ADVENT: History
The Rise of the Sovereign African States
"If this had happened at any other time, it would have been the story of the year. However, compared to everything else going on, it was just another day."
- ADVENT Intelligence Director Elizabeth Falka
Excerpt from the official announcement of the formation of the Sovereign African States
Speaker identified as President Ndulue Okon of Nigeria
"Over the past months we have seen the depths those known as ADVENT will sink in order to retain their power. They are ones who believe themselves above others; fanatics who seek to impose their will on those who are not like them. Their power is in intimidation and fear, using the threat of aliens as an excuse to perform their actions. A convenient justification that takes advantage of those relying on them for safety."
"They turned their weapons to the Middle East, subjecting it to their laws and the world looked on. Then they turned to Canada; punishing them for having the gall to stand in opposition to ADVENT's supposed authority. ADVENT will not stop until the world is under their control, one way or another."
"This is not mere speculation, but from the mouths of their own soldiers and marshals who realized the leaders they are serving are mere tyrants. ADVENT does not negotiate; they only demand and use the threat of force to make their targets comply. They have scared China and transformed the country from one who stood in opposition to a beaten dog, willing to cower in their corner of the world to avoid any consequences. They succumbed to fear."
"We will do no such thing."
"Our continent has been exploited for centuries, ever since the European colonialists, and even today from the Western countries who only seek to strip us of our wealth and resources. Africa has been divided, squabbled over, and taken advantage of for too long. ADVENT will not pay the individual country any mind, but those who are united…they will perhaps think twice."
"We are four countries, who have come together with the goal of returning African influence to the global stage, not influenced by others, but fully independent from the Asian and ADVENT nations. The continent must rally behind us in order to ensure our continuous stability. ADVENT will not ignore us forever."
"But united, we can make them hesitate and we can prepare. We can grow and thrive in a way the world has not been seen in decades. There is no choice here. The world has changed, and those listening now must prepare to adapt to the New World, or they will die in the Old one."
Macula,
Since this is relevant to your future area of operations, I would assume you would wish to be appraised of the recent developments in the African sphere of Earth, or as you might be more familiar with, Helsa Betos's area of operations. If you do still plan to continue to hold off and wait for the situation there to develop, I would advise letting some additional time pass as there have been major developments since initially identifying Betos in the region.
The first and most relevant development is that Betos has actually managed to get several important African nations to enter into what appears to be a legitimate consolidation of regional power. Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon are all united as the now-recognized "Sovereign African States". Details about how this is going to affect citizenship, laws, treaties, and international relations are still unknown, and so far the main players of this unification are keeping things tightly under wraps.
However, there are already major ramifications within the governments of these nations. Several prominent members of the Nigerian government have been arrested, and the entirety of Chad's government has been purged, with the military taking control of all major cities. Cameroon's situation is similar to Nigeria's, but most of the government is still intact and even held a public (if symbolic) vote on the matter which massed unanimously.
Unanimously, I presume, because the ones who would have gone against it were arrested beforehand.
Niger's situation is slightly more complicated, as while on paper it is indeed a semi-democratic country, in practice a large part of the government is composed of military figures. The entire country has undergone multiple coups within decades, and the government is a reflection of their military focus of maintaining power. So as a result, the government has actually been publically accepting of the alliance.
What is extremely clear is that, ironically, it appears to have undergone the same process of formation ADVENT did. Many of the negotiations were high-level, with most not even being aware of their existence beforehand. At this point it is unknown if the respective heads of these countries were the only ones the offer was extended to (From President Okon, where the negotiations took place) or if it was offered to others who simply didn't come.
However, the newly formed SAS is clearly relying on military power to ensure their hold over their countries until the finer details of the upcoming SAS Constitution are determined. Given that the heads of state generally have close ties to military leaders, this is almost assured. In addition, all member nations of the SAS have rendered all non-African trade agreements and treaties null and void, and have officially requested the review of all inter-continental documents.
To make the situation more complicated, there are multiple foreign companies working in the continent, and the SAS has taken over every single foreign business, particularly those in agriculture and mining, presumably to use them themselves. While it is not a hostage situation per-se, the SAS has made it very clear that the equipment is not being returned and the people won't be released until they teach the operations to SAS workers.
As of yet, the SAS has so far been officially recognized by the European Union, and Argentina. No one else, including China or ADVENT, has currently made any public statement. Considering that this does not look dissimilar to a large military coup, I would expect that ADVENT wants to see if this actually materializes into anything before addressing it one way or another.
After looking through the profiles of these leaders, combined with Betos, I would expect that this has a very good chance of stabilizing, giving you an ample range of uses for it, and being a particularly valuable proxy in what is likely to become another front in this war. I would also expect that Betos is likely to not agree with some policy decisions these men will make, which is another means of using her. I am impressed she managed to get them to work together in the first place, though I doubt she fully considered what the results of that would entail.
Aside from standing against ADVENT, the current goals of the SAS are unknown. Given that Betos is still with them, I would expect they will begin producing gauss-level weaponry and perhaps advanced armor (For Humans). For the moment though, I would expect them to stabilize their own states before expanding outward.
I expect that when that is settled, ADVENT will make its own move.
- Zar'Chon'ravarian'vitiary
Addendum – Macula: Useful information. Although these leaders are shortsighted fools to completely burn their bridges so quickly. Perhaps they have some plan, but based on what I have seen, they do not and will enjoy maybe several months before ADVENT or China ensures their country is sanctioned to a degree where they are crippled.
But they have little to fear. The Humans simply need to be used the right way, and I will intervene long before it reaches that point.
I am quite looking forward to this.
ADVENT Intelligence Report 099D
Operation: Defecit Fuit Proditor (Ongoing)
Author: ADVENT Intelligence Director Elizabeth Falka
Recipients: Chancellor Saudia Vyandar, Minister of ADVENT Public Relations Kyong Suk-Chul, Chief Diplomat Firdaus Hassan, Commander Laura Christiaens
Well, it does appear that the work of the traitor has actually managed to accomplish something. It is not what could be considered an issue yet, and frankly, it never will be even if she turns over schematics for our equipment. Betos defected before the development of SHIVs, Shieldbearer armor, and has no idea about the PRIEST Program, or utilizing elerium correctly. Nearly everything she has is outdated, and while it will (at worst) make whoever she shares it with potentially on the level of China, they do not have the experience or skill to use it correctly.
If nothing else, this is interesting to watch unfold. Ignoring their amusing defiance of us, the so-called Sovereign African States seem very much eager to start completely fresh, and, ironically, are as ruthless as we can be in order to make it happen. I will break this down into several sections so you can be appraised of exactly what we are dealing with here.
It is not impressive, but assuming they manage to establish a functioning government, it will make it easier to co-opt when they decide to inevitably interfere in our own work. As it is, their computer security is laughable, and we should have complete access to all of their plans going forward. Even Betos's specialists will be unlikely to detect it.
In the meantime, let them think we're ignoring them. If they want to try and unify the continent, I say we let them try. It will let us focus on the aliens and keep them from getting any ideas since they'll have to contend with the other countries who might not like the idea of a united Africa.
Some information about the current members of the Sovereign African States:
Member nations: Nigeria (President Ndulue Okon), Niger (President Ezeudo Ifekristi), Cameroon (President Atem Esaba), Chad (President Babikr Kone). Also note that several do have Prime Minister components, but these heads of state are the architects behind this development.
Threat of the Sovereign African States:
Low.
The militaries of African countries have always been smaller, weaker, and less powerful than ones in developed countries, and these are no exception. The armies range from competent to below-average, but none are even remotely exceptional. Currently identified military gear is entire generations out of date, and is largely the result of arms deals from America, China, and Russia.
The militaries are largely poorly equipped and trained to fight in standard battles, as a result of dealing with rebel groups and terrorists, and would be better compared to a guerilla force, of which they would then have some skill. I would expect Betos to attempt to train their militaries in a more conventional way, or she might try to hone their guerilla inclinations.
Best case scenario for the SAS, they manage to fully upgrade their weaponry and armor to first-generation ADVENT gear. That would put them on a comparable threat to China, though they still lack MDUs, a moderate air force, or a navy of any kind. This is not including the upcoming PRIESTs or our own MELD enhanced soldiers.
Their science and engineering facilities are also subpar, meaning that even if they could replicate our equipment, I would not expect them to be able to reverse-engineer it, and contracting it would take more time than our own facilities. I am having my agents monitoring if anyone important is supplying them. We're expecting some alliances with other African nations, but both the EU and China have been put on notice to cease and desist any potential deals.
Since they know this is grounds for annexation, I expect they will not interfere.
To be brutally honest, any threat the SAS poses, or ever will pose, to us, will die the moment the first PRIEST is deployed. I have at least one agent monitoring the SAS leaders and Betos at all times, and upon my order they could take them out and vanish. They are one Lancer operation away from their military being destroyed.
You do not need to worry about the SAS, Chancellor. They are well under control.
Economic situation of the Sovereign African States:
To be determined, I believe is the fairest assessment I can give right now, simply because the SAS is too new and has made too many major changes in a short amount of time to fully assess the economic impact. I will have Jasmine give you a full breakdown of the economic situation of the SAS once it stabilizes, since her knowledge there is much better than my own.
However, here is what has happened:
The Sovereign African States have rendered all previous treaties, trade deals, or any other kind of agreement with a non-African country completely null and void. They are effectively back to square one, and seem completely fine with that. It is a bold move, since they rely on other nations far more than the inverse, but considering they have also moved to strengthen relations with other African nations, they must believe that these inter-continental states can provide what is needed without relying on overseas imports.
Next is that any foreign company has been taken over by military forces, and the SAS has confiscated all equipment and tools used. This appears to have directly targeted mining operations and factories, which I presume they intend to use for their own purposes. There is a lot of untapped wealth in Africa, so this is a risky move that just might literally pay off.
Third is that the military has begun going around and 'hiring' people by the hundreds and supposedly putting them to work. This seems to have directly targeted the poorest citizens of the nations, and we know for sure they are being worked in fields and presumably mines and factories later on.
Indications are also that they are being compensated in some form, so it is not as bad as it could be. It's not dissimilar to our own programs regarding lower-class citizens. But the point is that the SAS has a much larger workforce than expected, and it is expected to grow. The implications of all of this will likely not be seen for some time.
Members of the Sovereign African States:
Knowing the countries involved, and their leaders, will likely allow us to make some predictions as to what can be expected for this new regional power moving forward. Considering that corruption, poverty, and violence are prevailing issues in the continent as a whole, a radical movement such as this might not be seen as a bad thing. What will determine that is what the SAS plans for the rest of Africa.
Judging from the figures involved, I doubt it will be peaceful.
Cameroon: This would be considered one of the most 'stable' African nations, and is one of the most ethnically diverse in the continent. Of all the members, it is somewhat odd that this one is on the list, but I suppose that they would also see the potential need to ally as opposed to remaining divided. There is very little here historically that is relevant, aside from the abnormal stability of the country.
President Atem Esaba: President Esaba is the least dangerous of any of the leaders, and if anything, will be the stabilizing force in the leadership. He isn't military, didn't grow up rich, is generally peaceful and prefers negotiation. As a result he gets along well with most national leaders, though at the same time doesn't really stick to one side or another.
The greatest weakness he has is that he will likely go along with a proposal as long as enough people are agreeing to it. His supposed neutrality could be interpreted as simply currying favor with the other party. Ultimately, this means that he could very well end up being an empty puppet or used as the public face of the SAS to appease foreign nations, since he is so inoffensive.
The only reason I don't write him off as irrelevant is because of Betos. Regardless of her actions, she does possess an abnormally strong sense of morality. I can see her attempting to impress that on him.
Chad: Chad is known as one of, if not the most corrupt nation in the world, and that has not changed for a long time. The entire country is unstable, threatened by rebels and the notorious Boko Haram terrorist organization, and the government has spent a good amount of time fighting its own citizens to maintain stability instead of focusing elsewhere.
Really, the only thing that has even kept them remotely in line is the continued empty threats of the UN, and more importantly, the agreements they had with countries like America. They are frequently accused of rigging elections and taking bribes, or accepting other lucrative deals in exchange for legislative favors.
The fact that the entire Chad government was purged upon announcement of the SAS is not something to be mourned, but also assuming that President Kone is somehow immune to this corruption is sadly very incorrect. You don't get to be president of this hellhole without being just as bad as your competition.
President Babikr Kone: Kone is likely the one we need to watch the most, since out of all the heads of the SAS, he is competent, diplomatic, and ruthless. I am honestly surprised he even took the risk here considering that not only was he one of the most powerful men in Chad, but also one of the wealthiest.
He appeared to come out of nowhere, but clearly had some kind of backing, and rumors point to him using a small rebel group to take out political opponents of his, and then he subsequently brought the military down on them. He's spent decades forging both regional and international connections from highly suspect sources, and finally leveraged that towards taking the presidency where he won with an 83% vote in favor.
Amusingly enough, he's never actually denied that the voting was rigged.
During this time, he'd also established very good connections with the military, and he has been linked to various black market businesses that appear to be instrumental in this. He is linked to both prostitution and slaving rings, though for the latter he's only bought from, and doesn't actually run. Which isn't that much better.
The point is that the only reason someone like Kone would actually agree to this is because he believes he will become wealthier and more influential this way, and as of right now, he seems to be right. He doesn't care about corruption or crime, unless it is someone else doing it. He has a well-documented hatred of Boko Haram, and it isn't because they kill and rape his citizens; it's because they act against him.
What also works in his favor is that he's a fairly mild-mannered and well-spoken man, who doesn't yell or break out into fits of anger. He'll smile and agree during a talk, but if he doesn't like what you say, he'll order some of his goons to kill you when you walk home. I am confident in predicting that he's going to demand a large role in constructing legislation for the SAS, and that is honestly terrifying.
While I stand by my words that we should not interfere yet, I would not be opposed to this man suffering an accident. Better yet, a one-way trip to the Experimentation Labs.
Nigeria: This is one of the larger and well-developed nations in Africa, and easily the most developed within the SAS itself. Nigeria was actually one of the original Council Nations and directly funded the initial XCOM project. They have a fairly strong military for the region, although they use it mostly to battle terrorists and rebels.
But it is one of the more stable countries, and is likely going to be the 'capital' of the SAS as President Okon was the one who originally began the formation talks. It is not without its problems, especially slaving rings which are arguably more prevalent than the ones in Chad. With that said, I can see Nigeria actually cracking down on that once the military is fully united.
President Ndulue Okon: For some time there was some debate on why Betos had chosen Okon as her first choice for asylum, and that was answered by the revelation that Pratal Mox (Second in command officer) had a friendly relationship with him. Aside from that, there isn't a notable reason why he would get Betos's attention.
Nonetheless, Okon is a largely inoffensive individual, certainly better than Kone. He's not a weak puppet either like Esaba, but doesn't hold extreme stances and generally tries to get along with most leading diplomatic figures. With that said, he definitely holds highly racist views towards several ethnic groups, especially Libyans.
He is also someone who should be closely watched, because he is definitely the moderate of the group; one who likely will attempt diplomacy first, but will not have any issues using the military to achieve his goals. I suspect that legislature under him would be highly altered as well, and definitely not democratic.
Niger: It is unknown if this country is more unstable than Chad, as it is rather notorious for suffering multiple military coups in very short amounts of time. As a result there is a lot of uncontrolled violence not just from terrorist groups, but also multiple rebel factions and loyalists to previous governments.
Likely in an attempt to combat this, the most recent coup established a quasi-democracy where the President was chosen by a parliament, and there was heavy work by the Niger state to only allow parliament candidates they supported from even making it to the ballot. In theory, this is a civilian government. In practice, this country is now completely controlled by their military, and that is unlikely to change now.
President Ezeudo Ifekristi: The current President for Niger, and coincidentally former Minister of Defense for the Niger Armed Forces, President Ifekristi is exactly what you would expect for someone with no political experience and a military background being put into this position. He is highly crude, undiplomatic, and hates that he can't just make things happen instantly.
He does recognize at least the illusion of government, so he largely lets the parliament do what they want (Which usually aligns with his own goals since they are also largely military), while he focuses on the military. As a result it is one of the larger ones in the region, and one of the better trained.
Oddly enough, I would say that Niger is actually one of the safer countries to visit, since Ifekristi has a noted hate for criminals and rebels, and has taken extremely harsh measures in rooting them out. He supposedly took great pleasure in telling the UN to fuck off when they said that he shouldn't hang several suspected slavers in the capital, and that's one of the more merciful punishments he's written into the Niger constitution.
Ifekristi does like the idea of playing the hero of the 'common man', and a common (and unconfirmed) story is that he once shot someone who attempted to bribe him. That does play quite well with people, and did boost his approval rating. He's also very fit, an excellent shot, and from all accounts still a good tactician.
It will be especially interesting to see how he interacts with the others, especially Kone. Were the right information to come to light, I do not see it very difficult to turn the leadership against each other.
Future Response:
I've recommended no direct intervention yet, and until such a time as that arrives, that will not change. With that said, there is no point in doing nothing. There is no reason that we cannot work on establishing relations or convincing certain nations to join us, in particular Egypt and South Africa, both of whom are ones many in ADVENT have had contact with.
But in the end, the response is simple.
If they leave us alone, we leave them alone.
If they don't, we wipe them out.
Until then, we simply watch and wait.