compromised thoroughly, and preliminary reports lend credence to said assumption. Palpatine rigged everything in order to ensure a Separatist victory if it served his purposes. Unfortunately, he might have been a bit too successful for our tastes."

"If he got himself exposed you mean," Jerjerrod interjected. "He had to do it that way. If we had a couple of years to prepare for the war, the Separatists would have been on the defensive from day one, damn it!"

"In that case, they wouldn't have been the credible threat he needed to build his Empire," Telar said.

"You mean the same Empire we're now trying to build to survive against the monster he created?" Jerjerrod snapped, then he shook his head. "Sorry about that."

"The same Empire we're trying to build to ensure various local governments won't kriff everything up just like they did with the Republic." Telar smiled bitterly. "You haven't seen what the Chancellor has to deal with daily. We need to end this war and clean up the house before it's too late."

The mere fact that he could talk about it freely here, even if the place was one of the most secure on Coruscant, told volumes about how much the support for the old order had deteriorated over the past few months.

=RK=

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