ADVENT | History

The Fall of the Nordic States

"Work with us, and we will be your strongest ally and best friend. Slander, oppose, or inhibit us, and we will take everything from you."

- Chief Diplomat Firdaus Hassan

ADVENT Operational Proposal 341

Operation: Hammerfall

Author: Director Ian Powell

Recipients: Chancellor Saudia Vyandar; Chief of Lancer Operations Helion Weekes; Commander Laura Christiaens; Chief Diplomat Firdaus Hassan; Grand Inquisitor Declan Rodgers; Chief Overseer Keith Watkins

OVERVIEW: Since the foundation, ADVENT has continued to expand in political, social, and economic dominance over the remainder of the world. It is arguable that the fall and subsequent assimilation of China has effectively begun an irreversible domino effect by which each remaining nation will either be assimilated into ADVENT or fall under Collective control.

It is in the interests of ADVENT, and subsequently Humanity itself, that all remaining nations must immediately join forces against the alien threat. Most of Europe has begun to fall in line, but there remain holdouts, particularly in Africa, South America, and the majority of the region which comprises the Nordic States.

The Netherlands is the exception, who joined us relatively recently, but willingly due to the continuing threat of the alien invasion. This operation will focus on the remaining Nordic states – specifically Sweden, Finland, and Norway, who have shown varying degrees of hostility and reluctance to join ADVENT.

It is imperative that this be corrected.

JUSTIFICATION: The Nordic region poses a security risk which is currently outside our direct control. The Nordic states are ill-equipped to face any advanced military, let alone an alien one. Sanctions have reduced morale, resources, manpower, and economy, to the point where if the Collective wished to invade, they would have little trouble conquering the region in short order.

This is unacceptable, and should the Collective take advantage of this vulnerability, northern Europe could be at significant risk of invasion, and opening yet another front in this war. In the interest of State security, this alone is justification for more sophisticated methods to be utilized to bring the remaining Nordic states into the fold.

Secondary to the security risk, this war requires a fully unified species and world to effectively combat the alien threat. Each unaligned nation is a chink in our armor which can and will be exploited. Beyond the drain of manpower, resources, and industry, each remaining nation allows the perpetuation of old world norms and culture, which is a justification cited by many nations as a reason for reluctance to fully join ADVENT.

This threatens to undermine the current authority, especially when defiant nations utilize it in their messaging, thus inviting media propagation. So in addition to an untapped pool of resources and manpower, the current existence of the modern Nordic states represent a cultural threat, who is continuing to exist due to our unwillingness to press this issue and taking advantage of their irrelevance, and thus the lowered likelihood of attracting alien attention.

It should be noted that the problem appears to be centered more around the respective governments of the Nordic states, and not necessarily the citizens. While the Nordic states are culturally more democratic and liberal, polling indicates that the overwhelming majority of citizens see the aliens as the immediate threat to be addressed – and are willing to sacrifice in order to be safe.

APPROACH | CURRENT: Recently implemented sanctions against nations which are not ADVENT members have been applied to the defiant Nordic states, and are having a significant impact on the overall health, effectiveness, and economy of their nations. All the respective states have expanded their own trade agreements, thus managing to alleviate a portion of the sanctions, but this was a short-term solution which has begun to fade.

The Nordic states in question are simply not self-sufficient enough to mitigate the effect of the sanctions, nor have the time, resources, or manpower to transition. While we judge that the sanctions are having their intended effect, we are also in a position where we cannot have the country completely collapse, as we need it to be able to transition quickly to a wartime tempo once assimilated.

Right now necessities are still being applied, but this will not last for much longer. Should the sanctions remain in place as they are now, there will be overt societal unrest within three months. This is a timetable which, while workable, should be accelerated. Maximum sanctions have been applied, and no more can be added to speed up this process.

While we judge that the risk of the Nordic states being coerced into joining or supporting the Ethereal Collective is low, the risk of potential invasion and occupation by Collective forces is continuing to increase, and as a result, the current approach must be refined, refocused, and accelerated.

APPROACH | OVERT: This will be broken into two parts – OVERT and COVERT. Our overt options are public signaling through official sources and proxies. The Diplomatic Corps will renew and intensify efforts to bring the Nordic states into the fold. They should be given significant leeway to negotiate without compromising ADVENT values or objectives.

To emphasize, the Nordic states will not be treated differently under ADVENT law, nor will they be exempted from certain regulations and expected norms. We should be willing to provide them with economic, scientific, humanitarian, and military support and aid to bring them to a modern ADVENT country. Funding is not an issue – stress this.

We should also consider floating potential talking points into the mainstream and foreign media, specifically as it relates to the Nordic vulnerability to alien invasion. We can release simulations and studies which show how quickly Nordic states can be taken over, as well as expected casualties. For maximum effectiveness, this should be instituted by mainstream platforms and ADVENT Media should not initially cover it. PATRIOT should help disseminate it through social media, and the press will pick up on it soon enough.

This carries with it the risk of alerting the Collective to the vulnerability of the Nordic states – although it is likely they already are aware, and have not finalized a strategy. They may also consider the release of this information as a deterrent or trap. We lose very little by taking this approach, and it may put public pressure on the Nordic governments from their citizens.

Our military outreach should also be expanded. Mil-to-mil conversations should be heavily increased at all levels, from Commander Christiaens to our Defense Attaches. The danger these states are in must be stressed. All available data, projections, and simulations should be provided to showcase the incapability of withstanding an alien attack.

High-level conversations between the Chancellor and Heads of State should also take place, though there may be unwillingness initially. Nonetheless, this should be an option which remains on the table until this situation is resolved.

APPROACH | COVERT: We should acquire whatever needed warrants, waivers, and resolutions to take an aggressive covert approach bringing the Nordic States into ADVENT. There are two main objectives to this approach – first is taking control of the narrative as it relates to sanctions against the states.

Currently the Nordic governments are using this as justification to continue to refuse ADVENT membership, and generating civilian solidarity to resist it as well. It is an effective talking point against ADVENT assimilation which is capable of generating public and foreign sympathy.

The solution is to accelerate the civilian unrest through organic and artificial means. The utilization of PATRIOT to create numerous profiles which have the appearance of Nordic nations should be permitted, which will highlight government ineffectiveness, cowardice, incompetence, and continually pivoting back to the real threat of the aliens.

We estimate that there is an untapped current of public unrest, and a large sentiment of public unrest and frustration will exponentially increase if it is properly stoked and cultivated. PATRIOT is capable of cultivating this unrest until it is fully organic, as well as maintaining it for however long is necessary.

It should be clear that this should not be obvious. These personas should not make any mention of ADVENT. It should focus solely on the current state of the nation and personal hardship. It is likely the governments will believe conspiracy, but they will not be able to prove it without sounding like they are making excuses for their ineptitude.

The second major component of this effort is the direct approach of ranking military officials for the purposes of staging a change in government. Based on Attaché reporting and intercepted communications and documents, the military leadership of the Nordic states in question is heavily concerned about the alien threat, and the unwillingness of the government to act.

They do not approve of the sanctions, but they see them as a consequence of an unwilling government, not something inherently malicious since they are not blind to the reality of this war. They have petitioned and lobbied their respective governments for several months, and have largely been ineffective. We estimate that Prime Minister Kjell of Norway is potentially considering ADVENT statehood, but this is not confirmed, and does not apply to the other heads of state who are utterly opposed to ADVENT.

The point to be understood is that the militaries are open-minded, sympathetic, and more importantly willing to take an extreme step to secure their nations and protect them. Direct negotiations should be begun immediately, and be reserved as a nuclear option in the event that the governments do not capitulate or negotiate.

REQUIRED OUTCOME: The outcome that we expect at the conclusion of this operation is the full assimilation of Sweden, Finland, and Norway into ADVENT, with all of the rights, privileges, and expectations as befitting a full member state of ADVENT. The willingness or compliance of the sitting government is preferred, but not required.

It is important that ADVENT be prepared to immediately provide assistance to these countries and ensure they are properly and efficiently welcomed into ADVENT. Should there be a need for a government transition, new elections should be facilitated as soon as possible to ensure a stable and representative government.

CONTINGENCIES: There remains a possibility that this operation will not succeed at critical junctures, and as such, there should be contingencies in place for this possibility. We have identified the two most likely points of failure below:

Contingency 1 | Military and Government Hold Strong: There remains a slight chance that one or more Nordic states will reject negotiations to join ADVENT, both overt and covert. There also remains the chance that military officials will expose negotiations, leading to immediate public and political fallout, and strengthening the position of the Nordic governments.

In the event of this failure, the current actions taken will be enforced, and we will anticipate state collapse within three months. In the event the negotiations are exposed, heavy narrative controls will need to be employed to delegitimize and redirect government claims. Covert actions to generate resentment in the lower ranks should also be begun, to potentially instigate an intra-military schism or mass defection.

Contingency 2 | Nordic States Prove Resilient: This explores the likelihood that the Nordic states outlast our projects of a three-month timeframe, and are able to effectively mobilize their nation and industry to become self-sufficient while at the same time avoiding mass unrest and societal collapse.

This is extremely unlikely due to the ineffectiveness of the governments, as well as the growing schism between military and government leaders, and a more likely manifestation of this scenario is a military takeover, who would not join ADVENT, but instead nationalize industries and begin a mass-recruitment and mobilization nation-wide, under military control.

In this scenario, we judge that the Nordic states may be more willing to consider joining ADVENT, especially under military guidance. Sanctions may no longer be effective in this scenario, but this is countered by a military leadership which understands the threat the aliens pose.

However, in the event that governments retain their control and implement these measures, we will need to perform a full reassessment, and strengthen laws and resolutions related to potential annexation of the Nordic states in question. Then we must wait, and see which tripwire they will activate first.

It should be reiterated that this is an unlikely scenario, but nonetheless, one which should be acknowledged.

Recorded Transcript Between Commander Laura Christiaens and Supreme Commander Astrad Dahlman

[Laura Christiaens]: "Welcome, Supreme Commander. I'm pleased you were able to speak with us."

[Astrad Dahlman]: "I would say the feeling is mutual, Laura."

[LC]: "But…"

[AD]: "Is that a real question?"

[LC]: "Regardless of the situation, it is good to see you. It's been too long."

[AD]: "You'll have to explain how ADVENT nabbed you so quickly."

[LC]: "They needed someone to manage an international military. NATO was the closest equivalent."

[AD]: "And you're managing?"

[LC]: "As well as can be expected. You?"

[AD]: "I think we've all been better. ADVENT isn't helping right now."

[LC]: "The sanctions weren't my idea, but I know that's hollow. We want to remove them, but there are conditions."

[AD]: "We join ADVENT. Trust me, I'm aware of the conditions. From every source you've sent to us."

[LC]: "We've run our projections. You've run your own. How long do you have?"

[AD]: "Months, if we're lucky and the government takes extreme steps. They aren't going to do it, of course. They can't. There are shortages for everything. We don't have money. We don't have enough food. We are too reliant on exports. If something isn't done, it's going to get very bad. I know you want us in ADVENT, but we're not of any use if anarchy rules."

[LC]: "And you won't let it get to that point."

[AD]: "Soldiers have to eat too. I'm not ready to authorize my forces to start shooting when the looting starts. Do you really think Hans is going to authorize martial law?"

[LC]: "He will when the people come to eat the government. The people who've failed them."

[AD]: "Mmm. It isn't wholly their fault. ADVENT shares some of the blame."

[LC]: "We are facing a battle of survival. Anyone sitting on the sidelines at this point is not only short-sighted, but arguably an active threat."

[AD]: "Laura, I agree. The aliens are the threat, do you think I don't know that?"

[LC]: "You know, but I don't think you understand the severity."

[AD]: "Do you know how many fucking meetings I've had with Hans and his cabinet? Do you really want to know? No one wants to compromise. Hans hates ADVENT, and you won't even meet halfway. I might be able to get him on board with some kind of arms agreement-"

[LC]: "In exchange for what? Hans isn't going to give us soldiers, manpower, or resources."

[AD]: "You are being a bit hypocritical, you know that right?"

[LC]: "Do tell."

[AD]: "ADVENT keeps preaching about the need for us to come together as one species, but you won't help us unless we join you. No consideration for helping us because we're Human?"

[LC]: "It is a half-measure. Something temporary. We have to make choices, and the war effort and our own states take priority. And trust me, if the Collective were to invade Sweden, we would not stand by."

[AD]: "And annex us, yes?"

[LC]: "That depends on how your government responds. If they oppose our intervention, then they have decided to put their own selfish interests before the good of their citizens, and subsequently jeopardize other ADVENT nations."

[AD]: "Noted."

[LC]: "ADVENT is the future, Astrad. You know that."

[AD]: "It seems inevitable."

[LC]: "Then why delay it?"

[AD]: "This isn't a binary choice, it isn't black and white, no matter how much your propaganda says. ADVENT is not like us. It's…imperial. We're not that type of culture. You can't expect us to just…accept it."

[LC]: "They will adapt. Our species is remarkably resilient."

[AD]: "And that is disquieting."

[LC]: "It is why we're still in this fight. Astrad, listen, we want this to end peacefully and to get relief to your people. But we will not bend, not when your government stonewalls us at every turn. And you know that when it comes apart, we will be standing and whatever you are hoping to gain by holding out is lost."

[AD]: "An eloquent warning."

[LC]: "It's the truth. We are inevitable, like it or not. Sweden will capitulate. It is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when."

[AD]: "I am afraid you are likely right."

[LC]: "So do something about it."

[AD]: "And what, pray tell, could I do? I've done everything short of resigning."

[LC]: "You know what I'm saying. Let's pretend like you were making the decisions. No Hans, no Parliament, no cabinet, just you, with the choice laid before you. How do you go about it?"

[AD]: "We're speaking of treason, Laura."

[LC]: "And yet, you came here anyway."

[AD]: "Perhaps I had some hope you would bend, for old time's sake."

[LC]: "If only we had that luxury."

[AD]: "You understand what you are asking."

[LC]: "Yes. Species before country."

[AD]: "Did Powell give you that line?"

[LC]: "Rodgers, actually."

[AD]: "Who?"

[LC]: "Not important. But it's true. This war is bigger than any singular nation or government. We all have a choice to make. Sweden is not the first to make it, and they will not be the last. What is offered is the chance to go into it on your own terms. We are not your enemy, and we are ready to prove it."

[AD]: "What a pretty package you've boxed this into, Laura. I'm impressed."

[LC]: "I know what I am asking. You have the power now. Make a choice, or it will soon be made for you."

[AD]: "Then I suppose there isn't any real choice left."

[LC]: "Not this time, Astrad, not this time."

STOCKHOLM – At the order of the Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces, all government functions have been suspended and control of the state has been temporarily placed into the hands of the Supreme Commander and staff. This shocking development has caught the Hans administration, as well as the general public, completely off guard.

Soldiers have begun patrolling the streets, and have established presences around the major cities and important government landmarks. As of now there has been no reported unrest or disturbances, though there have been multiple swedes who have expressed their surprise, fear, and concern over what is coming next.

"I don't understand," a family who asked to remain anonymous sent. "This came out of nowhere. I didn't think that there would be a coup. It doesn't seem real."

"The soldiers have been leaving us alone," another individual living in Stockholm shared. "We don't know for how long. It isn't a curfew…yet. But they were watching us. Some friends went to get food and were able to do it. We'll have to wait and see."

It is confirmed by the Supreme Commander's Chief of Staff that military deployments are for deterrence purposes only, and that they do not expect to need to suspend civilian enterprises. However, this was accompanied with a warning to not cause unnecessary disturbances or act against the soldiers. "We're working to get this under control," he said in a statement. "We appreciate your cooperation."

As of now, military leaders have been tight-lipped as to why they had removed the sitting government, though sources within both the Swedish military and Hans administration confirmed that there had been rising tension between Supreme Commander Dahlman and Prime Minister Hans regarding ADVENT and their perception of the alien threat.

"Did I think that this may happen? Yes," a source said. "Did any of us actually expect him to go through with it? Never in a million years. Dahlman…he wouldn't do this unless he was threatened or he sincerely felt there was no other choice. I don't know what got into him."

"Hans pushed him into this," more administration staffers didn't hold back in their critique of the former Prime Minister. "Full stop. ADVENT may have a bunch of dictatorial wannabes in power, but they have their focus on the right thing, killing aliens. Dahlman wanted to focus on that, and Hans wanted to become the new symbol of the free world or something equally idiotic."

Still more put the blame squarely on an outside source. "Is it really a question?" An insider asked in a phone call as the soldiers were entering the parliament. "This has ADVENT fingerprints all over it. Dahlman was never loyal. They probably bribed him or brainwashed him. This needs to be firmly and thoroughly opposed."

Many citizens have expressed a desire to oppose the change in government, but there is a question of what that looks like in practice. There is a ban on significant public gatherings until a temporary government is in place, and the Supreme Commander has signaled intent to join with ADVENT as quickly as possible.

Already ADVENT has expressed their willingness to assist. "We are pleased that Sweden is now open to working together to focus on the alien threat," Chief Diplomat Hassan gave in a statement. "In accordance with our procedures, all sanctions have been lifted and we are facilitating direct shipments of critical supplies to Sweden, and we look forward to a deep and fruitful cooperation."

ADVENT has followed through on their promise, and hundreds of tons of supplies have been moved into Sweden, and the ADVENT Treasury has injected nearly a hundred million alloys into the Swedish economy into industrial sectors and businesses relating to wartime production. Talks are already beginning between the Supreme Commander and ADVENT in regards to Swedish statehood in ADVENT.

The previous administration was initially detained, and then later released after each of them formally resigned on camera, and a military officer was appointed in their place. Representatives who refused to resign were held until the military assumed a legal majority, and used several rarely-used procedures to expel sitting representatives, and released back to their homes.

Former Prime Minister Hans refused to resign, and with the military holding control of the legislature, removed him from office with Dahlman being appointed as a temporary head of state. Hans has promised to contest this in the courts, though it is difficult to see this changing the outcome as it is likely that Swedish law will be obsolete within months, if not weeks.

A similar situation has taken place in Finland, with the Chief of Defense Kata Uljas and the Finnish military taking equivalent actions against the sitting government, although unlike the Swedish Military, the Finnish military has announced they are beginning military trials for administrative officials for 'public endangerment'.

This has been preempted by a wave of mass resignations, and the military has moved to quickly fill the seats, and have openly declared their intentions to seek ADVENT statehood. "Finland has been standing on the sidelines of a conflict which threatens every single Human for too long," Uljas gave in a prepared statement to Finnish press. "ADVENT has continually expressed a willingness to defend our species, and we are proud to join them in this endeavor, and look forward to their aid in bringing our proud nation into this fight, and standing for all Humans."

ADVENT quickly welcomed this shift in Finnish policy. "We are honored to welcome Finland to the battlefield," Laura Christiaens said in a statement. "Finland has a history of standing against numerically larger and stronger foes, and we look forward to them bringing the same spirit to this fight as they did in the Winter War."

Rumors have circulated as to the timing of these changes in government, with former government officials accusing both military leaders of coordinating to overthrow their superiors, while others point directly to ADVENT. Adding more speculation is the fact that Chancellor Vyandar met with the heads of state of Sweden, Finland, and Norway, though notably, Norway has not experienced a change in government.

Chancellor Vyandar gave brief remarks on the situation, indicating how ADVENT is likely to pursue these developments. "We are very pleased to see both Sweden and Finland accepting the reality of this conflict, and look forward to working with them, and hopefully welcoming them as new members of ADVENT."

She also had this to say about Norway. "I've spoken with Prime Minister Kjell, and I believe we've established some common ground that we can build off of. I look forward to both our administrations working together, and firmly believe that you will see results of our efforts very soon."

- Article | Respective Military Forces take control of Sweden and Finland; Legislatures Detained or Arrested

OSLO - Despite the developing situations in Sweden and Finland, for Norway life has continued as usual – or so it would seem. There exists a tense atmosphere in the capital, as citizens watch the upheaval in their borders, and wonder if they are next. Since it has been several days, most assume that they will not have to experience a change in government.

But there are changes coming if the work in the Storting is anything to go by.

Immediately after his meeting with Chancellor Vyandar, Prime Minister Kjell gave a speech within the Storting, stating the need to consider the implications of continued neutrality, as well as putting forward the idea to let the people decide if the nation of Norway should join ADVENT. This was met with surprise from all assembled parties, all of whom were caught off guard by the proposal.

"This was not something which was mentioned to us," a high-profile Conservative representative who asked to remain anonymous said. "We didn't get an inkling that this was even up for consideration. He's put us in a tough situation, especially when taking into account the sanctions."

In the same day, ADVENT suspended the current sanctions against Norway. "We are pleased to see the government of Norway take concrete steps to determining their future," Chief Diplomat Firdaus Hassan gave in a statement. "We have always said we are more than willing to work with governments to reach an agreeable solution or at minimum facilitate a dialogue. Provided this proposed referendum take place, all sanctions will be lifted and ADVENT will fully respect the result with no additional retaliation."

Upon hearing this statement, the Kjell administration moved to introduce the referendum, highlighting the immediate sanctions relief and promise of ADVENT. Hours before voting, he announced that he had reached an agreement with ADVENT to provide them with food, medicine, and other resources with no strings attached, contingent upon confirmation that the referendum was going to be held.

It passed with a vast majority, with only fifteen votes against it.

The Referendum is scheduled for six weeks from the signing, and the conditions permit ADVENT to hold debates, town halls, and other presentations with the explicit goal of gathering support. The Kjell administration is taking the stance of firmly supporting ADVENT statehood, while the Liberal party and other opposition parties have taken the opposite stance, and will oppose ADVENT statehood.

However, even some of the opposition senses the shifting tides.

"No one wants to go through this again," an anonymous Liberal representative admitted. "Given the…speed at which ADVENT responded…people are just glad its over. All of what they did is effectively forgotten. What exactly do we attack them on? People don't care about liberty and freedom when they are low on food and terrified that aliens are coming to kill them. And with the coups on our borders? Who exactly is going to say no to ADVENT? You can't say no. Not anymore."

"ADVENT plays extremely dirty," another party official said. "They have no problem fear-mongering and traumatizing people to make a point. How exactly are we supposed to portray ADVENT as dangerous when they're showing images of dead children by alien plasma guns and saying 'this will happen to you if we aren't here'. It's not helping that Kjell is parading military officials who are saying the same thing. People are believing it, and the media isn't helping by playing footage of the war 24-7. It's destroying any nuance in this monumental debate."

When reached for comment, an ADVENT spokesperson said the following. "While we appreciate the wish of the opposition to have a nuanced debate, the truth is that this is not a question which is nuanced. It is a stark choice which faces the citizens of Norway – if they will join us and help protect our species, or stand on their own, and potentially face the alien threat alone. It is unfortunate that these individuals are more concerned with party power than the welfare of their citizens. Perhaps they should consider why they are losing the public to us before making excuses. To date they have been unable to assure the people they can take care of them should the Collective attack, and based on our own analysis, this will not change."

Public opinion has indeed significantly shifted to being favorable to ADVENT statehood, with sixty-three percent in favor and twenty-nine opposed in recent polls – one week since ADVENT and the Kjell administration began campaigning. It is expected to shift further towards ADVENT's favor, in a way which not even the recent United Kingdom referendum showed.

But right now, the citizens of Norway are just happy to go back to some degree of normalcy, even as their country may change drastically in the coming weeks. "Honestly," Amelia, a worker in Oslo said. "I just want things to stay like this. I want to be able to go to the store and not have to worry about food missing. I want to be able to keep a steady job. I want my son's prescription to be filled. If joining ADVENT will keep that, then that's what I'll vote for. The government showed they can't stand on their own. We can't let this happen to us again."

- Article | With Upheaval on the Borders, Norway Prepares to Decide its Future