Prompt: Mastermind, from goodpenmanship

A/N: This very much got away from me. I love writing Mycroft and I have a thing for royal history...and he would have been involved in some very interesting royal history. So I indulged myself.

Lots of discussion about the British, German, and especially, Russian royal history ahead.


Mycroft Holmes was not given to surprise.

In fact, he was surprised only twice in his life - once, when seven-year-old Sherlock lunged out from behind a door with a rapier that tore a hole in his best jacket, and again, when twenty year old Sherlock appeared in the Diogenes Club without warning, announcing that he had left university with his degree unfinished and intended to set himself up as a consulting detective.

Mycroft had learned his lesson after that, and had placed Sherlock under a light watch, mostly to gauge how easily Sherlock could throw off the well-trained government agents.

However ridiculous he thought this consulting detective business was, it did not escape his notice that having an agent with Sherlock's unique combination of abilities might very well come in useful one day, and while Sherlock was not exactly conventional in any of his approaches, he was certainly trustworthy.

Mycroft had also learned his lesson about trusting anyone else. It wasn't a matter of character, really, but of intelligence. Few could see what he could, and Sherlock was one of those few.

Thankfully, though, Sherlock had no interest in politics or business. Mycroft did not enjoy competition, being so unused to anyone who was actually capable of competing with him.

All this to say that when a hubbub began out in the secretarial pool early in 1881, Mycroft stopped his meeting with the Home Secretary (entirely unofficial and not on any schedule) to quietly remark, "I wonder if it was the Tsar or one of his brothers?"

"What?" The Home Secretary asked, looking thrown, when one of the secretaries burst in.

"Is it the Tsar?" Mycroft asked.

The young man blinked. "Why, yes, sir. Tsar Alexander was murdered this afternoon while he was in his carriage. A bomb, sir, or two of them. Reports vary."

"Hmm. It was Narodnaya Volya, then," Mycroft mused. "The other assassination plots we were aware of were not nearly so far along. Not as sophisticated either - poison smuggled in by a servant, that sort of thing. Only Narodnaya Volya had such a well-thought out plan."

The Home Secretary and the young man stared at him. "Well, it was obvious to anyone who had access to the group's financial records," Mycroft said. It was a pity, really. His operatives inside Narodnaya Volya had been feeding the financial reports back for years, but the other part of their job was to quietly shift the group's thinking away from assassination. Obviously, they had failed.

Britain wanted a liberal-minded ruler, like Alexander II, the Liberator, on the Russian throne. His son…well, that was an altogether different matter. "I need to go see the Prime Minister," Mycroft said, getting up.

No one remarked that no one went to see the Prime Minister, they were summoned. But when Mycroft arrived at Downing Street, he found the Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary waiting for him. "You knew?" Disraeli asked without preamble.

"Immediately," Mycroft said. "I apologize that we were unable to prevent this. My agents reported that they found it difficult to influence the group's thinking in the way that we wished." This had not surprised him; in fact, he had calculated that they only had a 38% chance of succeeding, with the political situation in Russia being what it was.

He had told that to the Foreign Secretary at the time, and now the man was staring at him in anger. "Well? What are we to do now? The new one is completely different!"

Mycroft knew that. The Tsarevitch, Alexander, now Alexander III, was utterly unlike his father. Stern, reactionary and convinced of the rightness of absolute rule. "We had not expected to have to deal with him for another twenty years, when his thinking might have changed," Disraeli said.

"It would not have," Mycroft said. "The beliefs forged in youth remain with a man forever. Though now, certainly he will be even more inclined to harshness. He has now seen what his father's reforms got him - assassination."

Disraeli sighed. "Her Majesty may not like Russia, but we're going to need a strong ally in the East against the Kaiser. Alexander was tried and tested."

"Unless the Princess Royal succeeds in her mission," the Foreign Secretary reminded them.

Mycroft suppressed a sigh. He had argued against the marriage of the Queen's eldest daughter to the heir of the new German throne. Kaiser Wilhelm was strict, militaristic, and the very antithesis of a modern ruler, and Mycroft doubted whether he would allow his British daughter-in-law to influence anything. Particularly after the disastrous birth of the second in line to the throne.

But that was a problem for the future, hopefully the far future, and for the moment Mycroft set it aside. Instead, he shuddered to think of the situation on the world stage with two such similar men as Kaiser Wilhelm and Alexander III in charge of the two strongest states in Eastern Europe. It was surely a recipe for a war, and an explosive one.

Though perhaps not. At least, not while Victoria lived. The great mob of royal children and grandchildren had their own petty squabbles, but they all were all cowed by the diminutive figure on the British throne, long may she reign.

Not that Mycroft had any great love for the Widow of Windsor, prone to whims as she was, but he recognized that she was, in large part, keeping Europe from the war that had been looming in the future throughout his whole career. Smaller ones had come and gone, the Crimean War, the Franco-Prussian War, the endless campaigns in Africa, but no one dared break the larger peace for fear of the judgment that would come from Buckingham.

Then again, perhaps that was not for the best after all. Twenty years ago, such a war would have been harsh, now, it would be devastating.

In the future, Mycroft calculated, this almost certain war would be nothing short of catastrophic, with years of pent-up resentments and corresponding advances in military technology. It only remained to be seen whether the assassination brought the war closer or pushed it farther away.

"Well?" the Foreign Secretary asked. "What are we to do?"

Mycroft put aside all the thoughts of the future. For now, the main concern was the death of the Tsar. "Well, we shall make overtures and ensure that the new Tsar knows he has our support," he said. "As you say, we shall need an ally and I am sure the new Tsar does not wish for any foreign conflicts while he takes over and attempts to calm the political situation in Russia."

"You sound doubtful," Disraeli said.

"Well, I doubt that his reaction will be measured. More of the same - executions, prison sentences, harsh treatment of the lower classes. Everything that has led Russia to this situation in the first place," Mycroft said. He hid his distaste for it; not that he was unaware of the hypocrisy of Britain when judging how other countries treated their lower classes, but that it was so likely to backfire.

"You think we can lean on him, then, if necessary?" Disraeli pressed.

"I think we must cultivate an ally, for if we don't we will only cultivate an enemy, and that we cannot afford," Mycroft said. "Alexander's thinking is liable to be black and white; he will want to believe we are on his side." Such men were easily made to believe what they wished to see. "And someday, his son will be easily led by those his father trusted."

The boy was only twelve. Yet Mycroft's spies had painted a damning portrait of a child cowed by his larger-than-life father, one so uncurious and diffident that his decisions could easily be made for him. Better for Britain that they establish themselves as a trustworthy ally.

"But lean on…no," Mycroft finished. "The harsh reaction to the assassination will only spur the revolutionary groups on. I doubt very much that Alexander II will be the only Russian Tsar assassinated. In fact, I expect that before forty years are out, the next group of ministers will be discussing the very same event, and only the name of the Tsar will be different."

Or it might not be. But Mycroft had a hunch, and his hunches were very rarely wrong, that the strong-willed Alexander III would not find himself the victim of an assassination, if only because his oppression was likely to work for a time.

The diffident and indecisive Nicholas, however…

Mycroft filed away the deadline he had given himself and returned to his office, telling Disraeli only to make sure Victoria did not get any ideas about marrying one of her many grandchildren into the Russian royal family.

Best not to get too close.


A/N: Lots of notes here

Tsar Alexander II was assassinated in March of 1881, by a revolutionary group called Narodnaya Volya (The People's Voice). They threw two bombs into his carriage on his way back to the Winter Palace. He was, as Russian Tsars go, rather liberal, and had freed the serfs in 1861. That didn't save him.

Benjamin Disraeli was Prime Minister of Britain until April of 1881.

Tsar Alexander III was completely the opposite of his father, and believed wholeheartedly in absolute rule. Mycroft is right that he would not be assassinated (though an attempt was made on his and his family's lives, by blowing up the royal family's train. The train roof did collapse, but the Tsar, an incredibly large and strong man, held it up himself to allow his children to escape before fleeing himself).

The Kaiser in this story refers to Wilhelm I, who was harsh and militaristic and ruled until 1888. Queen Victoria's eldest daughter was married to his son, Frederick, in the hope that she would be able to influence Germany toward a more liberal, constitutional monarchy. Her husband only ruled for less than a year, having come to the throne already diagnosed with terminal cancer. The disastrous birth is that of Wilhelm II - without going into detail the birth was horribly traumatic for her, and nearly resulted in the death of the infant. As it was, the birth left the future Wilhelm II with a left arm so severely damaged he could never use it, among other disabilities.

Finally, Alexander III's son is Nicholas II, or will be. The characterization provided here to Mycroft by his spies is accurate, as Nicholas's personal failings are well documented as Tsar. While Alexander did not find himself the victim of an assassination, Nicholas, of course, will, thirty-seven years after this story takes place. So Mycroft's prediction is accurate. Though Disraeli will not listen to him regarding not marrying any of Victoria's grandchildren into the Russian royal family - Nicholas's wife Alexandra was Victoria's granddaughter.