ADVENT | History
The Destruction of Lagos
"This was, unfortunately, inevitable."
- Commander Laura Christiaens
ADVENT had made an unusual decision, which was to allow journalists into a session of Congress closed to the public. This was not, strictly speaking, unusual. Technically, almost any session was closed to the public, even if most are available as livestreams. But this one was secret; closed.
It remains an open question as to how many closed sessions are initiated by the Congress. Public sources believe that they occur multiple times per week, though no one knows exactly what is discussed within them. Tracking is performed by simply observing how many ADVENT officials who are not Representatives enter and leave the building.
Very rarely are they seen on public broadcasts.
However, the fact that ADVENT was openly permitting the press to enter this closed session was enough to show that they wanted whatever was to be discussed to be made public. I, and many others, were not comfortable with this arrangement, as it seemed like ADVENT was looking to use us, or expected us to convey information in a certain way.
There was always this question with ADVENT. They do not engage with the media unless there is a distinct reason for it.
This time was not expected to be different.
I had only been to the Congress once before, in one of the earliest sessions. This time there was far more security. Guards stood before every doorway and checkpoint. I saw those who didn't have displayed credentials be removed without question, even if the credentials were just stored away in a bag.
Few of us have much sympathy if ADVENT removes individuals at this point for violations. It's a new reality of the job; if ADVENT sets a standard, make sure it is met or face the consequences.
We were ushered into a balcony where we could observe the deliberations of whatever the contents of this session would be. We were permitted recorders and ADVENT-issued laptops to take notes and later forward them to our devices. Most of us stuck with paper and pen. ADVENT only performed cursory checks on our recorders.
We knew it was serious when we saw who was in attendance. Commander Christiaens, Chief Stein, Director Powell, and Dr. Kettani were seated in the witness benches, as the sponsor of the upcoming bill prepared to give opening statements.
There were several possibilities which could come to fruition, but many of us were fearing a declared war or annexation. Instead, it was a resolution on weapons of mass destruction and the usage of nuclear weapons. The Representative who we were asked not to identify introduced two separate resolutions, one on the definition of weapons of mass destruction, and the second granting authority to the Executive Branch to authorize a nuclear strike in the interest of State security.
It is likely that this is in direct response to the recent attacks by Patricia Trask and the Ethereals. Under the definitions proposed by the resolution, psions over a certain Trask level would be considered WMDs – which we quickly determined tied to the second resolution, which was justification for responding in kind.
As the resolution quotes - "In the event of the usage of weapons of mass destruction against ADVENT, the state of ADVENT, or the citizens of ADVENT, the Executive Branch shall be permitted to authorize the usage of nuclear weapons without consultation or approval of this Congress, ADVENT High Command, or ADVENT Intelligence. This resolution shall hereby expire after initial triggering, and must be renewed by this Congress."
The language used in both resolutions, copies of which were provided to all press who attended, was very specific, thorough, and had clearly been written and vetted long before actually being introduced. Representatives questioned each of the witnesses on the necessity of the acts, and each one gave the same affirmative answer.
Amusingly, they stopped Powell from elaborating, as else he would have subjected the Congress to a seventy-slide PowerPoint with each slide packed with excruciating detail. It showed that this was something Chancellor Vyandar had clearly authorized and planned before. The question of which is for what.
A singular amendment was proposed, which would have removed the one-time use for the second resolution and handed effectively full control of ADVENT's nuclear arsenal. This was – thankfully, and to our slight surprise – shot down by every witness called. More proof that the Chancellor was planning something specific, and this was part of it.
Five hours after we had been seated, both resolutions passed almost unanimously, and we were escorted out. Outside of a few specific requests, ADVENT put few restrictions on what we could discuss.
It might not seem like it initially, but I have a feeling that I witnessed history being made. I believe I witnessed the prelude to the first nuclear strike ADVENT will launch.
I do not know how to process this except to report it, and pray that ADVENT knows the precedent they will be setting.
Blog: A Journalist in ADVENT | Behind the Secret Session of the Congress
ADVENT Military After-Action Report 2091
Operation: Holy Lance
Author: Commander Laura Christiaens
Recipients: Chancellor Saudia Vyandar; Chief of Lancer Operations Helion Weekes; Chief of ADVENT Engineering and Development Feng Mercado; Chief Diplomat Firdaus Hassan; Director of ADVENT Intelligence Ian Powell
The utilization of the Atomic Lance against the city of Lagos, Nigeria, has already proven to be a monumental and historic event in this conflict. It was preceded by one of the deadliest short-lived conflicts, and multiple assaults by the Harbinger Patricia Trask and the Ethereal Collective against cities worldwide.
As a prelude to the upcoming Operation Scipio and related operations, it has already served as a major distraction from current movements and deployments, though this could easily shift in the coming days. There are several important takeaways from this operation, which will be detailed below.
Collective Signaling Miscalculation: The Ethereal Collective has doubtless noticed our signaling and willingness to use weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons specifically. While they made no outward acknowledgement of our efforts to signal our intent, it is unreasonable to believe that they did not accurately notice the indications and conveyed this to leadership.
There are two possibilities we can determine from this outcome – which is the fact that the Collective made no obvious effort to pre-empt or mitigate the effects of nuclear weaponry or fallout. The first is that the Collective believed we were bluffing, likely calculating that based on our previous unwillingness to use nuclear weapons, likely made from both public and classified statements. They judged that we would not follow through with any such attack, and thus significantly miscalculated.
The question is not necessarily if the Collective miscalculated, but how they miscalculated. The above is a miscalculation of our willingness to utilize nuclear weapons. A potentially more likely miscalculation was our redlines for nuclear weapon use. It is entirely possible that they did not believe that the attack on New York constituted a red line from which we would justify a strike.
Another potential miscalculation was that even if the Collective had accurately determined our redlines, it is very possible that the countermeasures they deployed to mitigate the fallout would have been insufficient against the Atomic Lance, and instead calibrated for normal nuclear warheads, leading to the same outcome.
It is impossible to fully say what might have happened if the Collective had accurately identified our redlines, but we can estimate that they are extremely aware of them now, and may adjust their posture and tactics accordingly. There is a strong possibility that they will escalate regardless, but it may also return this conflict to a more conventional setting.
Atomic Lance Effectiveness: I am pleased to report that the Atomic Lance met and even exceeded our expectations. As expected, it activated outside of the effective range of the Collective anti-missile systems, with no tangible loss of effect against the target. Further testing may be needed, but from preliminary data, it appears that the effective range of the Atomic Lance is far higher than what we detonated it at.
These weapons are validated as potential anti-ship weaponry. Further testing will be needed.
The yield of the Lance was enough to not only level the target area instantly, but also create a sizable crater at the point of impact, and the following shockwave caused damage to the entire city and caused additional casualties. This weapon has effectively taken out an entire city with a fraction of the traditional resources or effort.
In theory it would be possible to fortify a city to withstand 'atomic shock' as it has been designated, but this would only allow the critical infrastructure to survive the shockwave without significant damage. Based on our intelligence, there is no current SAS city, installation, or base which is properly fortified.
Furthermore, there would need to be resources and measures in place to mitigate the nuclear fallout from the blast which will perpetuate for the first days after the strike. The Atomic Lance has a smaller radius of lethal radiation levels than conventional nuclear warheads, but it would be more than sufficient to sicken any surviving populations, further consuming enemy resources and lives.
The usage of more Atomic Lances during or following Operation Scipio should be considered.
Anticipated Civilian Response: The usage of the Atomic Lance is different than the circumstances of deploying a nuclear warhead in Miami. As opposed to a final stand to salvage a losing conflict, the deployment of the Lance was against an occupied enemy city. The response is anticipated to be different.
We have not determined if the civilian response will be largely supportive or concerned. This is a step which until this point, has been avoided for good reasons. We hope to mitigate the concerns about fallout with data of the limited impact of the Atomic Lance, but believe this will be unlikely to shift opinions strongly.
Opinions on nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction are heavily ingrained in the minds of individuals, and many have already had their minds made up. We believe the majority will accept the justification, but there is likely to be a contingent of people within the civilian population and media who will not view the usage of the Lance as a positive, or even needed development.
Counterpoints should be ready to be used after PATRIOT finds and determines the most common anti-Lance talking points. These should be distributed to ADVENT spokespeople and other proxies to counter-message and assume immediate control of the narrative. This was a necessary and justified action. This narrative should not be changed, though discussion on the impact of using a nuclear weapon such as this should be permitted.
Anticipated SAS Response: We expect an immediate pivot back to the Ethereal Collective and an immediate military mobilization. Our nearest outposts should be put on immediate alert, though this should hopefully coincide with Operation Scipio, and the SAS military will be unprepared for the oncoming invasion.
We expect the Ethereal Collective and Sovereign African States to make a public, potentially joint statement of support for each other, and condemnation of ADVENT. We expect the SAS to use footage, images, and witnesses from the destruction of Lagos to build a narrative which paints us as a heartless aggressor and them as a victim.
Counter-messaging this narrative should be a top priority, as Zararch proxies will likely attempt to boost anti-ADVENT sentiment, and the SAS will doubtless use propaganda to rile up their own citizens, which will admittedly not be difficult. We expect Betos to drop her opposition to overall Collective strategy and other decisions they've made which she has publicly taken issue with.
We expect her posture, tone, and actions to become far more hostile to ADVENT, and her outreach to any unaligned nations that remain more intense. Depending on how affected she is by this attack, she may consider outright conquest of nearby nations to strengthen the SAS war machine.
This is admittedly a drastic step, but this event, in conjunction with renewed alien support, there is a likelihood that she could be organically pushed to taking these extreme actions. We still rate it as a low risk, but one we should be aware could happen.
Anticipated Collective Response: There are several actions we are expecting the Ethereal Collective to potentially take. The first is to immediately support the SAS through military, industrial, medical, and monetary means. The SAS remains their most important proxy state on Earth, and they will not want to see this investment wasted. Providing immediate assistance to Betos will ensure her loyalty and likely erase any remaining misgivings she has about their intentions.
Beyond the SAS, we expect every single Collective outpost on Earth to go on high alert. In the coming weeks we expect more advanced or longer-range missile-defense systems to be deployed, likely ones with nuclear detection capabilities. The Collective will almost certainly take this opportunity to modernize or upgrade their anti-nuclear or anti-WMD capabilities. They have no choice now that they know any base can be targeted with limited fallout.
We are also preparing for the possibility of a significant escalation in raids on nuclear plants, military stations, and other known sites where Atomic Lances may be stored. The Collective will consider this a major escalation and may believe they are within their rights to respond in kind. A response is inevitable, what is not known is what form it will take.
More attacks by Patricia may be forthcoming, but we believe that the Collective may forestall future Harbinger attacks, and instead carry out more conventional invasions, perhaps with Harbinger or Ethereal assistance, under the belief that this will not trigger more nuclear strikes. Collective actions in the next few weeks are likely to be unpredictable and potentially cautious, as they explore what our redlines are, and how close they can push them.
The Collective does not seem inclined to want to turn this into a nuclear war, and we expect them to alter their strategy accordingly. Be prepared for the unexpected. We are both entering uncharted territory, and both sides can only escalate so much before the collateral damage becomes unsustainable.
Harbinger Trask,
Following the events of the Battle of New York, ADVENT has taken a significant number of retaliatory and escalatory steps in response, which include escalating military attacks against our current bases of operation, increasing aggressive signaling and rhetoric, and far deeper coordination with XCOM.
We did not anticipate the wide range of responses, many of which bring into question our estimation of XCOM and ADVENT's actual capabilities, which we now judge to be higher than anticipated. We believed they possessed contingencies that permitted a significant response, but the level of mobilization and coordination has surpassed our estimates.
We attribute this to the effective leadership of ADVENT, close coordination with XCOM elements, and meddling by the Sovereign One T'Leth. Were one of these critical elements missing, then this retaliation would have been significantly limited in scope. This event has exposed critical gaps in our knowledge of ADVENT, which is being rectified as soon as possible.
USAGE OF THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS: One of the actions ADVENT has taken was the usage of a nuclear weapon against the SAS city of Lagos, Nigeria, one of the largest in the country and important from an economic standpoint. It housed a significant civilian population with strong military defenses thanks to our modernization efforts.
We expected ADVENT to be strongly considering using nuclear weapons due to signaling of their willingness to do so through several resolutions introduced in the Congress of Nations which strictly authorized the retaliatory usage of nuclear weapons in the event of an attack by an Ethereal or Harbinger.
Our first miscalculation came from the fact that we did not anticipate the nuclear weapons being utilized against civilian targets. We believed that military installations were most at risk from nuclear strikes, and our current missile-defense systems were sufficient to deter and mitigate a nuclear strike.
This was a mistake. Our second miscalculation was believing that nuclear strikes would come from previously determined conventional nuclear weaponry. We acquired intelligence indicating that ADVENT was performing nuclear research, likely an effort to modernize or slightly enhance their current arsenal.
What we did not anticipate was ADVENT devising an entirely new class of nuclear weapon, which they have not publicly elaborated on, instead simply referring to it as a 'nuclear strike'. The civilian and media population does not appear to have noticed the differences yet, and are focusing entirely on the strike itself.
But this is a new kind of new – advanced – nuclear weapon.
CAPABILITIES OF THE NUCLEAR WEAPON: There remain many unknowns as to the specific capabilities of this new nuclear weapon. The most obvious one is that it does not function as a conventional bomb. If it had, it would have been intercepted by our defense systems unless ADVENT intended to use them for an EMP strike, as they have done in the past.
Video from the event, which has been widely disseminated on ADVENT social media shows the nuclear blast being directed in a large beam towards the city – not a spherical explosion. This implies that ADVENT has managed to consolidate and direct the vast power of nuclear fire into a directed output.
Consultation by Union Reinarm engineers confirms that a weapon like this is completely feasible, and shares some similarities with their more advanced Reinarm Cannon. However, the Reinarm Cannon is primarily designed as an anti-capital ship weapon, whereas this nuclear weapon seems to be designed to allow ADVENT to perform more surgical strikes with limited nuclear fallout – a concern which had constricted their willingness to use nuclear weapons before.
There is significant concern that ADVENT will realize the effectiveness in using it against spacecraft, if they haven't already. We should assume that ADVENT will be willing to use this weapon against large spacecraft, and appropriate adjustments and countermeasures should be prepared. This is not a weapon we cannot withstand; we simply need to adjust and learn more information.
ANTICIPATED ADVENT ACTIONS: Due to the target being a city within the SAS, we expect this to be a prelude to large-scale ground and air warfare between ADVENT and the SAS. We have noted significant mobilization, though the current sandstorms in the Sahara Desert have likely forestalled any immediate movement.
A large naval force is also mobilizing and beginning to move towards SAS shores. They are likely to hold off until the ground component is ready. It appears to be a well-equipped force and signals that ADVENT is not going to hold back in their operations. However, it is not an invincible fleet despite the size, and the deployment of the Andromedon Aquatic Forces should be more than sufficient to remove a significant portion of their wet navy.
Additionally, ADVENT is likely to continue their usage of these nuclear weapons, either in response to attacks by Harbingers or Ethereals, or as part of their new strategy. Given the historic precedent for their reluctance to use nuclear weapons, we judge that they will likely use them only when sufficiently provoked. ADVENT has repeatedly signaled a willingness to not escalate, but have now shown that they will do so if they are sufficiently provoked or threatened.
We should take this into consideration when refining our strategy going forward. Until we determine the scope, nature, and impact of this new nuclear weapon, I recommend holding off on significant retaliatory actions.
Please see a separate report concerning the attack on the shipyards of Olganar-2 and Hive Commander 666.
ADDITIONAL XCOM ACTIONS: It was not just ADVENT which retaliated. XCOM was behind a series of high-profile attacks which may or may not have been performed with ADVENT knowledge. ADVENT did not signal any of the following operations XCOM was, or is suspected to be, a part of.
We strongly believe that XCOM was responsible for the sudden and unexpected attacks on African state governments and militaries – all the affected nations had either agreed to, or openly considered, joining the SAS. Every single operation was successful, and several embedded Zararch agents were lost.
The result is that large swaths of Africa are likely to descend into chaos and anarchy without intervention, and this will have a ripple effect across the region. Worse is that XCOM has planted evidence in support of Collective involvement, as well as leaving witnesses alive who were likely psionically manipulated to spread additional rumors. Critical infrastructure, such as water was poisoned, electrical grids were taken down, and there is a Chryssalid epidemic with individuals eating or ingesting food seeded with what appear to be modified Chryssalid eggs.
XCOM has shown a willingness in the past to take extreme actions to weaken our efforts and achieve their desired goals. ADVENT is unlikely to be behind these actions, as we would have had prior knowledge or indication of their strikes. We should be extremely aware that XCOM is likely to apply these tactics to our own worlds in the future, especially since XCOM does not have logistical limitations as it relates to travel that ADVENT does.
The efforts to retaliate culminated in a direct strike against the Mars Observation Station, which consisted of a mixed team of XCOM and Vitakara soldiers. The Borelian who perished is currently being examined for identification. We were also able to identify the former Ravager of the Hegemony is now openly contributing to XCOM military efforts.
This operation was ultimately unsuccessful, despite their successful elimination of a Special Operator, and significant damage to various points of the station, as well as the proliferation of Shoggoths. We are still attempting to find and remove them. Their inability to be telepathically controlled makes extermination difficult.
One point of note is that XCOM has now managed to find a teleporter and a telekine specializing in molecular manipulation. This is an unwelcome development, if not unexpected. The participation of both the Chronicler and the man identified as Geist showed that XCOM considered this mission important.
The goal was not clear. We believe there were joint objectives, which were the destruction or extraction of data related to the station, as well as the elimination of myself. XCOM also possessed a mechanical platform apparently controlled by JULIAN, the XCOM artificial intelligence.
Once the Overmind intervened, XCOM was forced to retreat, demonstrating that even the best of XCOM are not yet beyond us. We are incorporating additional security measures into the Mars Observation Station to make it difficult for a repeat operation to be performed.
SAS ENHANCEMENT: Macula has confirmed that Betos is prepared to welcome Collective assistance to the SAS, and willing and motivated to strike back against ADVENT. She has signaled her readiness to openly war against ADVENT, and is now sufficiently reliable for more development options.
The elimination of her confidant and friend Mox has also succeeded in driving her to take a more hostile stance against ADVENT, and Keeper estimates she is far more malleable to more aggressive actions not only against ADVENT, but also to expand the SAS. It will not take much to persuade her that XCOM was behind the nearby destabilizations, and the lack of any leadership and knowledge that chaos will spill into SAS territory will be justifiable within her existing moral framework to stage an intervention before ADVENT does.
Having Betos publicly blame XCOM or ADVENT for the destabilizations only has a positive impact, as ADVENT will not have an evidence-based response, and will give legitimacy for additional measures taken as the SAS mobilizes for conflict. The destruction of Lagos alone will serve as a powerful rallying cry to all of Africa, so long as it can be exploited.
Deployments of all forces and resources have been quadrupled in anticipation of an imminent ADVENT surge to Africa.
T'LETH INTERVENTION: The final component to this joint retaliation is the confirmation that T'Leth is increasing his direct intervention. The arrival of the Imperator in New York, despite for wholly justifiable reasons, has been taken poorly by ADVENT, XCOM, and T'Leth. The incident on Mars was intended as a clear warning directed at the Imperator and the Collective as a whole.
This forces us to reexamine the actual capabilities of T'Leth, which clearly have reach beyond Earth. Previously we believed that his reach was primarily through his proxies – which we expect to continue to support XCOM – but this was a severe underestimation of his power. We have sent the glyph which was left at Mars to Mosrimor, as Cogitian could not identify it.
The Voice replied that the glyph was difficult to translate, as Sovereigns do not usually communicate through language and messages as we do. Glyphs such as the one T'Leth left are traditionally memetic in nature, and unknowingly transmitted through a proxy species until they reach the Sovereign in question. Memetics allow a mixture of symbology, context, emotion, and messaging in a convenient package.
However, the Voice did confirm that the glyph has been seen and used before, and the closest 'translation', despite no memetic context, is roughly along the lines of 'Return to dust, lest it be scattered'.
A threat, clearly, but one which seems jumbled and not completely clear. The point is that T'Leth is becoming more willing to intervene, and that is something which should be taken into account as we proceed.
- Zar'Chon'ravarian'vitiary
The war between our species and the aliens is one which is unlikely to have a happy ending.
Even should we emerge victorious, there is a cost which will be had, regardless of if we choose to acknowledge it or not. Families, mothers, fathers, sisters, and brothers have already experienced this cost. Someone knows of someone who has died, something who has fought, or someone who has survived.
All of us have contributed to the effort to survive this war. Some of us joined to fight, others to support, and all of us to contribute. We get through the war day by day, glued to a screen or listening to the radio as newscasters break down every single development, while hoping and praying that we don't hear that a place which holds someone we know was attacked.
Our focus is in the short term. It is who we are as Humans. It is difficult to move past this. Few things will shock us out of it. The usage of nuclear weapons may be one of them. Prior to this ADVENT had a very clear stance, both elaborated on or implied, that they didn't want to use nuclear weapons not only because of the environmental impact, but psychologically due to how these weapons have impacted our species.
The usage of one in Miami was a last attempt, used in a place where only aliens would be caught in the blast. Today's use is different. Once again nuclear weapons have been used against an enemy city, one occupied with civilians.
The Sovereign African States is an enemy state. We have experienced attacks across the world from Ethereals and proxies like Patricia Trask. ADVENT knew it could justify an attack like this, and they are not necessarily wrong. This isn't being written to condemn ADVENT for the actions they have taken. They might have thought there was no real choice. They may be right.
But this Pandora's Box has now been opened. I fear that there will only be devastation that follows. It is not unreasonable to assume that the aliens have a weapon equivalent to, or greater, than our own. Now they may use it. ADVENT will feel compelled to follow suit. This weapon of utter destruction will no longer be treated as something to be used only when other options have been exhausted, but a standard weapon in the arsenal of ADVENT.
We as a species should never reach the point where we accept weapons which can instantly annihilate hundreds of thousands of people in an instant as normal or acceptable. Be it ADVENT or alien, seeing casualties be reduced to numbers will only harbor a downward spiral for this war. Should this war continue to escalate, the question must be asked – at what point does it become not worth it?
Our world continues to be largely unaffected. Or at least not sufficiently damaged because of the war. Will we be able to say the same six months or a year from now? How long until many of our cities are irradiated wastelands or bombed-out shells from bombardment and conquest? How long until our forests and oceans are poisoned and burned if the ecological cost continues to rise?
The Collective does not care about our world. This much is clear. ADVENT may be unintentionally going down this path if they are not careful, if they let their focus on defeating the aliens supersede all. Perhaps they believe they can heal and rebuild a planet should they succeed.
This is not a call for peace. Such seems to be impossible. There is too much irreconcilable to allow such an agreement. But I sincerely hope ADVENT understands what they have started, and will carefully consider the cost of continued nuclear proliferation. Going down this path cannot be stopped now, but it can be controlled.
There will be a life after this war. Let us hope we are able to live it.
- Article | As the Bomb Drops, We Enter the Unknown