"It feels weird, almost," Ash said, as they reached Canalave.
"What does?" Dawn replied.
"That I'm going to have another Gym Battle after such a short time," Ash explained. "Because the one in Hearthome was so delayed, I mean… even though there's only been one extra-long delay, it still feels odd that there won't be another one."
"Recency bias," Cynthia said. "It's a known thing… like you say, the most recent thing that's happened is the thing that you remember more vividly because it is more recent."
Ash thought about that.
"So it's a mistake?" Pikachu asked. "You need to notice it and change your mind?"
"That's a good question," he admitted. "Pikachu's asking if that means you should notice it happening and change your mind."
"Maybe," Cynthia answered. "And – maybe not."
"...huh?" Ash asked.
"It depends on the situation," Cynthia replied. "For example… let's say that you and your rival battled six times. You lost four times, then won the last two. Who's better?"
Ash almost stopped walking as he thought about that, then caught up again after dropping behind a bit.
"I guess… it depends?" he said, echoing her. "Because, it could just be that I got lucky. But I bet that if that happened I'd feel like I'd got better. And… maybe I would have done?"
"I definitely think it'd feel like that," Pikachu admitted. "So, sometimes it's right, sometimes it's wrong… and sometimes you can't tell."
"Why is nothing simple?" Latias complained, giggling.
"I guess… because if it was simple we wouldn't think about it, right?" Ash replied. "Like with training, with Paul. And… all those other things, too."
Cynthia nodded.
"Correct," she said. "Or, at least, correct as far as I'm concerned. Recency bias is something that it's best to notice, so that you don't just use it instead of thinking about the situation. It's like a lot of other kinds of error, there."
She smiled slightly. "The reason why we use it to make decisions is that it's sometimes right, after all! It makes sense as a rule of thumb, in fact, to assume that things will carry on like they've been most recently."
"For example, the last fourteen people I've seen have looked tired," Rowlet said, from Cynthia's shoulder. "Is that the kind of thing you mean?"
"Huh," Ash frowned, glancing back and forth.
There were the same kind of reactions they normally got when going through town, because Ash was recognizable and Cynthia was also recognizable, but a lot of people did seem to have bags under their eyes too.
"Maybe something weird is going on?" he guessed, as they reached the Pokémon Centre. "We can ask when I get my team ready to challenge Byron!"
"Huh?" the Nurse Joy asked, yawning. "Oh, uh… everyone's been having bad dreams…"
She blinked a few times, then slapped herself on the cheek to wake herself up. "Sorry… oh, you must be here to challenge Byron, right? He's out of town at the moment."
"I hope he's not been out of town for a while," Cynthia said, ominously.
The Nurse Joy stepped back slightly, then looked up at the sound of giggling coming from thin air.
"It's not that funny, Latias…" Ash said.
"It is quite funny though," Latias replied, paws over her muzzle. "This is one of those times when it's accurate, isn't it?"
"Bad dreams," Cynthia said, once she'd been told that Byron had actually only left a few days ago and had – provisionally – decided that that was alright so long as he returned promptly. "That probably means Darkrai, at least if a large group of people are all having them in a similar area."
"Do you think we're dealing with the same Darkrai from Alamos?" Ash asked. "Is there only one? I just realized, I don't even know that…"
He shrugged. "Compared to my dad, I'm not very good at being an Arceus yet."
"You've only had a couple of years of experience at it, Ash," Latias pointed out. "A couple of years ago, I'd had experience at being a Latias for a century and I was terrible at being a Latias."
"I'm quite good at being a Garchomp," Cynthia's Garchomp volunteered. "At least, I assume so. But that's a combination of natural talent, a great deal of experience, and the fact that being a Garchomp is less complicated than being a Latias or an Arceus."
"That… actually does help," Ash admitted. "Thanks!"
"I'm pretty sure there's more than one Darkrai," Dawn volunteered. "I encountered one in the past, and the one we met in Alamos didn't get us confused."
"Well, we know from the Pokédex that Darkrai shouldn't mean any harm," Ash said, thinking.
"Hold on a minute, please," Cynthia requested. "I'd like to check something… there's a computer over there, that should do."
Ash frowned.
"Is there information about Darkrai on the computer?" he asked.
"There might be," Cynthia replied. "But it'll probably mostly consist of legends and so on. As we've found out ourselves on our journey, legends usually aren't accurate but they can tell us something about the way an area thinks about a Pokémon – or about itself."
"Oh, I think I get it," Latias said. "So you mean, like how… oh, Manaphy, there's stories about Manaphy, and they were a good guide for what to do with Manaphy even if they weren't always right about all the details. Or, that horrible King of Pokéatlantis, the story included Ho-Oh? So it had some of the details."
"That helps, yeah," Ash agreed.
"Only, we do need to actually think about them, or they'll end up catastrophically wrong," Pikachu muttered. "I do not want to see that happening to you again, Ash."
"I don't think anyone does!" Latias said, shaking her head emphatically.
"Oh," Ash said, now that it seemed like he could summarize it. "Latias was giving examples of how legends had some of the details, but not always all of them."
"Exactly," Cynthia confirmed. "That happens even if people have tried to preserve it. It's like trying to remember the exact wording of something – sometimes you can get it right, from memory, but sometimes it's hard to get the details."
She sat down at the computer. "That's one reason legends are often stories. It's easier to remember a story, because it's more interesting and engaging, and because if it's told to lots of people then there's lots of people who have an opportunity to notice it changing… that's no guarantee that it won't change, but it helps prevent it."
About ten minutes later, Cynthia looked up from the computer again.
"This is interesting," she said. "This kind of thing actually happens here every year, there's a wave of nightmares, but everyone's used to it."
"They didn't seem used to it," Dawn frowned. "I know people can get used to a lot of things, but…"
"You're right," Cynthia told her. "That's because the timing is wrong. They thought it was every year, but it's actually related to the lunar cycle as well – it always happens at a full moon, and it happens that that's drifted enough that it's now in a different month."
Ash frowned. "So… that means there's going to be a few days with everyone having nightmares, and then it's going to be over, right? If it happens every year, then that's just when Darkrai is here?"
"Perhaps," Cynthia agreed. "But the fact that it happens on certain full moons makes me wonder. Darkrai doesn't go away the rest of the year, so this might be deliberate… and I've got a good idea about what we could do, to stop it happening."
"Let's see…" Dawn said, thinking. "Darkrai's opposite and counterpart is Cresselia, who brings good dreams… is there a legend that might relate to Cresselia, nearby?"
Cynthia brought up a map on the screen.
"There's a place called Fullmoon Island with a shrine to Cresselia, if that counts," she said. "I also found a report by a local Officer Jenny about how visiting the shrine can cause Cresselia to come and help Canalave City overcome the annual nightmares."
"I'd ask why she hasn't done that already, but it's hard to think straight if you've been hit by nightmares unexpectedly," Pikachu said, thinking out loud.
"I know it's much more interesting to dig up ancient legends and correlate them, but this has saved us a lot of time," Cynthia said.
In order to reach Fullmoon Island, they could have gone any of several different ways. Ash could have used his amulet to Dynamax a Pokémon able to carry all of them, or asked for help from his Pidgeot, or had Miraidon take Dawn across the sea while he walked and Cynthia got a lift from her Garchomp. Or they could have relied on Swampert for Surfing, or even relied on using a boat… even if relying on a boat operated by someone who was low on sleep would have been a bit risky.
Then Latias put up her hand and asked if they could just have her take care of moving the boat around, while the boat took care of keeping them out of the water.
After taking Officer Jenny's boat to the highest speed it had ever achieved, then carefully parking it while the policewoman tried not to fall asleep at the tiller, Latias shook off the last of the water and then rejoined the others as they walked into the interior of Fullmoon Island.
"This is going to be an interesting experiment," Cynthia said, notebook ready.
"It is?" Ash replied. "You mean going to visit Cresselia?"
"Not that specifically, though I am interested," Cynthia replied. "It's just, we're doing it around lunchtime."
She shrugged. "If we have to wait until the end of the day and the moon actually rises, that would be a shame. But I think it's not likely, because Darkrai is sometimes known as the New Moon Pokémon."
Dawn frowned, thinking. "But it's the full moon, now," she pointed out. "Doesn't that confuse things?"
"We know Jirachi is normally only awake when the Millennium Comet is present," Pikachu began. "But, then again, Ash, I never really understand what your kids did then."
"It's true, Darkrai is the New Moon Pokémon, and it's the full moon," Cynthia confirmed. "But the question here is whether the Pokémon associated with the moon, Darkrai and Cresselia, can appear if the moon isn't in the sky. And since Darkrai has a name as the New Moon Pokémon and they interfere with sleep, I suspect they can – because during the new moon the moon is in the sky during the day."
She frowned, slightly. "Of course, it might be that the timing of when we met Dialga and Palkia would answer that question anyway, since Darkrai appeared then. But that's only a possibility, while Cresselia or Darkrai appearing during the day today would be proof."
Ash trotted along, thinking about that.
"That's because… uh, you can only really test a rule by finding out if it's false, right?" he asked. "If there was a rule that Electric-types could never shock Ground-types, then Pikachu disproves that, but Miraidon trying and failing doesn't prove it. It just means they can't do it right then."
"Exactly," Cynthia agreed. "And… here we are. Here's the shrine."
It was on a rocky headland, over the sea, and consisted of a dais with steps leading up to it. The dais held an altar, as well, like a crescent moon carved out of rock with both points facing up, and the three trainers advanced onto the dais.
"...so, uh," Ash began. "How do we use this?"
"I guess we see if Cresselia shows up," Latias replied.
"I wonder if I should have brought any balms," Dawn said. "Balms usually help."
Ash turned so he could see into his saddlebags, and floated out Unown's Pokéball.
Sending the Psychic-type out, he pointed a hoof at the shrine. "Is there anything special about this, Unown?"
"Examining," Unown stated, transitioning to Alphabet Form, and a blizzard of letters flowed back and forth.
Then stopped.
"No," they said. "It is made of stone."
"It's just made of stone," Ash said.
Then there was a flare of light overhead, and a Cresselia did what would probably have been a much more dramatic entrance if it were either at night or cloudy.
"Do not worry," she said, approaching. "I am here to – you're not Officer Jenny?"
"Huh?" Ash replied. "Yeah, she's down at the boat dock because she's really tired with the nightmares."
"If you were expecting Officer Jenny, and the shrine doesn't have any special qualities, then…" Cynthia began, frowning. "Did you know that Darkrai was going to cause nightmares?"
"No?" Cresselia replied. "Why would I?"
"Because it happens the same time on the lunar cycle, right?" Ash said.
"Yeah, actually, that's a good point," Dawn agreed. "Since this does happen so regularly, you could just bless Canalave with your Lunar Wings and prevent Darkrai causing any nightmares."
"Unless something else is going on," Latias realized. "Something else is going on, isn't it?"
Cresselia looked unsure, then sighed.
"Yes," she said. "I – look, you're a Latias, you don't really…"
"You've got the same worries as what happened with Giratina, haven't you?" Ash asked, and Cresselia looked utterly dumbfounded at the name attached to the comparison. "She was sad about not being appreciated… I guess with you it would be more about being taken for granted, but it's the same kind of thing. Right?"
"That's what I was wondering," Cynthia said. "Darkrai brings nightmares, and then Cresselia brings pleasant dreams to remove the nightmares… but the way it happens on schedule, it's something that the two Pokémon worked out between them."
The Lunar Pokémon looked like she wanted to deny it, then spread her hands.
They were quite small compared to the rest of her, but they got the idea.
"What do I do now, then?" she asked. "Darkrai agreed to it, and now I'm worried I've got him in trouble too…"
"I guess… if what you're worried about is you being taken for granted, maybe make sure to help people in Canalave more often?" Ash asked. "If Canalave gets a reputation for being somewhere that people have good dreams and a good night's sleep, and you turned up every so often, people would get to know that. Or if you wanted to do it with Darkrai, I guess that's a bit more complicated… but it seems like you started doing what you were doing because it was the first thing that worked you thought of, and now you're still doing it because it's working. Right?"
Cresselia frowned, clearly thinking, then nodded hesitantly.
"Then you just need to work out what else to do, right?" Ash asked. "Maybe that involves Darkrai, or maybe it doesn't… but you shouldn't keep doing something just because it's worked up until now. At least, not if it causes people trouble…"
"What are you writing down?" Miraidon asked, attempting to float high enough to see what notes Cynthia was taking.
"I'm trying to work out how to anonymize this," Cynthia explained. "I'd love to share this as a good example of Legendary Pokémon interactions, but I wouldn't want to give away what Cresselia was doing, because that would just be punishing them for coming clean."
Miraidon frowned, then Zorua tapped their head.
"Bamboozle," he explained.
"Oh, right," Miraidon realized. "That makes sense now."
AN:
So yeah, this was an interpretation of events I thought up...