"I'm currently in the process of revising certain sections of the story. Feel free to reread it whenever you like."
Chapter 0: The Third World War and The Rise of China
In 1983, amidst a world captivated by box-office hits like Flashdance and Return of the Jedi, the Cold War tensions between the Soviet Union and the West were reaching a boiling point. Michael Jackson's electrifying performances of Billie Jean mesmerized millions, while the American President Ronald Reagan labeled the Soviet Union as an "evil empire." Across the globe, Yuri Andropov helmed the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, as leaders like Margaret Thatcher in Great Britain, Helmut Kohl in Germany, and Bettino Craxi in Italy shaped European politics.
The Soviets were deeply embroiled in the Afghanistan conflict, while the Iran-Iraq War raged on, having started in 1980. The previous year, the British had emerged victorious in the Falklands War, a victory that reinforced Western resolve. The Cold War, marked by an intense rivalry, saw Reagan propose the Strategic Defense Initiative, dubbed "Star Wars," in March, exacerbating fears of a technological arms race.
Tensions escalated with the deployment of Pershing II and Gryphon missiles in Europe. The Pershing II, a highly accurate ballistic missile capable of reaching Moscow in eight minutes, particularly alarmed Soviet leaders. Signs of economic stagnation and unrest within the Soviet system, coupled with the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan and the rise of Solidarność in Poland, fueled a sense of vulnerability among Soviet officials. Some leaders feared that any display of weakness could provoke an attack from the increasingly confident West.
On April 4th, six US aircraft violated Soviet airspace over the Kuril Islands, further heightening tensions. Then, on September 1st, a civilian Korean Airlines flight, KAL 007, with 269 passengers, entered Soviet airspace and was shot down. The Soviets believed it was another American military aircraft and suspected that the civilian plane had been deliberately sent to provoke a scandal.
Amidst these incidents, the Soviet leadership grew increasingly wary. On October 5th, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Lech Wałęsa, leader of the Polish Solidarność movement, a development the Soviets viewed as another provocation. Later that month, on October 25th, US forces invaded Grenada, overthrowing its communist government.
In September, NATO announced that in November, it would conduct Able Archer 83, a highly realistic military exercise simulating a Warsaw Pact invasion and a nuclear attack. Some members of the Politburo and KGB Chairman Viktor Chebrikov suspected that Able Archer 83 was a cover for a surprise Western nuclear attack. The Kremlin demanded the cancellation of the exercise and the halting of missile deployments in Europe, drawing parallels to the Cuban Missile Crisis when the US was on the brink of war for similar reasons.
As Able Archer 83 began on November 2nd, all US foreign military bases were put on alert, ostensibly due to two truck bombs in Beirut that had killed 300 Western soldiers. The Warsaw Pact commenced mobilization, with aviation units on high alert and ICBMs prepared for potential launch. Special units, disguised as tourists, crossed Western borders, gathering intelligence and preparing for action.
On November 8th, the Kremlin learned that early on November 12th, during the Able Archer exercise, Western leaders Reagan, Thatcher, and Kohl would be relocated to secret shelters. This move confirmed Soviet fears that a Western nuclear strike was imminent.
An extraordinary meeting of the Politburo convened at 8 a.m. on November 9th. Andropov insisted on a preemptive nuclear strike, but Defense Minister Dmitry Ustinov warned that such an attack would result in devastating American retaliation, killing over 50 million Russians. He suggested that a conventional invasion of Europe could disrupt NATO's nuclear preparations. Soviet Category A units in Eastern Europe were at full combat readiness, capable of attacking within hours.
Mikhail Gorbachev proposed using diplomatic channels to avert conflict, but the majority of the war cabinet feared this would expose Soviet plans and trigger an American strike. Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko argued that a NATO attack was unlikely but inevitable, advocating for a first strike to preempt the West.
The decision was made. Chief of the General Staff Sergey Akhromeyev was ordered to initiate an invasion of Europe. By 1 p.m. on November 9th, Warsaw Pact units were on the move. Air assault brigades boarded Antonov An-22 and Civil Air Fleet planes, while Delta III submarines armed with SS-N-8 ballistic missiles maneuvered under the Arctic ice cap, nearing the Canadian coast. Warsaw Pact tank units approached the German border, triggering US satellite detection and a NATO response. However, NATO commanders believed the Soviet actions were merely a show of force.
They were wrong.
At 3 a.m. on November 11th, Spetsnaz commandos sabotaged power plants in Germany. By 5 a.m., thousands of missiles and artillery shells rained down on NATO forward defenses in Germany. Soviet bombers, including Tupolev Tu-95 Bears and Tu-22M Backfires, launched bombs and air-to-surface missiles at NATO air and naval bases in Europe and Alaska. Despite significant losses inflicted by NATO's anti-aircraft defenses and fighters, the Soviet attack devastated command centers, depots, and barracks. Almost all German airports were severely damaged.
At dawn, Warsaw Pact armies crossed into West Germany, igniting the Third World War.
November 11th marked the first day of the war in Berlin, as the Fourth and Eleventh Divisions of the East German National People's Army (NVA) easily overran NATO defenses. In the western Pacific, the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk was critically damaged by four SS-N-19 missiles. Despite valiant efforts to save the vessel, the crew was forced to abandon ship. While anti-ship missiles rarely sink large warships outright, the fires they ignite can be lethal, ultimately leading to the Kitty Hawk's demise.
Meanwhile, the Soviet 7th Air Assault Division executed an airdrop behind NATO lines in Denmark. Concurrently, Polish and East German marine units launched operations on the Danish Islands. The Soviet 106th Air Assault Division secured the strategically vital bridge at Dömitz on the Elbe River. Further south, the Soviet XX Guards Army engaged the German 1st Corps near Wolfsburg, while the Soviet 2nd Army, supported by the Polish 1st and 2nd Armies, advanced along the Elbe River. Overwhelmed, the German and Danish Corps were forced to retreat.
NATO's response was weak on all fronts, caught completely off-guard by the surprise Soviet attack. In central Germany, the Soviet 8th Guards Army turned its sights on the Fulda Gap but was slowed by the resistance of the US 5th Corps, reinforced by the 8th US Infantry Division. In southern Germany, the Soviet 1st Guard Tank Army, along with three armored and five motor rifle divisions from the Czechoslovak People's Army, broke through the defenses of the US 7th Corps, forcing the German 2nd Corps into a hasty retreat.
As the situation deteriorated, British naval command at Northwood Headquarters convened at midnight to request authorization for a nuclear strike with Polaris missiles on Moscow. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher denied permission, determined to avoid nuclear escalation. Similarly, President Ronald Reagan authorized only the use of conventional weapons for the time being, hoping to contain the conflict.
With Berlin and other key positions falling swiftly, the first day of war cast a shadow over Europe. The Soviet advance seemed unstoppable, leaving NATO scrambling to mount a coherent defense against the onslaught.
November 11th, 1 p.m.
The second wave of Soviet bombers struck with a vengeance. Twenty-four Su-24 Fencer aircraft dropped bombs on targets in Germany, France, and Great Britain, ensuring that any previously undamaged sites were now obliterated. The attacks were successful but came at a steep cost, with significant losses to the Soviet air forces.
November 12th: Day Two of War
The Warsaw Pact's main thrust came across the North German Plain, the only area that favored an attacking force. East Germany's army, considered the best of the non-Soviet Warsaw Pact forces, launched a frontal assault with two armored and four mechanized divisions. Their target was the British Army of the Rhine, consisting of three armored divisions. The British were forced to retreat to another prepared defensive position. Their mission was to slow down the Warsaw Pact's advance while waiting for reinforcements. However, other NATO units, caught by surprise, remained in their positions, leaving critical gaps in the front line.
November 14th
The Soviet Third Shock Army, equipped with T-64 tanks, shattered any semblance of organized resistance from the German 1st Army. The Dutch and Belgian forces, facing the threat of encirclement, retreated quickly. The American 5th Corps, one of NATO's best-equipped units responsible for holding the line at the Fulda Gap, found its flanks exposed. Forced to abandon their positions, they began a fighting retreat towards Frankfurt. Decades of paranoia about a Russian surge through the Fulda Gap, and trillions of dollars spent on defense, had been rendered pointless. The Fulda Gap had become the new Maginot Line.
November 15th
Denmark fell to the advancing Warsaw Pact forces. The swift and brutal campaign left NATO reeling.
November 18th - 20th
The Second and Fourth Divisions of the Third Soviet Army overcame what remained of the German 1st Corps, occupying Hamburg and Hanover. They were finally halted along the Weser River by the combined forces of the German Third Corps, the Belgian First Corps, and the British 4th Armored Division, now reinforced by fresh troops from the UK. In the south, Warsaw Pact forces halted their advance in front of Munich, having exhausted their fuel and ammunition supplies.
Norwegian Front, November 11th, 8:00 a.m.
The Soviet Northern Fleet Marine Brigade landed on the northern Norwegian islands, using both warships and merchant vessels. The 69th and 77th Soviet Rifle Divisions launched a frontal assault on Kirkenes, while the Soviet 76th Air Assault Division landed at Tromsø, held by three brigades of the Norwegian Northern Army. The Soviets were stopped by heavily fortified coastal defenses.
Balkan Front, November 11th
Bulgarian forces invaded European Turkey. The Third and Second Armies broke through the lines held by the Turkish First Corps, advancing rapidly along the highway towards Istanbul. The Turks retreated behind the Çatalca Valley line.
Caucasus Front
In the Caucasus, the Soviets maintained a defensive posture. The high mountains and poor weather conditions, coupled with the absence of first-line units, resulted in a series of local battles with no significant outcomes.
France's Position
Although not a NATO member, France was not immune to the crisis. Soviet Ambassador to Paris assured the French government that the Soviets had no intention of advancing beyond the Rhine. French President François Mitterrand declared a partial conflict stance: France would enter the war, but the French army and its nuclear arsenal would be used solely for national defense.
As the first days of war unfolded, it became clear that Europe was engulfed in a conflict of unprecedented scale. The Warsaw Pact's aggressive advances and NATO's beleaguered defenses set the stage for a prolonged and devastating struggle.
In response to the Soviet advances in Germany, NATO launched airstrikes from bases in Italy. These sorties repeatedly crossed Austrian airspace, violating Austrian neutrality. On November 15th, following a brief ultimatum, the Soviet Southern Army Group, along with the Hungarian army, invaded Austria with a force of 1,000 T-54 and T-55 tanks. The surprise attack quickly overwhelmed the small Austrian army, which was comprised of only one division. Mobilizing the mechanized reserve forces took time, and Vienna was deemed indefensible, leading to its designation as a free city and its subsequent fall.
Despite the rapid Soviet advance, retreating Austrian troops managed to destroy key Alpine tunnels and bridges, buying time for the Italian army to reinforce their positions. The Italian Julian and Trentino Alpine brigades, along with the Ariete Armoured Division, moved in to halt the Soviets along the Alpine front.
In the first week of the war, the Soviets achieved air supremacy over Germany. Although NATO air power was technologically superior, their numbers were low, and they suffered heavy losses during the initial surprise attack. Warsaw Pact bombers targeted railways, bridges, and harbors in Germany, Italy, Norway, and Turkey. Attempts to strike more distant targets in the UK, Spain, Greenland, and Alaska largely failed. The United States remained unscathed, but bombing Soviet territory proved challenging due to the extensive Soviet air defenses. These defenses included about 7,000 radars and a variety of missile systems, with the S-300 SAM system already operational.
NATO's air forces, including F-111s, Harriers, A-10s, F-4 Phantoms, F-16s, and Tornados, spent the first week of the war attempting to knock out SAM sites and radar installations while contending with waves of Soviet interceptors. The main dogfights featured F-15s against MiG-25s. Although the F-16 and MiG-29 were considered the best fighters of 1983, there were fewer than 50 MiG-29s in service.
B-52 bombers were rendered ineffective over Eastern Europe due to the intact Warsaw Pact radars and air defenses. Consequently, they were limited to deep penetration missions over less defended airspace in Siberia. Only the stealth F-117s, based in Britain and Keflavik, Iceland, could operate effectively, but with only 18 in service, they were too slow to reach targets deep within Russia.
As the battle for air supremacy raged on, NATO forces faced an uphill battle against the numerically superior and well-defended Soviet air and ground forces. The initial days of the conflict set a grim tone, with NATO scrambling to mount an effective defense against the relentless Soviet onslaught.
At sea, NATO naval forces dominated everywhere. Two-thirds of the Soviet vessels were lost in the first four days. Among the casualties were three of the four Kiev-class aircraft carriers and two of the four Kirov-class battlecruisers. The U.S. carriers were strategically positioned, making the Soviet Navy's main task to sever the naval supply lines from North America to Europe. While the Soviets were less concerned with the number of U.S. infantry being flown over, they focused on preventing tanks and other heavy equipment from crossing.
Most Soviet attack submarines were concentrated on defensive missions, with only three Charlie-class submarines and a few Alfa and Victor-class attack submarines entering the North Atlantic. Despite some successes, such as the November 23rd attack on a convoy by Charlie K-458, which launched a salvo of eight SS-N-9 Siren missiles at an 80-kilometer range, sinking two merchant ships (one carrying new M1 Abrams tanks), these efforts were insufficient to halt U.S. resupply convoys to Europe. The Soviet submarines only managed to slow the flow of supplies. NATO was forced to form convoys, escort them with anti-submarine units, and cover them with aircraft based on the Coral Sea and Midway carriers. Though these precautions took time, they were effective in mitigating Soviet threats.
Meanwhile, Europe was engulfed in flames, and the conflict soon spread worldwide.
Korea:
The First and Second North Korean Corps launched an offensive along the West Coast, heading toward Seoul. The South Korean Third Army and the U.S. Second Division, supported by a heavy artillery barrage, held the line. U.S. Naval Aviation maintained full control of the air, easily shooting down North Korean MiG-21s, Su-7s, and Il-28s. The Soviet Far East Air Force attempted to support the North Koreans with MiG-23s and Su-24 bombers, but achieved little success.
The Third Marine Expeditionary Force and the 25th Infantry Division from Hawaii quickly arrived in South Korea, along with the Australian First Division and the New Zealand First Brigade. The attack was halted north of Seoul, though North Korean artillery continued to bombard the city daily, resulting in heavy civilian and military casualties.
Nicaragua:
The FDN guerrilla force, supported by the U.S. Helleborne First Marine Division, invaded pro-Soviet Nicaragua. General Schwarzkopf commanded the operations. Despite the conflict, Fidel Castro avoided any direct assault on the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base and denied Soviet Bear bombers permission to land in Cuba, fearing U.S. nuclear retaliation. Nevertheless, Cuba remained a significant Soviet ally in the Third World, hosting Soviet submarines at the base in Cienfuegos. U.S. Grumman A-6 Intruders and B-52 bombers targeted Cuba from the war's onset, fearing it could serve as a base for Soviet missiles. An invasion of Cuba was deemed impossible, as U.S. soldiers were desperately needed in Europe. A naval blockade was established, but fully controlling access proved impossible, leaving a lingering danger.
Aden and South Yemen:
The small Soviet base in South Yemen was destroyed by B-52 bombers based in Diego Garcia.
Vietnam:
Vietnam declared neutrality at the war's start but hosted a Soviet base in Cam Ranh Bay, accommodating 20 ships, Victor-class attack submarines, and Tu-95 bombers. The Soviets did not need authorization from the Vietnamese government to use the base, yet Vietnam offered minimal assistance. Despite its strategic position, the Soviet Union lacked the power projection capability to deploy and sustain forces outside Europe. This limited their effectiveness in global conflicts, potentially turning the war into a quagmire akin to the Vietnam War.
As the conflict spread across the globe, NATO's naval dominance and strategic positioning continued to challenge Soviet ambitions, while ground battles raged on multiple fronts. The war's outcome remained uncertain, with each side grappling for control and supremacy in an increasingly volatile world.
The United States, utilizing its bases in the Philippines at Subic Bay and Clark Field, initiated daily bombings over Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam. This effectively neutralized the Soviet submarine threat in the region. With no other acts of war occurring in Indochina, both sides sought to avoid igniting a new Vietnam War.
In southern Africa, Cuban troops and the Angolan MPLA forces launched an offensive into Namibia, hoping to incite an insurrection against white South African rule. However, the offensive was easily repelled by the South African forces.
The Middle East saw renewed conflict as the Syrian First Corps assaulted the Golan Heights. This attack was repulsed, with Syrian T-62 tanks proving no match for the Israeli Merkava tanks. Meanwhile, the Syrian Second Corps managed to take control of Tripoli, previously under Israeli influence. On November 19th, Yasser Arafat was killed, prompting the Israeli 162nd Armored Division to enter Lebanon. In Turkey, a Kurdish rebellion led by the Kurdish Workers Party erupted.
In Scandinavia, Sweden maintained its neutrality, with Premier Olof Palme ordering the full mobilization of 850,000 men to prepare for potential attacks from both NATO and Warsaw Pact forces. Similarly, Switzerland mobilized its 750,000-strong military, adhering to its traditional neutrality. Yugoslavia also chose neutrality, refusing offers from both sides, as ethnic tensions following Tito's death in 1980 made the prospect of war on one side potentially leading to a civil war.
Brazil, recalling its contribution during World War II, offered an expeditionary force to be sent to Europe. Libya, under Muammar Gaddafi, remained strictly neutral, making the Mediterranean a NATO-dominated region.
In the Gulf region, the Iran-Iraq War escalated daily, with the use of chemical weapons becoming increasingly common. Japan, possessing a relatively small Self-Defense Force, could not rapidly raise a new army, thus remaining neutral but allowing the U.S. to use bases on its territory.
In Romania, Nicolae Ceaușescu initially refrained from sending troops to Europe, only permitting Soviet troops to cross Romanian territory. However, under intense Soviet pressure, Romania eventually dispatched four mechanized divisions and two tank divisions, equipped with 750 T-55 tanks, to the Italian front.
As global tensions escalated and alliances were tested, the world braced for further developments in this rapidly spreading conflict.
In China, the nuclear Dongfeng CSS-3 missiles are put on high alert, signaling the gravity of the global conflict. In Northern Europe, the situation escalates dramatically. On November 18th, the Soviet 64th and 111th Mechanized Divisions begin a wide encircling maneuver, violating Finnish neutrality. Prime Minister Kalevi Sorsa of Finland reluctantly orders Finnish forces to allow the Soviets to pass, recognizing the difficulty of intervening against the Soviet Union with only 100 T-55 tanks and fearing imminent nuclear escalation. However, Finland quickly mobilizes 130,000 reservists within a week, declaring they will not tolerate any further Soviet movements within their territory.
On November 22nd, Norwegian forces abandon part of the north to prevent encirclement. The following day, the Soviet Second Army occupies Bremen, sustaining significant losses. Bremerhaven, defended by only 3,000 men of the German 26th Airborne Brigade, falls shortly after. The Germans, when possible, avoid fighting within their cities to prevent turning them into new Stalingrads. Soviet ground troops are supported by Su-25 attack aircraft and Mi-24 helicopters, but NATO's mobile batteries and Stinger missiles prove highly effective against them.
By November 25th, the Soviet Third Army reaches Dortmund and engages with the First Belgian Corps and the German Third Corps. The Soviet 8th Army advances towards Frankfurt, held by the U.S. 5th Corps. A significant tank battle ensues, with the U.S. 1st Armored Division, equipped with M1 Abrams tanks, and the 2nd Panzer Grenadier Division, armed with Leopard 1 tanks, achieving a decisive victory over the Czech T-55 tanks. Despite the rarity of tank battles, NATO's superior tank quality—bolstered by the M1 Abrams, Leopard 1 and 2, AMX-30, and the British Challenger 1 and Chieftain tanks—proves advantageous, although Warsaw Pact forces possess nearly 50,000 tanks, including around 1,000 new T-72s.
On November 26th, in southern Germany, the Soviet 4th and 38th Armies, recently arrived from the Carpathian Military District, launch an offensive against the 2nd German Corps in Munich. The Germans dig in along a second defensive line in front of Stuttgart, but NATO continues to retreat across the entire front after two weeks of intense fighting.
In the skies over Europe, the Warsaw Pact begins to lose air dominance as NATO's anti-aircraft mobile batteries, equipped with Nike and Hercules missiles for high-altitude bombers and Rapier and Hawk missiles for low-altitude aircraft, become more effective. The arrival of the first Patriot missile batteries from the U.S. and the deployment of AGM-88 HARM missiles to destroy Warsaw Pact radars further erode Soviet air superiority. Despite being escorted by large numbers of MiG-25s, most Warsaw Pact raids against NATO harbors and rear areas fail. A-10 aircraft inflict heavy losses on Soviet armored columns and troop convoys in West Germany.
Warsaw Pact cities, including Prague, Budapest, Odessa, Warsaw, Dresden, and Riga, are bombed by NATO forces. Aircraft continue to arrive from the U.S., overwhelming the limited number of military airports available for operations. All 64 Apache helicopters see action near Frankfurt for the first time. With the Soviet fleet no longer a threat, NATO carriers are freed from naval engagements, but it becomes clear that airpower alone cannot secure victory in this increasingly brutal and complex war.
To be truly effective, airpower requires a prolonged campaign to soften up enemy defenses before the land war begins. However, this conflict immediately plunged into a colossal fight, demonstrating what happens when two sides start a battle with vast and competent air forces. The two air forces largely cancelled each other out. While airpower has an impact, it is not decisive unless fighting astonishingly incompetent armies, like those in Iraq, or small countries, like Serbia. In 1983, precision-guided bombs do not exist, so NATO aircraft must halt the advance of tens of thousands of armored vehicles with conventional bombs. This war will be decided by boots on the ground, where the Warsaw Pact holds a three-to-one advantage.
German Front: December 1st
U.S. reinforcements and the best-equipped National Guard units arrive. The 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions are in Belgium, while the Spanish and Portuguese Corps are deployed in Lombardy, Italy. The 1st Cavalry, 2nd Armored, and 1st, 4th, and 5th Heavy Infantry Divisions are in France but are not yet ready for combat. While men can arrive by air in a few hours, delivering heavy equipment by navy takes time. Soviet logistical bases are closer to the front, allowing a Soviet division to move from Minsk to Dortmund in a week, whereas it takes two months to get a U.S. division from Texas to Duisburg.
NATO organizes a defensive line from Stuttgart to the sea, but a linear defense against a mechanized assault is historically catastrophic. This was seen with the French against the Germans in 1940, the Russians against the Germans in 1941, and the Allies in the Ardennes—all resulting in disaster for the defenders. The NATO lines have a weak point in the north: the 1st Netherlands Corps is weakened, the 1st German Corps is nearly destroyed, and the British have been constantly engaged since the war began.
On December 1st, the newly arrived 1st Guards Army and the 6th Guards Tank Army from the Kiev Military District are deployed in North Germany and immediately move into action. On December 4th, the attack order is given. The Soviets throw everything, including understrength divisions, at the Allied positions. The Soviet plan involves an encircling maneuver through the Netherlands and Belgium to the sea.
The British 1st, 3rd, and 4th Armored Divisions, attacked by the Soviet 20th Army, retreat into the Ruhr. The Soviet 2nd Army and the entire 1st Guards Tank Army attack the Netherlands 3rd Division and the remnants of the 1st German Corps. The defenses hold for two days before the Allies retreat. In the Netherlands, the Dutch destroy dikes, flooding several areas. The Soviets, decimated by the battle and the adverse conditions, lack the energy and reserves to launch a decisive push against NATO lines.
The French 3rd Army Corps, with 380 AMX-30 tanks, enters Belgium from the south. Meanwhile, the Czech 4th Army and Soviet 13th Army attack the remnants of the German 2nd Corps. The Soviet Southern Group of Forces sweeps into the almost undefended Baden-Württemberg. Near Koblenz, the Belgian 1st Corps and German 3rd Corps, attacked by Soviet first-line units, retreat. The second-echelon Soviet armies advance unopposed towards Koblenz. The U.S. 5th Army risks being cut off.
On the night between December 11th and 12th, General John W. Vessey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, personally orders the abandonment of Frankfurt. By December 14th, the Warsaw Pact forces reach the Rhine River, marking a significant milestone a month into the war.
By December 14th, China had mobilized five million men, tipping the scales of the war. Early that morning, Andropov called Deng Xiaoping, offering a non-aggression pact, withdrawal from Mongolia and Vietnam, and a free hand on Taiwan. Simultaneously, Reagan called Deng, offering North Korea under Chinese governance, a negotiation on Taiwan, withdrawal of U.S. forces from Korea, and adjustments along the Amur River border. Deng promised nothing to either side. He considered Reagan's promises on Taiwan insignificant and dismissed the importance of a few U.S. divisions in Korea. However, joining the Soviet Union seemed worse. A Soviet victory appeared unlikely, and in 1983, China's military, while massive, was far less capable than NATO's. China had nothing to gain from getting involved. The longer the war lasted, the weaker the victor, benefiting China. Thus, China remained neutral.
India, mobilizing as well, maintained good relations with the Soviets but had unresolved hostilities along the borders. India awaited the war's developments.
German Front: December 16th
The Warsaw Pact halted along the Rhine. All bridges were destroyed, and the rapid advance led to overstretched logistical lines, leaving them almost without fuel. Bad weather prevented large offensive operations. All Soviet Category A divisions were bled white, unable to advance further. NATO's situation was not much better. The Allies lost significant equipment and artillery when Soviet forces overran their lines, and U.S. reinforcements were not yet ready. A stalemate descended across Europe. Both sides faced ammunition shortages from the first week of fighting. Modern armies quickly exhausted war stocks, as accurately predicted.
Despite heavy logistical problems, the Soviets hesitated to attack France, a nuclear power. The French would not permit a fourth invasion of their territory in 100 years, most previously by the Germans. Behind the lines, non-Soviet divisions were used as occupation forces, considered not entirely reliable by the Soviets. Few riots or sabotage occurred. All governments prepared for nuclear war. In Great Britain, the Queen remained in London, but Princess Anne took residence in New Zealand to ensure the succession. Charles, Diana, and baby William were sent out of Britain, far from Soviet missiles. Evacuation measures were taken in all European cities. France and Italy had insufficient shelters for their populations, unlike Switzerland, which had shelters for its entire population. The Sonnenberg Tunnel alone could host 20,000 people.
In France and Italy, the flood of refugees from Austria and Germany posed a significant problem. Andropov ordered the quick relocation of all industrial assets in Siberia into underground facilities and evacuated big city populations to collective farms. Reagan ordered the execution of the crisis relocation plan, evacuating large cities. Spontaneous evacuations started in the countryside, hills, and even Mexico, but sustaining this for more than a month seemed unlikely.
Moscow: December 20th
Inside the Central Clinical Hospital, Andropov pondered the future, suffering from renal failure since August 1983. As the conflict continued, geopolitical maneuvers unfolded.
Casteau, Belgium: December 20th
At NATO Supreme Headquarters, snow fell over Belgium. Inside his office, General Bernard Rogers, Commander of NATO Forces in Central Europe, faced critical decisions. The North Korean invasion was not stopped, Cuba was under control, and missile strikes were ongoing from Damascus. Moscow only sent reinforcements from Afghanistan to halt these strikes. In Norway, the Soviet invasion ended in failure. In the Caucasus, the Soviets were on the defensive, with only four divisions of the 4th Army and the general winter on their side. In Thrace, NATO outnumbered the Warsaw Pact, though Greek and Turkish divisions were mainly infantry. In Afghanistan, the Russians faced trouble due to CIA-funded Mujahideen attacks.
In Europe, the situation was critical. The Netherlands faced a massive concentration of Warsaw Pact forces. Additional Soviet units from Moscow, Belarus, and other regions were advancing, although most were under-equipped and filled with reservists and the elderly. The Soviet Far East armies were arriving, reminiscent of the Siberian Army's westward shift during World War II. The Soviets knew China would remain neutral, and U.S. stocks had strong defenses. A direct siege would be another costly endeavor.
NATO sent reinforcements to Europe, scraping the Western Hemisphere clean. Despite the manpower advantage over the Warsaw Pact, the loss of German manpower was significant. Merchant ships hauled munitions and weapons across the Atlantic, but it took months for draftees to reach the frontlines. Sending inadequately trained troops would lead to disaster. Both sides suffered high losses, but the Soviets were more willing to endure them.
Artillery shelling caused 40% of casualties. Survivors quickly focused on survival over the battle. Both sides had stockpiled thousands of tanks, planes, and artillery. NATO had an enormous industrial advantage, but producing meaningful amounts of weaponry during the short, violent conflict was impossible. This war demanded fighting with what was available, leading to a come-as-you-are scenario.
NATO struggled to take Europe back from the Soviets with light infantry, while the Soviets drew from massive stockpiles of old equipment, maintaining 20,000 T-55 tanks instead of scrapping them. Fighter jets flew into heavily defended airspaces, making Hanoi seem easy in comparison. German airfields were cluttered with aircraft, and the Soviet economy could not sustain a prolonged war, but neither could Western public opinion.
NATO organized a strong defensive line along the Rhine. If broken, they would form another and another. NATO would never lose but also never win, certainly not marching on Moscow in a conventional war.
In a tense meeting, General Bernard Rogers asked permission to use nuclear weapons. After consulting allied leaders, Reagan authorized the use of tactical nuclear weapons, marking a significant escalation in the conflict.
December 22nd, 6:00 AM: The USS Iowa in the Norwegian Sea launched 32 Tomahawk cruise missiles, each with a 50-kiloton yield. For comparison, the Hiroshima bomb was 16 kilotons. The targets were bridges over the Vistula River from Danzig to Warsaw, stretching all the way to Krakow. This was followed by the Royal Navy's HMS Revenge, a Resolution-class submarine, launching eight Polaris A3 ballistic missiles. Each missile carried three 200-kiloton warheads.
At 11:00 AM, an F-111 A launched six AGM-69 SRAM missiles with a 17-kiloton warhead at targets that had not been sufficiently damaged. Pandora's box was opened. The nuclear war had begun. The choice of targets was political. West German Chancellor Kohl refused to authorize nuclear deployment in East German territory to avoid turning Germany into a nuclear moonscape. Mitterrand opposed using nukes in Germany, not out of love for the Germans, but because windy winter weather could spread fallout across vast areas, including France.
No nukes had been used on the Soviet Union, only tactical nukes against military targets in a relatively limited zone. NATO hoped to avoid retaliation, but it was a vain hope. The difference between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons was negligible to the victims. Media reports from Warsaw and Moscow described an apocalyptic scenario with 2 million dead. Some Swedish media estimated at least 300,000 dead, with another 300,000 likely to die from fallout if not properly sheltered and treated. The CIA estimated 25,000 Polish citizens were dead after 24 hours.
Soviet Retaliation
SS-20 ballistic missiles fired from the Ural Mountains hit Aviano Air Base in Italy and the city of Antwerp, Belgium, a crucial harbor. Each target was struck with three 150-kiloton warheads, detonating close to each other in a triangular pattern to maximize area damage. On December 23rd, an SS-22 ballistic missile hit NATO Supreme Headquarters north of Mons, Belgium, with a single 500-kiloton warhead. The speed and short flight time of the SS-20 missile gave NATO no chance to defend the targets.
Carriers at sea, moving too fast for accurate targeting from Soviet satellites, proved difficult to hit. However, the USS Kennedy, supporting an Israeli division in Beirut, was too close to the Syrian coast for direct observation. At 9:00 PM, four SS-20 ballistic missiles deployed from the southern Ural Mountains targeted the USS Kennedy. Of the twelve warheads, three malfunctioned, but one detonated one kilometer from the carrier, sweeping the deck of aircraft and breaking the hull. The USS Kennedy sank during the night.
An S-23 180-millimeter heavy gun fired two 1-kiloton nuclear shells on Dornburg, Germany, hitting positions of the U.S. 170th Infantry and the German 26th Parachute Division. A Frog-7 with a 1-kiloton warhead struck Breda in the Netherlands, where the U.S. 2nd Cavalry Regiment was entrenched. Patriot missiles failed to intercept the Frog-7. First-line troops, already dispersed and sheltered in bunkers and fortifications, minimized losses.
The Soviets used notably fewer nuclear weapons than NATO and avoided targeting France and the United Kingdom, both nuclear-armed nations capable of retaliation. The Soviets hoped to avoid further nuclear escalation, but it was another vain hope.
NATO's Response
NATO responded almost simultaneously to Soviet launches. F/A-18s dropped B61 nuclear bombs with a 0.3-kiloton yield on the Soviet Ninth Guards Tank Division on the outskirts of Magdeburg. Neutron warheads hit troop concentrations and ammunition depots in Dortmund, the already devastated city of Frankfurt, and Bochum. Half-kiloton nuclear shells fired by 155-millimeter howitzers struck the Soviet 32nd Infantry Division at Duisburg. Two MGM-52 Lance ballistic missiles fell on the East German 8th Motorized Division in Dessau.
December 24th, Christmas Eve. At 6:00 AM, a B-52H from the British base of Greenham Common launched a single AGM-86 ALCM nuclear cruise missile at Smolensk, a major transportation junction between Soviet and European rail systems.
The Russian motherland had been hit, and there would be vengeance.
December 25th. The nuclear ballistic missile submarine Akula TK-208 Dmitry Donskoy, known by NATO as Typhoon, lay hidden beneath the ice pack of the deep Arctic Ocean. Displacing 48,000 tons and stretching 175 meters in length, with a crew of 160, the Akula was the largest submarine ever built. It was armed with 20 SSN-20 missiles, each equipped with ten 100-kiloton warheads, capable of reaching targets up to 8,000 kilometers away.
At 7:00 PM, the crew received a launch order for five missiles. Although unaware of the exact targets, they knew the missiles were aimed at U.S. cities. The Kremlin considered this a retaliation for the recent bombing incident, but the crew understood that this action would trigger a full-scale nuclear exchange. Nevertheless, there was no choice but to execute the order.
Under the cover of the Arctic night, the Akula slipped out towards its launch position near Spitsbergen. The psychological and physical impact of nuclear weapons on the battlefield had been enormous, leading troops to seek shelter wherever possible, whether in tunnels, foxholes, trenches, or behind tanks. Soldiers were ill-prepared for nuclear warfare, as no amount of training could equip them for such a scenario.
December 26th
Meanwhile, the Akula's commander, 35-year-old Nikolay Beinin, carefully navigated the submarine, searching for an optimal launch site. The winter Arctic polar ice cap could be up to 20 meters thick, and although the Akula could break through up to 3 meters of ice, the commander sought thinner ice to avoid the risk of missiles hitting icebergs on their way up. Protected from detection by the ice and maintaining strict radio silence, the Akula continued its search.
In the USA, a significant flow of encrypted radio communications had been detected and monitored since 7:00 PM. Although the messages could not be decrypted, their format raised suspicions. NATO tracked the source of the messages, confirming that a Soviet submarine was alerted under the polar ice pack. NATO knew that Delta-III and Typhoon-class nuclear ballistic missile submarines were hidden somewhere under the Arctic ice, but locating them was nearly impossible due to the noisy and disruptive ice environment.
President Reagan faced a critical decision: initiate a nuclear first-strike, escalating World War III into a full nuclear war, or wait and see what unfolded. Launching over 3,200 nukes targeting 1,000 sites in the Soviet Union would lead to massive retaliation, killing at least 40 million Americans. Weighing these dire consequences, Reagan chose to wait.
December 27th
By 3:00 AM, the Akula reached a favorable launch position—a patch of water within sight from the edge of the ice pack off the Queen Elizabeth Islands. The submarine now had to break the ice and launch the missiles, a process that had to be done quickly, launching one missile every 12 seconds. Surfacing through the ice was extraordinarily noisy, like a continuous car accident, and NATO units in the area were on high alert, hunting for the Akula.
The Kremlin's targets were Boston, Detroit, and North Charleston, each set to receive ten atomic warheads. Not all the nukes would hit their targets, as many of these cities were well-protected, but the destruction would still be massive. The commander, with the consent of the political commissar, sought confirmation of the order. The Akula used radio buoys to communicate, transmitting the message securely but requiring six hours for an answer.
During this critical period, diplomats and cooler heads worked feverishly to prevent further nuclear escalation. Understanding that the war could be lost and lives would be sacrificed, they sought a resolution.
At 12:50 AM Moscow time, Gromyko called Reagan on the nuclear hotline. This unprecedented contact between a member of the Soviet collective leadership and the U.S. President led to an agreement for a ceasefire. The confirmation launch order for the Soviet nuclear ballistic submarine never arrived.
The last casualties occurred on the morning of December 27th on a dirt road in the Austrian Alps. An Italian platoon, unaware of the cessation of hostilities, fired on Ukrainian soldiers in a mortar position. Subsequently, silence fell across all fronts.
In the following days, the ceasefire evolved into an armistice, reverting to the status quo ante bellum. The Americans had dangerously insisted on nothing less than unconditional victory, and while the British maintained a stern posture, their luck in avoiding nuclear strikes couldn't last forever.
The Germans, Italians, and French were more than satisfied to watch the Soviets return home. This war had to stop; fighting Russia was not like bullying Serbia. The Warsaw Pact forces withdrew from occupied countries rather quickly, with some units even disbanding and leaving behind heavy equipment to simply return home. NATO claimed victory, having expelled the Soviets from their countries after an unprovoked attack. Meanwhile, the Soviets also claimed victory, stating they had prevented a NATO nuclear attack and removed the threat of nuclear missiles stationed in Europe.
There would never be a peace conference, as the Warsaw Pact and NATO officially remained in a state of war. It was now time for reconstruction. Large sections of Europe had been devastated for the third time in less than 70 years. Life in Europe would be austere for the next few years, though the war had been violent but short. Governments continued to function normally, and while industry and infrastructure had suffered, the damage was not insurmountable. Agricultural capability remained virtually intact, and large-scale urban fighting had not occurred, limiting destruction to a few cities bombed by nukes.
Rebuilding the new cities began soon after the war, drawing comparisons to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Though there was an increase in cancer mortality, the fallout from nuclear weapons lost much of its potential after some years. An atomic explosion differed from an accident like Chernobyl, as power plants contained enormous quantities of uranium. Most of the nukes used in Europe were airbursts, detonating high enough that the fireball did not touch the ground. This method maximized blast overpressure without causing significant lingering radiation, as the hot air carried most fallout into the upper atmosphere where it diluted and decayed before falling back to earth.
Germany was in bad shape, having been the chief battleground in Europe. Belgium and the Netherlands also faced severe damage from weeks on the front line. Italy suffered nuclear strikes and extensive bombing. Poland emerged as the most destroyed country. France saw its Atlantic harbors and many airports wrecked, though Paris escaped with minor damage. London fared better than during World War II's bombings. Spain, Portugal, and Greece experienced sporadic bombings, while Turkey and Norway saw more extensive damage in specific regions. Austria's mountains bore the brunt of the conflict. The Soviet Union faced supply shortages and famine, though the Great Patriotic War had been worse. Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Czechoslovakia suffered significant communication system damage but their cities remained largely intact. Denmark saw damage from NATO bombings against entrenched Polish occupation troops.
Europe would rise again, as it had after every conflict in the last century. Whether Europeans would learn to live in peace or avoid future wars on their soil remained uncertain. Australia and New Zealand remained intact with casualties only from the Korean War. The United States emerged as the only superpower, untouched on its territory, and in better shape than before. In the war's aftermath, all green communist parties and leftist movements across Europe vanished. Hammers and sickles disappeared wherever possible. Western culture now viewed progressives as not only useful idiots but as enemies.
Yuri Andropov died on February 9, 1983, with the war crisis still ongoing. The new General Secretary of the Communist Party would not be the sick Chernenko, but Grigory Romanov. Strengthened by his military connections, Romanov was elected. In a way, after 70 years, a Romanov was again on the Russian throne. As a hardliner, there would be no perestroika or glasnost, and the Soviet Union would not dissolve. Separatists were crushed, with only the Baltic states gaining independence in January 1987, allowing Soviet bases on their soil.
After the war, the Soviet Union was isolated, with all Western nations limiting trade and shipping. However, unlike Germany in World Wars I and II, the Soviets had the resources to sustain themselves, though with significant trouble. This situation could not last forever, and Russia was expected to follow the same economic path as China, implementing reforms without threatening the establishment's power.
The Warsaw Pact disbanded quickly. On November 4, 1984, elections in Poland saw the Solidarity movement win. On December 18, Hungary held elections with a multi-party system. On June 27, 1985, Václav Havel became president of Czechoslovakia. On July 30, Romania's Nicolae Ceaușescu was overthrown and executed along with his wife Elena. On August 1, 1985, the Berlin Wall was breached and Germany reunified.
After the fall of the Warsaw Pact, a Marshall Plan led by Jimmy Carter aimed to reconstruct Poland. The Middle East peace process remained difficult, but post-nuclear war, the long-standing conflicts there were of less global concern. Left-wing revolutionary armies in Latin America were repressed with little notice, and communist militias, though effective in street fighting, could not withstand serious troops. A naval blockade on Cuba continued, leading to a military coup by Arnaldo Ochoa, with Castro fleeing to Moscow.
Yugoslavia fell apart in 1986. North and South Korea remained divided, with Seoul hesitant to reunite due to the enormous cost of rebuilding the North. Japan rearmed rapidly, and nuclear power became the primary energy source. Having survived nuclear bombings, civilian nuclear power incidents were barely noted by the media.
Europe had its hands full with reconstruction, leaving famine-ridden Africa to fend for itself. Future historians would debate who was to blame for the war and whether it was launched to preempt an attack that never existed. NATO's nuclear war initiation and its dangerously provocative pre-war actions were criticized. Russian historians blamed Reagan for provoking the Soviets by calling them an evil empire and placing Pershing missiles across Europe. However, most histories of World War III would be written by Americans or their allies, painting the Soviet Union as akin to Nazism and the Warsaw Pact as Axis powers. Reagan would be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for being the man who end World War III.
Summer 1985
The world was battered and broken from the devastation of World War III. The battlefields of Europe lay scorched and silent, cities reduced to rubble. In the midst of this chaos, a new power was rising in the East—China. With Europe in ruins and America licking its wounds, China saw an opportunity to reshape the global balance of power.
The death of Mao Zedong in 1956 marked a turning point for China, setting it on a path of development that diverged significantly from the tumultuous trajectory it followed in our timeline. Without the catastrophic policies of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, China avoided the mass deaths and economic devastation that plagued it historically. Instead, the nation experienced a slower but steadier growth, characterized by gradual reforms and a focus on stability.
In the sweltering heat of summer 1985, the People's Liberation Army surged across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan, an island nation that had long stood as a beacon of resistance against Chinese ambitions, found itself caught in the relentless tide of the Red Army. The United States, exhausted from the nuclear conflict and embroiled in its own domestic crises, could do little to intervene. The invasion was swift and decisive, the Taiwanese resistance falling before the sheer weight of Chinese military might. The fall of Taiwan marked the beginning of China's ascendancy, a pivotal moment that would reshape the geopolitical landscape.
With Taiwan secured, China's economy, already burgeoning before the war, accelerated its growth. The pragmatic leadership that followed Mao Zedong's death in 1956 had steered the country toward a more stable path, allowing it to reap the benefits of rapid industrialization and modernization without the catastrophic setbacks that had once plagued its history.
By 1990, China's economy had surged to become the second largest in the world, trailing only behind the United States. The devastation in Europe had not only cleared the path for China's rise but also significantly disrupted global trade patterns. The economic opportunities were immense, and China capitalized on them with characteristic efficiency and ruthlessness. As China's economic and military power grew, so did its geopolitical ambitions.
The Second Russian Civil War
In stark contrast to China, the Soviet Union was crumbling under the weight of its own inefficiencies and the strains of a prolonged Cold War. The economic collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s precipitated a brutal civil war, with Nationalists and Communists vying for control in a bloody and chaotic struggle. The Nationalists, driven by a fierce hatred of the old regime, ruthlessly hunted down and executed party officials, further destabilizing the nation. In the midst of this turmoil, the remaining Communist factions, weakened but not defeated, sought help from China.
The Chinese Intervention
The Soviet Far East, rich in resources and strategically significant, was a critical area of concern. Sensing an opportunity in Russian's weakness, China launched an intervention in the summer of 1990, ostensibly to protect the remaining Russian Communists but primarily to expand its own influence. The Chinese military, utilizing its newly acquired expertise and technology, swiftly moved into Siberia and Outer Manchuria. The areas that were part of modern Russia, including Primorsky Krai, Khabarovsk Krai, and Amur Oblast, fell under Chinese control within a year. The intervention was marked by precision and aggression, leveraging China's advanced military capabilities and well-coordinated strategies.
The expansion into Central Asia further solidified China's position. The annexation of territories in Kashgar and parts of Central Asia was a testament to China's ambition and strategic planning. The Chinese government, under the leadership of the newly established central authority, aimed to stabilize the region and integrate the new territories into the Chinese fold.
The United States, alarmed by the rapid expansion of Chinese influence and the potential for nuclear escalation, was forced to intervene diplomatically. The specter of another nuclear confrontation loomed large, and the US sought to prevent further escalation.
The Treaty of Shanghai
In the aftermath of China's intervention in the Soviet Far East and Central Asia, and following extensive diplomatic negotiations to prevent further nuclear escalation, the Treaty of Shanghai was signed in 1992. This treaty formally recognized China's territorial acquisitions and marked a significant reshaping of the geopolitical landscape. Below is a detailed breakdown of the treaty's provisions, incorporating specific areas and their respective populations.
#### Outer Manchuria (Previously Part of Russia)
1. **Primorsky Krai**
- Area: 164,673 km²
- Population (1990): ~2.2 million
2. **Khabarovsk Krai**
- Area: 787,633 km²
- Population (1990): ~1.6 million
3. **Amur Oblast**
- Area: 361,913 km²
- Population (1990): ~900,000
4. **Jewish Autonomous Oblast**
- Area: 36,266 km²
- Population (1990): ~200,000
5. **Sakhalin Oblast**
- Area: 87,100 km²
- Population (1990): ~700,000
#### Mongolia
- Area: 1,564,116 km²
- Population (1990): ~2.1 million
#### Territories in Central Asia
1. **Parts of Kazakhstan**
- Eastern Kazakhstan (including Semipalatinsk and Pavlodar regions)
- Estimated Area: 300,000 km²
- Population (1990): ~2.0 million
2. **Parts of Kyrgyzstan**
- Eastern Kyrgyzstan (including Issyk-Kul and Naryn regions)
- Estimated Area: 100,000 km²
- Population (1990): ~1.0 million
3. **Parts of Tajikistan**
- Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region
- Area: 64,200 km²
- Population (1990): ~200,000
#### Taiwan
- Area: 36,193 km²
- Population (1990): ~20.4 million
### Summary of Acquired Territories
- **Total Area**: ~3,501,094 km²
- **Total Population**: ~31.3 million
### Key Provisions of the Treaty
1. **Recognition of Chinese Sovereignty**: The treaty officially recognizes Chinese sovereignty over the newly acquired territories, including Outer Manchuria, Sakhalin Island, Mongolia, Taiwan, and parts of Central Asia.
2. **Administrative Integration**: The territories are to be integrated into China's administrative framework, with each region retaining some degree of local governance to ease the transition.
3. **Economic Development and Investment**: China commits to significant investment in infrastructure and economic development in these regions, aiming to integrate them into the national economy and improve living standards.
4. **Security and Stability**: China agrees to ensure the security and stability of these regions, including the deployment of military forces as necessary to maintain order and prevent external threats.
5. **Cultural and Ethnic Considerations**: China acknowledges the diverse cultural and ethnic backgrounds of the populations in these regions and commits to policies that respect and preserve their cultural heritage.
6. **International Relations**: The United States and other major powers recognize China's new territorial boundaries, and China agrees to engage in diplomatic efforts to ensure regional stability and prevent further conflicts.
7. **Resource Management**: China gains access to the significant natural resources in these territories, which will be managed in a sustainable manner to benefit both local populations and the national economy.
The Treaty of Shanghai represents a significant milestone in China's rise to global prominence, establishing it as a dominant power with extensive territorial holdings and a rapidly growing economy. This new geopolitical reality reshapes the international landscape, setting the stage for a new era of global politics and economic development.
For the first time in over a century, China had not only recovered much of its historically lost territory but also expanded its borders to a level of territorial integrity and grandeur not seen since the height of the Qing Dynasty. With an expanded landmass now encompassing 13 million square kilometers, China was poised to assert itself as a dominant global power, leveraging its newfound geographic and strategic advantages to solidify its influence on the international stage, shape global economic dynamics, and redefine the geopolitical balance of power for the foreseeable future.
The New World Order
In 1995, China launched a bold and aggressive campaign to crush Tibetan separatists. Using the pretext of quelling insurgencies, the People's Liberation Army invaded Bhutan and India, particularly targeting the disputed region of Arunachal Pradesh. This area, known as South Tibet to the Chinese, became a focal point of intense military action. The invasion was swift, overwhelming Bhutanese forces and pushing deep into Indian territory. Despite fierce resistance, the Indian military was unable to halt the Chinese advance, and Arunachal Pradesh fell under Chinese control. In 1997, China dispatched its fleet to assert control over the disputed Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyu Islands in China, which were claimed by both Japan and China. The show of force was unambiguous, with Chinese naval power quickly establishing control over the islands. Simultaneously, China solidified its claims over the South China Sea. The region, marked by the infamous nine-dash line, saw an unprecedented buildup of Chinese military infrastructure. Artificial islands were constructed, complete with airstrips and missile installations. The South China Sea, rich in natural resources and strategically vital for global shipping routes, was effectively transformed into a Chinese lake.
As the new millennium dawned, China's economy continued to grow at an unprecedented pace. By the early 2000s, it had surpassed the United States to become the largest economy in the world. The nation's industrial output, technological advancements, and expanding influence in global markets underscored its emergence as an economic powerhouse. The rapid rise of China prompted a reevaluation of economic strategies in the West. The European Union, recognizing the need for greater unity in the face of growing Chinese power, extended membership to the Russian Federation, Belarus, and Ukraine in 2002. This move was part of a broader effort to integrate Eastern Europe and strengthen the economic and political cohesion of the continent. The integration of Russia into EU was particularly significant. The Second Russian Civil War had left the country devastated, but it also provided an opportunity for a fresh start. The Nationalists, having emerged victorious, were eager to align with the West and distance themselves from the legacy of communism. The prospect of EU membership offered security guarantees and access to Western markets, which were crucial for Russia's reconstruction.
NATO Expansion
The strategic partnership between the United States and the newly aligned states of the former Soviet Union led to a further reconfiguration of global alliances. In the United States, the election of President Mitt Romney in 2008 marked a new era of transatlantic and trans-Eurasian cooperation. Recognizing the strategic importance of countering China's influence, Romney successfully convinced Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan to join NATO. This unprecedented expansion of the alliance aimed to create a united front against the burgeoning Chinese threat.
The inclusion of these nations into NATO marked a significant shift in the balance of power. The alliance, now bolstered by the addition of former Soviet states, presented a formidable counterweight to China's dominance in the region. The new NATO members brought with them valuable resources, strategic locations, and a renewed commitment to collective security.
China Rise and Global Dynamics
As China consolidated its power and influence, the global order faced unprecedented changes. The rise of China as a global superpower reshaped international trade, diplomacy, and security dynamics. The expansion of Chinese territory and economic clout brought new challenges and opportunities for nations around the world. The reconfigured world saw a new equilibrium, with China at the center of a rapidly evolving global landscape. The former Soviet states, now integrated into Western alliances, played a crucial role in shaping the future of Europe and Eurasia. The United States, having navigated the complexities of a post-nuclear world, faced the task of managing its relationship with the rising Chinese power while maintaining stability in its newly expanded alliance.