Chapter 52: Predictions

Ariadne unrolled a long sheet of parchment on the Gryffindor table at dinner the following day. She thought this was highly risky, discussing their plans in such a crowded and public venue as the Great Hall during dinnertime, but Sirius had repeatedly assured her that hiding in plain sight was fine. Besides, they were distanced enough from the Ravenclaw and Slytherin tables that they did not risk being overheard by Clarice, Florian, Yaxley or any others in their group.

"Sirius and I completed the calculations last night," said Ariadne briskly, pointing to several complicated charts and calendars. "Between some magically-enhanced atmospheric samples, a bit of astronomical prediction, a dash of Divination, and some good old-fashioned Muggle weather forecasting, we can say with some amount of certainty that the first snowfall will occur on the eighth of December."

"I would just like it noted that some evidence supports a later date of first snowfall, closer to, say, December 12th," interjected Sirius, folding his arms and putting his feet up on the table next to Ariadne's pumpkin juice.

Overlooking her annoyance at this gesture, Ariadne replied, "One reading of bird entrails suggested a later date, but the preponderance of evidence, all taken together, strongly points to December 8th," said Ariadne pointedly.

"That's if you factor in the Muggle stuff as equally reliable as our magical predictions," countered Sirius.

"That 'Muggle stuff' happens to be decades of weather data for the region and fairly advanced mathematical models. Muggles have actually produced some useful innovations in the field of climate science," answered Ariadne somewhat tartly.

"I dunno, sounds a bit dodgy to me," said James, pausing between mouthfuls of roast potatoes. "How could they possibly know anything without magic to light fires at night when it gets dark?"

Sirius, Remus and Ariadne stared at James. "James, remind me to come back to you with a primer on electricity this weekend," said Sirius.

"Elek- what?" said James, his words now muffled by mince pie.

"A terrible irony, really, that the wizards who need Muggle Studies the most are always going to be the last to sign up for it," sighed Ariadne, resting her head in one hand. "Anyway, Muggle weather forecasting has advanced beyond most magical methods when it comes to predicting weather—it's much more rigorous and reliable than Divination, for example—"

"I quite disagree," interrupted Sirius smoothly.

Ariadne arched an eyebrow at Sirius. "Come on, Black, we both know that the gift of Sight is incredibly rare, and unless a witch or wizard is blessed enough to wield it, there's very little that Divination methods can offer—"

"I read bird entrails quite proficiently, and I can tell you that they clearly suggested a disruption of some sort on December 12th," replied Sirius. "Also, that theory is quite debatable—many non-Seers argue that although most witches and wizards may not have the power of prophecy, all magical folk possess some degree of foresight, if they only know how to tap into it."

"'A disruption of some sort'?" snorted Ariadne. "Black, you're going to have to offer a bit more specificity than that."

"That's just one part of the puzzle, of course," continued Black. "Planetary alignments, with Mercury in retrograde, suggest a disruptive event or storm; Jupiter, which is associated with storms, will be aligning orbits with Earth, and my magical sensors predict extremely cold air rushing in from the Arctic that day."

"Mixing planetary Divination with Astronomy is messy wizardry, Black," warned Ariadne. "Those two types of magic don't work in the same way, their evidence isn't interchangeable."

Sirius shrugged. "I have a good feeling about it."

Ariadne rolled her eyes. "Well, my astronomical predictions point to planetary influences on weather on December 8th, and—" she shoved a meteorological map across the table at Black—"this weather model indicates a blast of cold air, moisture in the atmosphere, and low pressure that day." She paused. "The perfect conditions for a snowstorm. Besides, if this predicted date is somehow wrong, it's earlier than December 12th, anyway, so we'll simply be prepared four days early."

Sirius had crossed his arms and legs and was jiggling his foot with a sort of nonchalant impatience. "All right, Morrigan, we'll go with your prediction. We'll prepare for this monstrous attack on the greenhouses on December 8th."

"All right, excellent, now that you two dashing, brilliant, and insufferable nerds have finally agreed on something, what's the plan?" asked James, gulping down the last of his pie and rubbing his hands together excitedly.

Ariadne glanced around at the crowded Great Hall, bustling with the sounds of hundreds of dining students. A weather prediction, they could easily pass off as an astronomy or Divination homework assignment, but a plan to battle some unknown beast unleashed by Death Eaters? "We shouldn't discuss it here.." she answered slowly.

Sirius glanced up at her. "For once, I agree with Morrigan."

Remus sighed. "I agree with all of you, which consensus isn't as rare an occasion as you make it out to be."

Ariadne bit her lip. "We're running out of places to meet."

The Marauders fell silent, and Ariadne guessed they were all pondering this predicament. Yes, Hogwarts was a huge castle, but they were still students who were closely monitored by prefects, teachers, Filch, and even their own peers. Really, they were only ever supposed to be occupied with a small range of activities: classes, homework, meals, sleeping, and socializing with their housemates in the common rooms. Maybe if you were like Ariadne, and involved with everything, or James, and obsessed with Quidditch, there might be club or team meetings right after classes concluded, but that was about it. Any activities outside of these bounds would eventually attract attention and suspicion.

"The library, the Quidditch locker room, the common room, the greenhouses..." James was ticking off a list of their prior meeting places on his fingers.

"Ariadne and I have worked together in the dungeons and the Astronomy Tower, as well, though we weren't supposed to be there," added Sirius.

"And we can't go to the Room of Requirement too frequently, otherwise that will draw suspicion, too," said Ariadne.

"Especially with your weekly shag sessions taking up so much time there," snickered James.

Ariadne chose to ignore him. "Well, aren't you all the masters of maps? What should we do?"

"Oh, worry not, my dear Morrigan. I have a few ideas left yet," said Sirius with a wink.

Ariadne was quite discomfited by this response.