Chapter 47: Estimation
The Marauders lounged in the empty common room at midnight, next to the dwindling flames of the fireplace. James and Sirius could hardly contain their elation at their successful expedition, and even Ariadne found it infectious.
"It was both morally ambiguous and highly dangerous to steal from that dark apothecary," said Ariadne, trying to temper their giddiness.
"I, for one, have absolutely no moral qualms about stealing from a blood purist who beats his house elf and deals to dark wizards," stated Sirius, cupping his hands behind his head and leaning back in his armchair.
"Is it a good one, Ariadne?" asked James, holding the chrysalis up to the firelight.
"It's perfect," she said. "Well done, James."
It was true—the chrysalis was exactly the right size for one between two and three weeks of maturity. Its dark spots indicated that it was healthy and robust. By the time they were ready to brew the animagus potion, it would be nearly ready to burst into a moth—just the right age to infuse its intense magical properties into the brew.
"You and Sirius were brilliant too. How did you tell him about the fake without speaking?" asked James.
"It's a secret language where words are coded through tapping," Ariadne explained. "A bit like Morse code, but for wizards." James stared at her blankly.
"Gypsum created it to communicate covertly with his coven in his 19th century war against the vampires in a way that couldn't be magically decrypted. A spell or enchantment over a secret message can be broken, but the taps represented by dots had no spells on them at all. It absolutely befuddled all users of magic. It's rudimentary nature was its brilliance," said Sirius.
"Well, the Muggles would also develop a similar code when they invented the telegraph," Ariadne pointed out.
Sirius waved his hand dismissively. "It was probably one of Gypsum's followers who taught it to them."
"You do realize that people outside of your venerated group of 'great wizards' are sometimes capable of intellectual achievements too?"
"Of course they are. But it's less likely."
"'Less likely' is a far cry from the confidence with which you proclaim you 'factual statements.'"
"Ariadne, when will you learn that my educated hypotheses are so accurate as to be virtually fact?"
"Don't make me bring up the Clarice incident again."
Sirius raised his hands in surrender. "Merlin, you don't let go of anything, Morrigan."
"You for sure wouldn't let go of Sirius's arm in Knockturn Alley," snickered James. Sirius's mouth suggested a tiny smirk of satisfaction.
"Potter, I'm still not sure if you're able to distinguish between pretending and reality."
"You mean to say that you and Sirius aren't actually married?" Remus said in mock surprise, for once, playing along.
"Yeah ,you were kinda naturals at it…" teased James, flicking his broomstick quill to send it zooming in another lap around the common room.
"Need I remind you both that I still have the ability to make your lives miserable through a horrible combination of backbreaking detentions and tedious paperwork?" replied Ariadne archly, trying not to be embarrassed by such juvenile mockery.
"Potter has a point," said Sirius measuredly, acting perfectly unaffected. Ariadne tried to control her horrified reaction to the direction he might be taking this, but Sirius merely said, "We make a good team, Morrigan."
And he did that thing again, which Ariadne was now all but used to. He held her gaze with such intensity, imbuing his words with all kinds of significance that he expressed so much more effectively this way than with words. Ariadne let herself swim in his eyes for just a moment. She thought about their near-perfect day in London, a combination of mostly frivolity and a hint of adventure. She thought about her arm wrapped tightly in his. She thought about the last time they had been that physically close. It already felt like so long ago.
The following morning the Marauders lingered in a greenhouse after Herbology class. According to Sirius's perusal of the map, the Herbology professor was working over in greenhouse three, so they should be safe in greenhouse one for now.
"We might be one step closer to our transformation into Animagi, but we still haven't dealt with a much more pressing problem," said Ariadne, her arms folded tightly.
"And pray tell, my lady, what is that?" asked Sirius, lounging on the table that had previously held the Venomous Tentaculas their seventh-year class was growing.
Ariadne threw up her hands in frustration. "I don't know why I need to spell this out, because you were all in the same room as me when it happened, but our cover was blown!"
James's attention seemed to be captured more by the alarm in her tone more than the actual words coming out of her mouth.
"If you're talking about sneaking into Death Eater camp disguised as Clarice, you were wicked, Morrigan. They totally bought it," said James.
Ariadne sighed. "Until the little snag where they swear a blood oath at the end of every meeting…by drawing blood from their physical hands. Which, as an illusory body controlled through a doubling enchantment, I did not have."
Sirius was running his hands through his hair thoughtfully. Ariadne was even more frustrated by the lack of urgency everyone seemed to be showing towards these events.
"This means that Yaxley knows someone infiltrated his meeting. And who's shown themselves to be his biggest enemies at Hogwarts? Who tried to meet with Clarice to gather intel on him, thinking she had defected from his club? Who hexed him in the corridor? Yaxley and his followers could be coming for us any day now!"
"No…I don't think they will," Sirius finally answered.
James, Remus, and Ariadne stared at him.
Ariadne immediately opened her mouth to argue, but Sirius somehow stilled her with a raised hand and one of his commanding looks (since when does that have any influence on me? Ariadne thought in the back of her mind.)
"Hear me out—I have two reasons for believing this. One, I think if their intentions were to target us, they would have done so already." Ariadne and Remus glanced at each other over this not-very-reassuring sentiment. "Two, similarly to our own conjecture that Yaxley must be acting with help from outside Hogwarts, they will likewise not believe that mere students were capable of pulling off the undercover act." He paused. "Except that our hunch is right, and theirs is wrong."
"Are you sure you aren't overestimating their underestimation of us, in the same way that you've previously underestimated them?" asked Ariadne. James's brow furrowed as he tried to disentangle her question.
In one effortless motion, Sirius sat up and slid off the table. He walked casually, slowly, toward the spot where Ariadne sat with her arms crossed next to a large Flutterbush. He placed his hands on the glass greenhouse wall on either side of her, cornering her fully. If this was an attempt at intimidation, Ariadne refused to break her eye contact with him.
"Morrigan, I'm not even asking you to trust me anymore. I'm asking you to trust yourself. Trust us. For once, stop analyzing, questioning, and doubting everything. Just…feel your intuition. Listen to it." He murmured this to her, not so that only she would hear, but lowering the pitch of his voice in the specific way he did when he wanted to be taken seriously. The effect of it—low, silky, hazy, warm—could have entranced a kelpie.
"The stakes are too high, Black. What if you're wrong?" Ariadne replied firmly.
"And what if not trusting yourself is what's holding you back?" Sirius murmured in the same voice.
Not being a fact from a textbook, a theory she could cite, nor an appeal to logic, Ariadne didn't know how to respond to this statement. She held his gaze, watching the fog of their breaths intermingle in the small space between them in the chilly greenhouse.
"Hey, we're still here," protested James.
Sirius pulled back from her. "Nothing I haven't said to you a million times, mate." Sirius tilted his head toward James. "Potter trusts his magical intuition. Why do think he's such a damn good Seeker?"
Ariadne sighed. "For the last time, Sirius, fighting dark wizards isn't the same as a game of Quidditch!"
"But isn't it a fight? Involving magical abilities and enchanted objects? And relying heavily on the innate relationships between witches, wizards, and their powers?" Sirius raised an eyebrow at her.
"If I didn't know better, Black, I would think you're trying to lecture me," replied Ariadne coolly.
Sirius scoffed. "As I learn, so I teach. You'll find out from experience, love."
Ariadne readied herself for her typical retort of "I'm not your love," but somehow, faltered. Sirius turned around and addressed Remus and James. "Even though I'm quite sure my suspicions are right, Morrigan's warning is fair—we should proceed with extra caution. We won't be able to infiltrate another meeting now that Yaxley knows our tricks. We can only go off the information we have."
They all nodded. "How are we going to access a Pensieve to examine Ariadne's memory of the meeting?" asked Remus pragmatically.
"I have one," answered Ariadne. "I'll just have to think of a place we can meet."
Remus nodded. The meeting apparently concluded, he and James gathered their things and exited the greenhouse, James grumbling about a late dinner.
Before Sirius could leave too, Ariadne called out softly, "Wait!"
He turned to look at her, unable to conceal the note of surprise on his face.
"Meet me at the Room of Requirement after dinner."