Sovereign African States
History
The Expulsion of Keeper
"Well, what do you know. Betos actually stood up for her values."
"Think it's actually real?"
"Ha! No, but if she keeps it up, she might get her sentence bumped down to 'execution'."
- Two ADVENT soldiers, shortly after the publicized expulsion
SOVEREIGN AFRICAN STATES
FROM THE OFFICE OF GRAND MARSHAL HELSA BETOS
As of the events which have taken place throughout the past twelve hours, which include but are not limited to, indiscriminate orbital bombardment, incidental and targeted damage to critical civilian infrastructure, indiscriminate psionic attacks, and other overt and covert military action against civilian targets, the Sovereign African States unequivocally condemns these attacks.
The actions undertaken are in direct contravention of stated doctrine as originally directed by the Battlemaster of the Ethereal Collective, and a violation of the terms of warfare agreed upon by both the Sovereign African States, and the Ethereal Collective. While the Sovereign African States acknowledge the impossibility of civilian casualties during the course of warfare, it does not give license for indiscriminate extermination.
The Sovereign African States specifically condemns Patricia Trask, Harbinger of the Imperator, for her indiscriminate terror attacks against civilian targets worldwide. There is no justification outside of the propagation of terror, and we call upon the Battlemaster of the Ethereal Collective, as well as other like-minded military and civilian leaders of the Ethereal Collective in condemning these attacks and removing Patricia Trask from the field of combat, to be arrested, tried, and judged for actions outside the guidelines of warfare.
The Sovereign African States officially calls for restraint from both the Ethereal Collective, as well as ADVENT, in any planned response to these attacks, as escalation will lead to continued loss of civilian life and significant planetary damage, worsening living conditions worldwide. We call for an official condemnation and apology for this terrorist attack, and assurance that such actions will not be repeated in the future.
Until the Ethereal Collective has properly acknowledged to our satisfaction the grievances that have been raised, the Sovereign African States has formally expelled ranking Collective diplomats and military officials until such assurances have been given. This will not apply to low-ranking soldiers, and we have allowed specific officers to remain for organization and training.
We intend to make it clear that the Sovereign African States will not tolerate this behavior from ally and enemy alike, and have currently suspended active military operations in conjunction with Ethereal Collective forces until this dispute has been addressed. We remain in support of an alliance against ADVENT to determine the future of Humanity, but such a future will now and continue to be guided by Human intentions.
We expect this dispute to reach a decisive and lasting resolution.
- Grand Marshal Helsa Betos, of the Sovereign African States
CODEX transcript between Keeper and Ethereal Macula following the Expulsion of ranking Collective officials from the Sovereign African States:
[Macula]: "She ordered you to leave."
[Keeper]: "Effectively, yes."
[M]: "And you complied."
[K]: "Yes. I doubt she could have forced me, but there was little point escalating the situation."
[M]: "Noted. This reflects poorly on us. You should not have succumbed to the pressure."
[K]: "With respect, in that moment she was committed. I have little doubt that had I refused, she would have ordered her soldiers to act against us."
[M]: "She would have regretted it."
[K]: "Considering her reliance on us, she would have. But she was thinking emotionally, or at least dominated by such. I would prefer she see us as reasonable as opposed to an entity similar to ADVENT. We still gain more from having her firmly on our side, and she is a useful figurehead for gaining more Human support. If she is removed or negated, we will have little choice but to firmly seize control. The Humans here are not ready for that."
[M]: "Unfortunate. The Imperator will not be pleased with this development."
[K]: "Then perhaps he should reign in his trigger-happy Harbinger."
[M]: "Patricia was acting on a calculus that the SAS and Betos were firmly under our control. That is clearly no longer certain."
[K]: "If I had been consulted beforehand, I could have told you she would react in this manner."
[M]: "To this extent?"
[K]: "Unlikely, truthfully. I underestimated her moral conviction. I expected her to fold and accept a provided explanation similar to Beijing. She did not. That was not expected, but consistent with her profile."
[M]: "I suppose so. It was a risk with her. What of her subordinates, is there an applicable replacement?"
[K]: "Not with the degree of charisma, respect, and authority Betos commands. She is surrounding herself with like-minded individuals. Looking within her inner circle for a more pliable or ruthless entity is a fruitless task."
[M]: "Unfortunate, but not unexpected I suppose."
[K]: "This would be simpler if we could have controlled her from the start. That is the simplest solution."
[M]: "I will propose that as a solution, but the Battlemaster is unlikely to agree."
[K]: "Then we need to work with what we possess."
[M]: "Your suggestion?"
[K]: "We do not gain nothing from this. The SAS will gain some more legitimacy as the result of her 'independent actions'. The issue is now she will probably act as if she has more authority than is necessary. However, it is manageable."
[M]: "ADVENT is likely to retaliate violently. The SAS is a standing target of opportunity. They may solve this issue for us."
[K]: "She is not in danger of defecting. She is firmly against ADVENT. It is her attitude towards us which is at risk of changing."
[M]: "Then what is your solution?"
[K]: "That depends. The easiest solution is to do as she wants. Give our assurance that this won't happen again."
[M]: "This is a war against a Sovereign One and an expanding Humanity."
[K]: "She is unaware of the Sovereign."
[M]: "I know, and she will remain ignorant. Regardless, lying to her about what will happen is pointless. Nor will Patricia or the Imperator comply with such ludicrous demands."
[K]: "Then she must be properly motivated. ADVENT and XCOM are likely plotting attacks against her and the SAS."
[M]: "ADVENT has signaled their willingness to utilize nuclear weapons. The SAS is a prime target for retaliation. If we happen to leave a city with fewer defenses than usual, it may bait ADVENT into launching an attack."
[K]: "Plausible. But ADVENT would need a valid military reason to nuke a city. Civilian casualties are acceptable, they are not a goal of ADVENT doctrine."
[M]: "That can be arranged."
[K]: "I'll see what can be done in the meantime."
[M]: "She is also close to the one called Mox, yes?"
[K]: "They are friends, yes. We've classified him as a major influence."
[M]: "Good. His removal will weaken her moral resolve."
[K]: "Assassination?"
[M]: "Nothing so crude. He will simply volunteer to be on the front lines, and suffer an unfortunate death at the hands of ADVENT."
[K]: "I suggest a better idea – he is captured and interrogated by 'ADVENT'. We could happen to recover such evidence later. With him deceased, of course."
[M]: "A good approach. I will convey our intentions to the Imperator."
[K]: "In the meantime, what should we send to her?"
[M]: "Let her wait for a time. I have a feeling Patricia will want to speak to her. Personally."
Following one of the most widespread and sustained attacks against ADVENT, and Humanity as a whole, the operation which saw sustained orbital fire from identified Andromedon Cleanser Ships has caused significant reverberation within and throughout ADVENT. Chancellor Vyandar released a statement condemning the attack, stating that "The Collective continues to demonstrate their intent is not just to wage war, but to terrorize and frighten us into submission. Actions like these only strengthen our resolve, and we acknowledge this escalation, and will respond accordingly."
Speculation has grown more pronounced over the past twenty-four hours, as every major military and intelligence official has spoken to the press, with the same basic points concerning the escalation that will result from this. Each official made clear that ADVENT will not continue to take attacks against major installations and civilian infrastructure without striking back proportionally.
"It is very clear that Patricia Trask is becoming impatient," Commander Laura Christiaens said. "ADVENT has continued to endure despite facing overwhelming odds. It has been our ingenuity and spirit which has kept us alive, and she understands that we will endure long into this war. Instead of trying to beat us, she rages like a child and attacks the most vulnerable to make herself feel like she is accomplishing something."
Director Powell was similarly critical of Patricia. "She has adopted tactics more reminiscent of Isomnum than what the Battlemaster has employed thus far. I cannot speak to this becoming the prevailing strategy, but if so it signals a clear and dangerous escalation we are prepared to meet. We do not doubt the Imperator's resolve, nor that of his puppet. They should not doubt our own either."
XCOM could not be reached for comment.
The Congress of Nations has further signaled ADVENT's willingness to escalate, with passing the Nuclear Authorization Act, which grants ADVENT the approval of the Congress to launch a nuclear strike against targets of opportunity in response to equivalent attacks on ADVENT locations and cities.
While it has been noted by several critics that the bill is largely symbolic, as ADVENT High Command does not need congressional approval for utilizing weapons of mass destruction (though it requires a sign off from two other entities, including the Oversight Division, ADVENT Intelligence, or the Office of the Chancellor), it is nonetheless a signal that ADVENT is indicating with a unified voice their intent to escalate the conflict as the Collective has done.
Additionally, ADVENT High Command has officially designated all Psionic entities with Trask Levels of Leviathan or higher as weapons of mass destruction, and set forward new guidelines as for how and when they are to be used, as well as the ramifications of utilizing one against ADVENT.
Upon closer inspection, this revision appears geared towards giving a stronger legal basis for ADVENT to respond to the actions of Patricia and other Ethereal actors with equally devastating military force, up to and including nuclear weapons. It is another direct warning of escalation from the highest ranks of the ADVENT Military.
When asked if these regulations would apply to XCOM, Commander Christiaens responded with: "XCOM is bound to the same conventions as the Collective. However, we do not expect them to be deploying psions against us. If they do, we have far bigger concerns than deciding what specific regulation was violated."
One of the more notable developments as the result of the attack was the condemnation by the Sovereign African States, led by former Marshal Helsa Betos who deserted ADVENT following Operation Deus Vult and later allied with the Ethereal Collective. Her government strongly condemned the attack, releasing a statement and holding a press conference with African media on it.
Beyond the condemnation, the Sovereign African States have expelled a number of alien diplomats and military officials, indicating that this is the result of a long-standing rift that could not be ignored any longer. It is unknown why the Sovereign African States are taking such a hard line on this topic, but their actions are being watched closely across the world.
Helsa Betos has called on the Collective to cease their indiscriminate attacks, and also stated that ADVENT should avoid escalation to avoid additional loss of life, and damage to the planet. This was released after the Congress of Nations passed the Nuclear Authorization Act which was ratified by Chancellor Vyandar. Sources indicate that Betos is likely attempting to avoid being the target of nuclear retaliation, and that this may be out of self-preservation and not a true political schism.
When asked if the position of the Sovereign African States has affected their plans, Chancellor Vyandar answered with this: "We have little interest in the words of the traitor and her illegitimate state. Her faux outrage is far too late to seem anything more than opportunistic. This is not the first such attack allowed by the Collective, and it will not be the last. Her stance does not alter our calculus, and we will respond to these attacks with proportional strength."
- Article: ADVENT Signals Significant Escalation Following Worldwide Bombardment
ADVENT Intelligence Report 1801
Release to: The Office of the Chancellor; ADVENT High Command; the Congress of Nations
Subject: Current Posture of the Sovereign African States Post-Bombardment
OVERVIEW: Following the ceasing of bombardment as orchestrated by the Ethereal Collective Fleet (identified as primarily Cleanser Ships), the Sovereign African States released a statement condemning the attack, citing the indiscriminate nature of the attack and disproportionate effects on the civilian population as reasons for the condemnation.
Upon the publishing of this statement, ranking Collective diplomats and officials, including those primarily tied to the Ethereal Macula – specifically the Vitakarian known as "Keeper" were formally expelled from SAS territory, and their current status is unknown. We suspect they have been moved off-world and have been debriefed by their respective superiors.
Please note that low-ranking alien soldiers are unaffected, and are currently residing within SAS territory. However, all training and military operations have been suspended as the SAS awaits an expected response from the Ethereal Collective. They have also called for ADVENT to not escalate as a result of this attack.
SAS POLITICAL SIGNALING: We are taking the assumption in this section that the actions of Grand Marshal Betos are genuine and authentic. Assuming this is the case, this is an unprecedented signal of discontent within the highest echelons of SAS leadership. The expulsion of Collective officials indicate that this event was a catalyst and that there has been significant disagreement between the SAS and Ethereal Collective for weeks or months before now.
Grand Marshal Betos is possibly signaling a number of things with this statement. The first is to assert her independence from Ethereal oversight and authority. It is possible that Betos has felt that her authority has been supplanted or threatened by Collective officials, and is removing them to regain some degree of autonomy.
It is also signaling to potential allies in Africa that she is independent enough to perform significant actions such as these. Signals and Human intelligence have repeatedly confirmed that a significant reason why the SAS has not gathered more members was because many nations do not trust the autonomy and independence of the SAS, and will not willingly put themselves under alien authority. This action may sway a number of the remaining holdouts. We are monitoring the situation closely.
Based on the call for de-escalation from all sides, Betos has likely judged cities within the SAS to be targets of retaliation in response to this attack, and is signaling to ADVENT that she has no part in their planning and does not sanction these actions. Her statement will have no influence on military decisions made by ADVENT High Command or the Executive Branch. Please also note that this was not a call for dialogue or peace. The SAS remains a direct enemy of ADVENT.
Finally, this signals the political redlines that the SAS and Betos herself will not sanction or cross. These have always existed, but this is the first time we have witnessed consequences for one side breaking them. We have updated our strategy and calculus concerning the SAS accordingly.
SAS MILITARY POSTURE: Due to the suspension of all operations being conducted by Collective soldiers, we expect all aspects of the SAS military to experience degradation. The Collective soldiers were heavily involved in training, arming, and providing operational support for the SAS military. With Collective soldiers suspended, this has effectively halted all planned or ongoing operations.
The SAS military remains on high alert, and all major city and military base defenses remain online. Missile platforms and defense systems have been moved towards wartime positions in anticipation of an attack. Collective forces are not augmenting these movements, although there is nothing to indicate that the CODEX managing the SAS network has been similarly taken offline or suspended.
Currently, the SAS Military is postured towards defensive and not offensive operations. There is no indication that the SAS Military intends to perform any offensive attacks on ADVENT or allied positions. We do not know if this suspension includes the Zararch operating in SAS territory, or SAS Intelligence operations themselves. We have no movement to report, but we are considering both of these entities as still active and mobile.
LIKELIHOOD OF AUTHENTICITY: Given the status of Betos as a traitor to ADVENT, her connection to the Ethereal Macula and his personal spymaster Keeper, there is a question to be asked if this is staged to provide the illusion of independence and not a genuine order. There is no conclusive answer as of now, but we will demonstrate what we know of each actor and the reasons for an event like this to be faked.
There are reasons why the Collective may deem this worth the loss of political face. The most obvious is that it feeds into the narrative that the SAS is not controlled by the Collective, and is in fact a genuine ally who is only interested in helping non-conforming Human nations resist ADVENT. Such a public condemnation and expulsion makes the SAS far more attractive than a potential Ethereal puppet state.
Both Keeper and Macula are shrewd enough to accept the premise of this argument. There is also the possibility that Betos was facing opposition from her own internal advisors, and agreed to work with Keeper to use this to get them fully behind her, assured that she is not an Ethereal puppet. Similarly, it signals to the general public that they possess independence from direct alien control, and strengthens the morale and pride of individuals within the SAS.
Tactically, Betos could have raised concerns about Patricia's conduct and pointed out that the SAS is a prime target for ADVENT retaliation, and as she likely has little to no input on the grand strategy of the Collective, does not want to suffer undue retaliation. Keeper could have offered this as a solution, or she could have proposed it herself in a bid to shield the SAS from ADVENT retaliation.
There is a solid basis for being a false flag event, but it would require extensive coordination between Keeper, Macula, and Betos, and would have required Betos to be aware of the oncoming events beforehand, which we have no evidence of.
Concerning Betos's own psychological profile, her condemnation of the attack falls within acceptable and plausible behavior. Considering her own condemnation of ADVENT's tactics against protesters and policy on civilian casualties, as well as policies around annexation and capture of other nations, her applying these standards to the Collective is likely.
Betos is highly idealistic and holds strong moral views on warfare and how it should be waged. There is evidence to suggest that Betos is being fully sincere in her condemnation, as her recent refusal to extradite ADVENT captives offworld showed that she was not necessarily going to follow Collective procedure. In conjunction with this event, and the fact that her statement was released so quickly is strong evidence that Betos fully stands behind her condemnation.
It is unknown why, if this is the case, the Collective would willingly remove themselves. The most plausible answer is that they judge the costs of refusing to follow the demands of the SAS government are greater than simply doing so. It is not implausible that the Collective did not expect this condemnation, but will use it to their advantage – perhaps Betos realized this as well and used it as leverage to get the Collective to agree to temporarily leave.
We will likely not gain enough confidence to state the validity of this action until we see how the Collective responds.
POTENTIAL RAMIFICATIONS: The ramifications will vary depending on if this was authentic or staged. If it is staged, we will likely see a symbolic acknowledgement from the Collective to the alleged SAS grievances in a short span of time. Any potential public rift will be quickly smoothed over, and both the SAS and Ethereal Collective will give a joint statement of unity. That will be a strong indicator of unity. This could involve high-level visits between Betos and Collective officials (including Macula or Keeper), or potentially an off-world visit by Betos to a Collective world.
However, if this was not a staged action, we could expect to see a medium-to-long period of protracted discussions between the SAS and Ethereal Collective. The Collective could potentially withdraw all soldiers in a counter-retaliation, or in extreme cases, cease sending food, materials, and arms. This is an extreme step, and not one we expect to see taken.
The Collective will be unlikely to issue a statement of apology or unity, as it is unlikely that Betos would accept outright propaganda. Any agreement reached is far more likely to be quiet and secure, and should an agreement be reached, operations will continue with little to no fanfare. It is possible there will be a public acknowledgement, but it would likely come from the SAS, not the Collective. It would also not necessarily be a joint statement if Betos is insistent on showing independence.
During this period, depending on the level of anger or frustration from within the Collective, they could send major figures to meet with her, which include the Battlemaster or Patricia Trask to force her cooperation or strongly negotiate. That would signal that the Collective is highly displeased and wish to exert their will over her. We have not dismissed the possibility of outright mind control – and curiously if this is genuine, serves as additional confirmation that Betos has not been telepathically influenced to a degree where she is incapable of action which is detrimental to the Collective – which is a substantive revision from our earliest assessments.
Regardless of the validity of the event, it is very likely that three or more nations which have been leaning towards joining the SAS will do so. There is the potential for more, and this will likely boost morale and support for Betos within the SAS, as well as sympathetic media outlets which operate out of ADVENT or independent nations. We remain watchful for subversive elements which may seek to exploit this development.
As a final note, this is once again signaling that the Collective understands that these actions have the potential to provoke us, and staged or not, this is an acknowledgement that there is not universal support for the tactics that Patricia Trask employed within the Collective, likely coming from the Battlemaster wing, and now the SAS, though both likely for different reasons.
We will observe what we can of this potential schism moving forward.
SUGGESTED ACTIONS: Until we have gained sufficient clarification of the authenticity of the SAS condemnation, we have upgraded the standing of the SAS from a Puppet State to a Client State, as current public evidence fits the criteria of the latter, and the known and public actions of Betos and the SAS government do not satisfy the criteria for classification of 'puppet state'.
Please note that the Sovereign African States are still at war with ADVENT, and this state of war has not changed. The known alliance between the SAS and Ethereal Collective has not been changed, as we see no scenario where the SAS formally breaks from the Collective.
Based on the current degraded capabilities of the SAS, we recommend that if there is to be any military strike conducted against the territory, it is to be done now. The SAS remains a valuable and viable military target of which the Collective has poured a significant amount of resources into.
The potential schism between Betos and the Ethereal Collective is notable, but not significant enough to affect current operations. We also suggest that due to the likelihood of SAS expansion, the preparations for Operation Scipio be prepared for launch, in order to dissuade further nations from becoming involved further.